Colgate Raiders vs UAlbany Great Danes: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 28, 7:30 PM ETPlace Bell · Neutral site

#211COLGColgate69▲ winner

Final

#301UALBUAlbany67final

Closing lineCOLG -7.5✓ UALB covered by 5.5

Closing total141.5Under by 5.5

Season records: Colgate and UAlbany
COLG	This season	UALB
2-4	Record	0-4
5-1	ATS	1-3
3-3	O/U	0-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: COLG 80–71 UALB · ✓ COLG (76%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
COLG	28	41	69
UALB	36	31	67

1st half: COLG 28, UALB 36 (UALB by 8). The model had COLG by 5.2 and a total of 70.6 (actual 64).

Team stats

COLG		UALB
28-60 47%	Field goals	29-59 49%
10-27 37%	3-pointers	8-20 40%
3-9 33%	Free throws	1-3 33%
32 9 off	Rebounds	33 8 off
17	Assists	12
8	Steals	7
2	Blocks	2
9	Turnovers	12
11	Fouls	13
34	Points in paint	38
6	Fast-break points	8

Players

COLG	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jalen Cox G	37	17	5	7	7-15	1-4
Andrew Alekseyenko F	27	4	5	2	2-7	0-1
Sam Wright F	23	16	6	2	7-12	1-5
Brady Cummins G	19	5	2	0	2-8	1-4
Ben Tweedy G	17	3	1	2	1-3	1-2
Bench
Kyle Carlesimo G	26	15	2	0	5-9	5-9
Josh Ahayere G	21	7	5	1	3-5	1-2
Ayomi Odetoyinbo F	17	2	2	1	1-1	0-0
Cooper Wright F	13	0	2	2	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Parker Jones, Stevie Clark, Cameron Brennan, Blake Forrest, Ethan Brown, Charlie Pugh, Jonathan Niv

UALB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Amir Lindsey G	37	16	5	5	6-10	4-4
Jaden Kempson G	35	7	3	3	3-9	1-3
Okechukwu Okeke F	31	15	3	2	7-11	0-0
Isaac Abidde F	30	9	5	0	4-9	1-4
Zacharie Matulu G	29	11	4	1	5-6	1-2
Bench
Nasir Muhammad PG	12	3	5	1	1-5	1-3
Ma'Kye Taylor F	10	2	1	0	1-5	0-3
Yaya Keita C	8	4	3	0	2-3	0-0
Miles Rose G	8	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Will Richardson, Ife West-Ingram, Tarique Foster, Sully Adewale, Wilkin Paulino, Abdoulaye Fall, Bautista Giralt

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	COLG -7.5	COLG -8.3	COLG +0.8	L UALB covered
Total	141.5	150.7	Over 9.2	L Under
Projected score	—	COLG 79.5 · UALB 71.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	COLG -5.2	UALB -8.0
1H total	70.6	64
1H projected score	COLG 37.9 · UALB 32.7	COLG 28 · UALB 36

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
COLG LWWWW	5-1	83%	—	1-1
UALB LLLW	1-3	25%	—	1-3

Venue/role: COLG neutral site, as favorite; UALB neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
COLG UOUUO	3-3	50%	2-4
UALB UUUU	0-4	0%	0-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
COLGlast 6	2-4 33%	5-1 83%	3-3 50%
UALBlast 4	0-4 0%	1-3 25%	0-4 0%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Colgate

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

5-1

83% covers · avg +5.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +4.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-183%

W L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

O U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MSU	L 69-80	+22.5	W +11.5	144.5	O 149
Nov 7	vsNE	L 65-68	-5.5	L −8.5	147.5	U 133
Nov 11	vsDREX	W 90-83	-3.5	W +3.5	143.5	O 173
Nov 14	@ILL	L 65-84	+30.5	W +11.5	164.5	U 149
Nov 17	@SIE	W 72-69	+6.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 141
Nov 20	@COR	L 94-95	+5.5	W +4.5	161.5	O 189

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MSU

L 69-80

+11.5

L 65-68

−8.5

DREX

W 90-83

+3.5

ILL

L 65-84

+11.5

SIE

W 72-69

+9.5

COR

L 94-95

+4.5

covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MSU

L 69-80

+4.5

L 65-68

−14.5

DREX

W 90-83

+29.5

ILL

L 65-84

−15.5

SIE

W 72-69

−5.5

COR

L 94-95

+27.5

over 3under 3avg +4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

UAlbany

4 games played

Straight up

0-4

0% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −4.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-4

0% overs · avg −10.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-325%

L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

0-40%

U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MARQ	L 53-80	+24.5	L −2.5	149.5	U 133
Nov 8	@MASS	L 62-83	+9.5	L −11.5	155.5	U 145
Nov 14	@URI	L 61-80	+15.5	L −3.5	150.5	U 141
Nov 21	@SIE	L 63-73	+10.5	W +0.5	140.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MARQ

L 53-80

−2.5

MASS

L 62-83

−11.5

URI

L 61-80

−3.5

SIE

L 63-73

+0.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MARQ

L 53-80

−16.5

MASS

L 62-83

−10.5

URI

L 61-80

−9.5

SIE

L 63-73

−4.5

over 0under 4avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Colgate Raiders vs UAlbany Great Danes

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Colgate

UAlbany

Colgate

UAlbany