Ohio State Buckeyes at Pittsburgh Panthers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 28, 7:00 PM ETPetersen Events Center · at Pitt

Final

#74PITTPitt67▲ winner

Closing lineOSU -5.5✓ PITT covered by 6.5

Closing total148.5Under by 15.5

Season records: Ohio State and Pitt
OSU	This season	PITT
6-0	Record	4-3
3-3	ATS	3-4
3-3	O/U	2-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: OSU 79–72 PITT · ✗ OSU (72%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
OSU	24	42	66
PITT	34	33	67

1st half: OSU 24, PITT 34 (PITT by 10). The model had OSU by 4.2 and a total of 70.7 (actual 58).

Team stats

OSU		PITT
23-54 43%	Field goals	26-69 38%
7-24 29%	3-pointers	5-22 23%
13-15 87%	Free throws	10-16 63%
38 9 off	Rebounds	39 16 off
8	Assists	6
3	Steals	9
4	Blocks	3
13	Turnovers	5
17	Fouls	17
30	Points in paint	38
2	Fast-break points	11

Players

OSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Devin Royal F	39	22	2	2	9-15	4-8
Bruce Thornton G	38	18	13	1	7-15	1-5
Christoph Tilly C	32	10	6	0	1-8	0-2
John Mobley Jr. G	14	3	1	0	1-3	1-3
Brandon Noel F	9	0	0	1	0-2	0-2
Bench
Amare Bynum F	31	7	5	0	3-5	1-2
Gabe Cupps G	27	2	4	3	0-2	0-2
Ivan Njegovan C	8	4	4	1	2-4	0-0
Colin White F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Taison Chatman G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Braylen Nash, Myles Herro, Mathieu Grujicic, Josh Ojianwuna

PITT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Barry Dunning Jr. G	39	18	5	0	8-13	1-6
Omari Witherspoon G	37	11	4	2	4-14	0-3
Damarco Minor G	37	18	2	2	7-14	3-8
Cameron Corhen F	36	18	10	1	6-14	1-2
Roman Siulepa F	24	2	7	0	1-9	0-2
Bench
Nojus Indrusaitis G	20	0	2	1	0-3	0-1
Papa Amadou Kante F	7	0	1	0	0-2	0-0

Did not play: Dishon Jackson, Benjamin Mayhew, Jajuan Nelson, Macari Moore, Brandin Cummings, Amdy Ndiaye, Henry Lau, Kieran Mullen

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	OSU -5.5	OSU -6.6	OSU +1.1	L PITT covered
Total	148.5	150.9	Over 2.4	L Under
Projected score	—	OSU 78.8 · PITT 72.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	OSU -4.2	PITT -10.0
1H total	70.7	58
1H projected score	OSU 37.4 · PITT 33.2	OSU 24 · PITT 34

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OSU WLLWW	3-3	50%	—	3-3
PITT LLWLL	3-4	43%	3-2	0-1

Venue/role: OSU away, as favorite; PITT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
OSU OUUUO	3-3	50%	6-0
PITT OUUUO	2-5	29%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OSUlast 6	6-0 100%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
PITTlast 7	4-3 57%	3-4 43%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

OSU 0–1 PITTPITT leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · OSU 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 29, 2024-25	PITT 91 @ OSU 90	OSU -5.5	PITT W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Ohio State

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

O O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsIUIN	W 118-102	-33.5	L −17.5	172.5	O 220
Nov 7	vsPFW	W 94-68	-24.5	W +1.5	159.5	O 162
Nov 11	vsAPP	W 75-53	-23.5	L −1.5	147.5	U 128
Nov 16	vsND	W 64-63	-9.5	L −8.5	156.5	U 127
Nov 20	vsWMU	W 91-58	-26.5	W +6.5	159.5	U 149
Nov 25	vsMSM	W 113-60	-30.5	W +22.5	151.5	O 173

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IUIN

W 118-102

−17.5

PFW

W 94-68

+1.5

APP

W 75-53

−1.5

W 64-63

−8.5

WMU

W 91-58

+6.5

MSM

W 113-60

+22.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IUIN

W 118-102

+47.5

PFW

W 94-68

+2.5

APP

W 75-53

−19.5

W 64-63

−29.5

WMU

W 91-58

−10.5

MSM

W 113-60

+21.5

over 3under 3avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pitt

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −4.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −3.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsYSU	W 74-59	-14.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 133
Nov 7	vsLONG	W 78-60	-14.5	W +3.5	145.5	U 138
Nov 10	vsEMU	W 78-66	-15.5	L −3.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 13	@WVU	L 49-71	+5.5	L −16.5	134.5	U 120
Nov 17	vsBUCK	W 84-50	-16.5	W +17.5	141.5	U 134
Nov 20	vsUCF	L 67-77	-1.5	L −11.5	149.5	U 144
Nov 23	vsQUIN	L 75-83	-12.5	L −20.5	140.5	O 158

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

YSU

W 74-59

+0.5

LONG

W 78-60

+3.5

EMU

W 78-66

−3.5

WVU

L 49-71

−16.5

BUCK

W 84-50

+17.5

UCF

L 67-77

−11.5

QUIN

L 75-83

−20.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

YSU

W 74-59

−12.5

LONG

W 78-60

−7.5

EMU

W 78-66

+2.5

WVU

L 49-71

−14.5

BUCK

W 84-50

−7.5

UCF

L 67-77

−5.5

QUIN

L 75-83

+17.5

over 2under 5avg −3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Pittsburgh Panthers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Ohio State

Pitt

Ohio State

Pitt