Haas Pavilion · at California · Conference game
Closing line
UNC -7.5✓ CAL covered by 13.5
UNC -7.5✓ CAL covered by 13.5Closing total151.5Over by 10.5
| UNC | This season | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| 14-3 | Record | 12-5 |
| 9-8 | ATS | 8-9 |
| 7-10 | O/U | 7-10 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UNC 78–72 CAL · ✗ UNC (68%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNC | 37 | 41 | 78 |
| CAL | 54 | 30 | 84 |
1st half: UNC 37, CAL 54 (CAL by 17). The model had UNC by 3.4 and a total of 70.1 (actual 91).
Team stats
| UNC | CAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-56 46% | Field goals | 29-58 50% |
| 9-27 33% | 3-pointers | 14-26 54% |
| 17-28 61% | Free throws | 12-16 75% |
| 34 10 off | Rebounds | 34 8 off |
| 16 | Assists | 20 |
| 10 | Steals | 6 |
| 4 | Blocks | 1 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 15 | Fouls | 20 |
| 32 | Points in paint | 18 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| UNC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Wilson F | 34 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 6-12 | 0-1 |
| Henri Veesaar C | 33 | 14 | 10 | 2 | 5-11 | 1-6 |
| Derek Dixon G | 30 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 5-11 | 4-8 |
| Seth Trimble G | 29 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 2-6 | 1-2 |
| Jarin Stevenson F | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Luka Bogavac G | 20 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 3-5 | 1-2 |
| Jaydon Young G | 14 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Jonathan Powell G | 11 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Kyan Evans G | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Zayden High F | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Evan Smith, Ivan Matlekovic, John Holbrook, Isaiah Denis, James Brown, Elijah Davis
| CAL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Camden F | 34 | 20 | 2 | 4 | 7-14 | 4-8 |
| Justin Pippen G | 34 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 5-8 | 3-4 |
| Dai Dai Ames G | 32 | 19 | 0 | 3 | 8-14 | 3-5 |
| Chris Bell F | 24 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1-6 | 1-4 |
| Lee Dort F | 24 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 3-7 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Milos Ilic C | 14 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| DeJuan Campbell G | 14 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Semetri Carr G | 12 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Mantas Kocanas C | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Nolan Dorsey G | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Dhiaukuei Manyiel Dut, Luke Butler, Jorell Clark, BJ Fisher, Stephon Marbury II, Jovani Ruff, Rytis Petraitis, Sammie Yeanay
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUNC -7.5
ModelUNC -5.5
Model edgeCAL +2.0
W CAL covered
Total
Market151.5
Model149.6
Model edgeUnder 1.9
L Over
Projected score
UNC 77.5 · CAL 72
UNC 78 · CAL 84
Win probability
UNC 68%
1st half
Spread
UNC -3.4
CAL -17.0
Total
70.1
91 points
Projected score
UNC 36.7 · CAL 33.3
UNC 37 · CAL 54
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUNC -3.5
4 → UNC
CloseUNC -7.5
4 pts toward UNC
Total
Open148.5
▲ 3
Close151.5
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
UNC -305 · CAL +245
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UNC -3.5 · closed UNC -7.5 · moved 4 toward UNCmodel UNC -5.5
model UNC -5.5
Opened 148.5 · closed 151.5 · moved 3 upmodel 149.5
model 149.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNC | 8-2 80% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
| CAL | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
UNC 1–0 CALUNC leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · UNC 1-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2024-25 | CAL 53 @ UNC 79 | UNC -15.5 | UNC W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
North Carolina
17 games played
Straight up
14-3
82% wins
Against the spread
9-8
53% covers · avg +0 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-10
41% overs · avg −4.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CARK | W 94-54 | -31.5 | W +8.5 | 157.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 7 | vs KU | W 87-74 | -2.5 | W +10.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 11 | vs RAD | W 89-74 | -20.5 | L −5.5 | 162.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 14 | vs NCCU | W 97-53 | -34.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 18 | vs NAVY | W 73-61 | -26.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 25 | vs SBU | W 85-70 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 27 | vs MSU | L 58-74 | +1.5 | L −14.5 | 152.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 2 | @ UK | W 67-64 | +7.5 | W +10.5 | 163.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 7 | vs GTWN | W 81-61 | -10.5 | W +9.5 | 149.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 13 | vs UPST | W 80-62 | -29.5 | L −11.5 | 151.