State Farm Arena · Neutral site
Closing line
UNC -2.5✓ OSU covered by 1.5
UNC -2.5✓ OSU covered by 1.5Closing total157.5Under by 16.5
| UNC | This season | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| 10-1 | Record | 8-2 |
| 7-4 | ATS | 4-6 |
| 3-8 | O/U | 6-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UNC 80–79 OSU · ✓ UNC (53%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNC | 34 | 37 | 71 |
| OSU | 31 | 39 | 70 |
1st half: UNC 34, OSU 31 (UNC by 3). The model had UNC by 0.7 and a total of 74.4 (actual 65).
Team stats
| UNC | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-63 44% | Field goals | 25-63 40% |
| 8-27 30% | 3-pointers | 4-20 20% |
| 7-13 54% | Free throws | 16-19 84% |
| 39 12 off | Rebounds | 39 13 off |
| 22 | Assists | 17 |
| 4 | Steals | 5 |
| 5 | Blocks | 3 |
| 7 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 19 | Fouls | 16 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 38 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 5 |
Players
| UNC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Trimble G | 36 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 6-13 | 3-5 |
| Caleb Wilson F | 34 | 20 | 15 | 2 | 9-16 | 0-0 |
| Henri Veesaar C | 32 | 17 | 10 | 5 | 7-12 | 2-5 |
| Kyan Evans G | 16 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Luka Bogavac G | 13 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jarin Stevenson F | 27 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 3-7 | 0-4 |
| Derek Dixon G | 24 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1-5 | 1-3 |
| Jonathan Powell G | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Jaydon Young G | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
Did not play: Elijah Davis, James Brown, Isaiah Denis, John Holbrook, Ivan Matlekovic, Evan Smith, Zayden High
| OSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruce Thornton G | 37 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 7-16 | 0-4 |
| Devin Royal F | 36 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 6-12 | 2-2 |
| John Mobley Jr. G | 32 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 3-11 | 2-6 |
| Christoph Tilly C | 28 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 4-9 | 0-3 |
| Amare Bynum F | 27 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 5-11 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Brandon Noel F | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Colin White F | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Ivan Njegovan C | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Gabe Cupps G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Taison Chatman G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Braylen Nash, Josh Ojianwuna, Myles Herro, Mathieu Grujicic
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUNC -2.5
no move
CloseUNC -2.5
No change since the open
Total
Open152.5
▲ 5
Close157.5
Up 5 since the open
Moneyline
UNC -155 · OSU +130
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UNC -2.5 · unchangedmodel UNC -1
model UNC -1
Opened 152.5 · closed 157.5 · moved 5 upmodel 159
model 159
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UNC -2.5 | UNC -0.9 | OSU +1.6 | W OSU covered |
| Total | 157.5 | 158.9 | Over 1.4 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | UNC 79.9 · OSU 79 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | UNC -0.7 | UNC -3.0 |
| 1H total | 74.4 | 65 |
| 1H projected score | UNC 37.5 · OSU 36.8 | UNC 34 · OSU 31 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNC | 9-1 90% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
| OSU | 8-2 80% | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
UNC 1–0 OSUUNC leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · UNC 1-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2022-23 | OSU 84 vs UNC 89 | UNC -2.5 | UNC W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
North Carolina
11 games played
Straight up
10-1
91% wins
Against the spread
7-4
64% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-8
