Pittsburgh Panthers vs UCF Knights: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 20, 7:00 PM ETOcean Center · Neutral site

#74PITTPitt67final

Final

#39UCFUCF77▲ winner

Closing linePITT -1.5✓ UCF covered by 11.5

Closing total149.5Under by 5.5

Season records: Pitt and UCF
PITT	This season	UCF
4-1	Record	4-1
3-2	ATS	2-3
1-4	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: PITT 76–78 UCF · ✓ UCF (55%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
PITT	36	31	67
UCF	38	39	77

1st half: PITT 36, UCF 38 (UCF by 2). The model had UCF by 0.7 and a total of 72.0 (actual 74).

Team stats

PITT		UCF
21-54 39%	Field goals	32-61 52%
7-27 26%	3-pointers	6-18 33%
18-21 86%	Free throws	7-12 58%
28 12 off	Rebounds	37 16 off
9	Assists	13
4	Steals	4
5	Blocks	0
12	Turnovers	11
16	Fouls	15
28	Points in paint	46
0	Fast-break points	10

Players

PITT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Cameron Corhen F	35	17	11	2	6-13	0-4
Damarco Minor G	33	14	4	4	5-8	4-7
Brandin Cummings G	30	7	0	1	2-9	0-3
Omari Witherspoon G	25	3	1	0	1-4	0-2
Roman Siulepa F	12	2	0	0	1-3	0-0
Bench
Barry Dunning Jr. G	33	14	6	1	3-7	2-6
Nojus Indrusaitis G	26	8	1	1	2-8	1-5
Papa Amadou Kante F	6	2	2	0	1-2	0-0

Did not play: Benjamin Mayhew, Jajuan Nelson, Macari Moore, Amdy Ndiaye, Henry Lau, Kieran Mullen, Dishon Jackson

UCF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Themus Fulks G	33	18	2	4	7-12	3-3
Jamichael Stillwell F	32	12	11	2	5-9	1-2
Riley Kugel G	25	18	4	4	8-14	1-3
Jordan Burks F	24	9	4	0	4-9	0-4
John Bol C	22	6	6	0	3-4	0-0
Bench
Carmelo Pacheco G	23	5	1	1	1-3	1-3
Devan Cambridge F	19	5	4	1	2-4	0-1
George Beale Jr. G	8	2	0	0	1-4	0-2
Kris Parker G	7	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Chris Johnson G	5	0	2	1	0-0	0-0
Jeremy Foumena C	2	2	0	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Elijah Hulsewe, Poohpha Warakulnukroh, Zachary Johnson, Tanner Jones

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	PITT -1.5	UCF -1.4	UCF +2.9	W UCF covered
Total	149.5	153.7	Over 4.2	L Under
Projected score	—	PITT 76.1 · UCF 77.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UCF -0.7	UCF -2.0
1H total	72.0	74
1H projected score	PITT 35.6 · UCF 36.3	PITT 36 · UCF 38

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
PITT WWLLW	3-2	60%	—	3-1
UCF LLWWL	2-3	40%	—	1-1

Venue/role: PITT neutral site, as favorite; UCF neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PITT UUOUU	1-4	20%	4-1
UCF OOUUO	3-2	60%	4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PITTlast 5	4-1 80%	3-2 60%	1-4 20%
UCFlast 5	4-1 80%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pitt

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-4

20% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-420%

U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsYSU	W 74-59	-14.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 133
Nov 7	vsLONG	W 78-60	-14.5	W +3.5	145.5	U 138
Nov 10	vsEMU	W 78-66	-15.5	L −3.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 13	@WVU	L 49-71	+5.5	L −16.5	134.5	U 120
Nov 17	vsBUCK	W 84-50	-16.5	W +17.5	141.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

YSU

W 74-59

+0.5

LONG

W 78-60

+3.5

EMU

W 78-66

−3.5

WVU

L 49-71

−16.5

BUCK

W 84-50

+17.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

YSU

W 74-59

−12.5

LONG

W 78-60

−7.5

EMU

W 78-66

+2.5

WVU

L 49-71

−14.5

BUCK

W 84-50

−7.5

over 1under 4avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

UCF

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg +4.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-260%

O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsHOF	W 82-78	-8.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 160
Nov 8	vsVAN	L 93-105	+10.5	L −1.5	166.5	O 198
Nov 11	vsFAMU	W 97-60	-23.5	W +13.5	169.5	U 157
Nov 14	@TA&M	W 86-74	+10.5	W +22.5	172.5	U 160
Nov 17	vsOAK	W 87-83	-13.5	L −9.5	163.5	O 170

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HOF

W 82-78

−4.5

VAN

L 93-105

−1.5

FAMU

W 97-60

+13.5

TA&M

W 86-74

+22.5

OAK

W 87-83

−9.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg +4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HOF

W 82-78

+19.5

VAN

L 93-105

+31.5

FAMU

W 97-60

−12.5

TA&M

W 86-74

−12.5

OAK

W 87-83

+6.5

over 3under 2avg +6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pittsburgh Panthers vs UCF Knights

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Pitt

UCF

Pitt

UCF