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 16 | vs ETSU | W 77-58 | -17.5 | W +1.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 20 | vs OSU | W 71-70 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 157.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 22 | vs ECU | W 99-51 | -25.5 | W +22.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 30 | vs FSU | W 79-66 | -12.5 | W +0.5 | 166.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 3 | @ SMU | L 83-97 | +1.5 | L −12.5 | 155.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 10 | vs WAKE | W 87-84 | -10.5 | L −7.5 | 154.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 14 | @ STAN | L 90-95 | -4.5 | L −9.5 | 147.5 | O 185 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCARK
CARKW 94-54
+8.5
7
vsKU
KUW 87-74
+10.5
11
vsRAD
RADW 89-74
−5.5
14
vsNCCU
NCCUW 97-53
+9.5
18
vsNAVY
NAVYW 73-61
−14.5
25
vsSBU
SBUW 85-70
+4.5
27
vsMSU
MSUL 58-74
−14.5
2
@UK
UKW 67-64
+10.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNW 81-61
+9.5
13
vsUPST
UPSTW 80-62
−11.5
16
vsETSU
ETSUW 77-58
+1.5
20
vsOSU
OSUW 71-70
−1.5
22
vsECU
ECUW 99-51
+22.5
30
vsFSU
FSUW 79-66
+0.5
3
@SMU
SMUL 83-97
−12.5
10
vsWAKE
WAKEW 87-84
−7.5
14
@STAN
STANL 90-95
−9.5
covered 9didn’t cover 8avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCARK
CARKW 94-54
−9.5
7
vsKU
KUW 87-74
+1.5
11
vsRAD
RADW 89-74
+0.5
14
vsNCCU
NCCUW 97-53
−9.5
18
vsNAVY
NAVYW 73-61
−26.5
25
vsSBU
SBUW 85-70
+2.5
27
vsMSU
MSUL 58-74
−20.5
2
@UK
UKW 67-64
−32.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNW 81-61
−7.5
13
vsUPST
UPSTW 80-62
−9.5
16
vsETSU
ETSUW 77-58
−15.5
20
vsOSU
OSUW 71-70
−16.5
22
vsECU
ECUW 99-51
+5.5
30
vsFSU
FSUW 79-66
−21.5
3
@SMU
SMUL 83-97
+24.5
10
vsWAKE
WAKEW 87-84
+16.5
14
@STAN
STANL 90-95
+37.5
over 7under 10avg −4.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
California
17 games played
Straight up
12-5
71% wins
Against the spread
8-9
47% covers · avg +1.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-10
41% overs · avg −1.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CSUB | W 87-60 | -15.5 | W +11.5 | 147.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 6 | vs WRST | W 77-67 | -14.5 | L −4.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 10 | vs CSUF | W 93-65 | -22.5 | W +5.5 | 162.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 13 | @ KSU | L 96-99 | +6.5 | W +3.5 | 164.5 | O 195 |
| Nov 18 | vs PRES | W 67-57 | -10.5 | L −0.5 | 124.5 | U 124 |
| Nov 21 | vs SAC | W 91-67 | -21.5 | W +2.5 | 154.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 25 | vs UCLA | W 80-72 | +7.5 | W +15.5 | 143.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 2 | vs UTAH | W 79-72 | -7.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 6 | vs PAC | W 67-61 | -7.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 13 | vs NWST | W 79-70 | -19.5 | L −10.5 | 145.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 19 | vs MORG | W 97-50 | -26.5 | W +20.5 | 151.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 21 | vs COLU | W 74-56 | -8.5 | W +9.5 | 153.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 30 | vs LOU | L 70-90 | +7.5 | L −12.5 | 159.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 2 | vs ND | W 72-71 | -3.5 | L −2.5 | 138.5 | O 143 |
| Jan 7 | @ UVA | L 60-84 | +14.5 | L −9.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 10 | @ VT | L 75-78 | +5.5 | W +2.5 | 148.5 | O 153 |
| Jan 14 | vs DUKE | L 56-71 | +14.5 | L −0.5 | 149.5 | U 127 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCSUB
CSUBW 87-60
+11.5
6
vsWRST
WRSTW 77-67
−4.5
10
vsCSUF
CSUFW 93-65
+5.5
13
@KSU
KSUL 96-99
+3.5
18
vsPRES
PRESW 67-57
−0.5
21
vsSAC
SACW 91-67
+2.5
25
vsUCLA
UCLAW 80-72
+15.5
2
vsUTAH
UTAHW 79-72
−0.5
6
vsPAC
PACW 67-61
−1.5
13
vsNWST
NWSTW 79-70
−10.5
19
vsMORG
MORGW 97-50
+20.5
21
vsCOLU
COLUW 74-56
+9.5
30
vsLOU
LOUL 70-90
−12.5
2
vsND
NDW 72-71
−2.5
7
@UVA
UVAL 60-84
−9.5
10
@VT
VTL 75-78
+2.5
14
vsDUKE
DUKEL 56-71
−0.5
covered 8didn’t cover 9avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCSUB
CSUBW 87-60
−0.5
6
vsWRST
WRSTW 77-67
−4.5
10
vsCSUF
CSUFW 93-65
−4.5
13
@KSU
KSUL 96-99
+30.5
18
vsPRES
PRESW 67-57
−0.5
21
vsSAC
SACW 91-67
+3.5
25
vsUCLA
UCLAW 80-72
+8.5
2
vsUTAH
UTAHW 79-72
−1.5
6
vsPAC
PACW 67-61
−16.5
13
vsNWST
NWSTW 79-70
+3.5
19
vsMORG
MORGW 97-50
−4.5
21
vsCOLU
COLUW 74-56
−23.5
30
vsLOU
LOUL 70-90
+0.5
2
vsND
NDW 72-71
+4.5
7
@UVA
UVAL 60-84
−4.5
10
@VT
VTL 75-78
+4.5
14
vsDUKE
DUKEL 56-71
−22.5
over 7under 10avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
North Carolina
14-3 overall · 2-2 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Stanford90–95
- Wvs Wake Forest87–84
- L@ SMU83–97
- Wvs Florida St79–66
- Wvs East Carolina99–51
3 days since their last game.
California
12-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Duke56–71
- L@ Virginia Tech75–78
- L@ Virginia60–84
- Wvs Notre Dame72–71
- Lvs Louisville70–90
3 days since their last game.