27% overs · avg −11.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CARK | W 94-54 | -31.5 | W +8.5 | 157.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 7 | vs KU | W 87-74 | -2.5 | W +10.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 11 | vs RAD | W 89-74 | -20.5 | L −5.5 | 162.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 14 | vs NCCU | W 97-53 | -34.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 18 | vs NAVY | W 73-61 | -26.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 25 | vs SBU | W 85-70 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 27 | vs MSU | L 58-74 | +1.5 | L −14.5 | 152.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 2 | @ UK | W 67-64 | +7.5 | W +10.5 | 163.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 7 | vs GTWN | W 81-61 | -10.5 | W +9.5 | 149.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 13 | vs UPST | W 80-62 | -29.5 | L −11.5 | 151.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 16 | vs ETSU | W 77-58 | -17.5 | W +1.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCARK
CARKW 94-54
+8.5
7
vsKU
KUW 87-74
+10.5
11
vsRAD
RADW 89-74
−5.5
14
vsNCCU
NCCUW 97-53
+9.5
18
vsNAVY
NAVYW 73-61
−14.5
25
vsSBU
SBUW 85-70
+4.5
27
vsMSU
MSUL 58-74
−14.5
2
@UK
UKW 67-64
+10.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNW 81-61
+9.5
13
vsUPST
UPSTW 80-62
−11.5
16
vsETSU
ETSUW 77-58
+1.5
covered 7didn’t cover 4avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCARK
CARKW 94-54
−9.5
7
vsKU
KUW 87-74
+1.5
11
vsRAD
RADW 89-74
+0.5
14
vsNCCU
NCCUW 97-53
−9.5
18
vsNAVY
NAVYW 73-61
−26.5
25
vsSBU
SBUW 85-70
+2.5
27
vsMSU
MSUL 58-74
−20.5
2
@UK
UKW 67-64
−32.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNW 81-61
−7.5
13
vsUPST
UPSTW 80-62
−9.5
16
vsETSU
ETSUW 77-58
−15.5
over 3under 8avg −11.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Ohio State
10 games played
Straight up
8-2
80% wins
Against the spread
4-6
40% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-4
60% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs IUIN | W 118-102 | -33.5 | L −17.5 | 172.5 | O 220 |
| Nov 7 | vs PFW | W 94-68 | -24.5 | W +1.5 | 159.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 11 | vs APP | W 75-53 | -23.5 | L −1.5 | 147.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 16 | vs ND | W 64-63 | -9.5 | L −8.5 | 156.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 20 | vs WMU | W 91-58 | -26.5 | W +6.5 | 159.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 25 | vs MSM | W 113-60 | -30.5 | W +22.5 | 151.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 28 | @ PITT | L 66-67 | -5.5 | L −6.5 | 148.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 6 | @ NU | W 86-82 | -1.5 | W +2.5 | 155.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 9 | vs ILL | L 80-88 | +3.5 | L −4.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 13 | vs WVU | W 89-88 | -3.5 | L −2.5 | 145.5 | O 177 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsIUIN
IUINW 118-102
−17.5
7
vsPFW
PFWW 94-68
+1.5
11
vsAPP
APPW 75-53
−1.5
16
vsND
NDW 64-63
−8.5
20
vsWMU
WMUW 91-58
+6.5
25
vsMSM
MSMW 113-60
+22.5
28
@PITT
PITTL 66-67
−6.5
6
@NU
NUW 86-82
+2.5
9
vsILL
ILLL 80-88
−4.5
13
vsWVU
WVUW 89-88
−2.5
covered 4didn’t cover 6avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsIUIN
IUINW 118-102
+47.5
7
vsPFW
PFWW 94-68
+2.5
11
vsAPP
APPW 75-53
−19.5
16
vsND
NDW 64-63
−29.5
20
vsWMU
WMUW 91-58
−10.5
25
vsMSM
MSMW 113-60
+21.5
28
@PITT
PITTL 66-67
−15.5
6
@NU
NUW 86-82
+12.5
9
vsILL
ILLL 80-88
+5.5
13
vsWVU
WVUW 89-88
+31.5
over 6under 4avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
North Carolina
10-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs ETSU77–58
- Wvs SC Upstate80–62
- Wvs Georgetown81–61
- W@ Kentucky67–64
- Lvs Michigan St58–74
4 days since their last game.
Ohio State
8-2 overall · 1-1 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs West Virginia89–88
- Lvs Illinois80–88
- W@ Northwestern86–82
- L@ Pitt66–67
- Wvs Mount St Marys113–60
A week or more of rest.