Wake Forest Demon Deacons at North Carolina Tar Heels: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 10, 6:00 PM ETDean E. Smith Center · at North Carolina · Conference game

Final

#44UNCNorth Carolina AP #1787▲ winner

Closing lineUNC -10.5✓ WAKE covered by 7.5

Closing total154.5Over by 16.5

Season records: Wake Forest and North Carolina
WAKE	This season	UNC
10-6	Record	13-2
6-10	ATS	9-6
9-7	O/U	5-10

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: WAKE 72–80 UNC · ✓ UNC (77%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
WAKE	38	46	84
UNC	49	38	87

1st half: WAKE 38, UNC 49 (UNC by 11). The model had UNC by 4.9 and a total of 71.0 (actual 87).

Team stats

WAKE		UNC
31-64 48%	Field goals	29-55 53%
14-35 40%	3-pointers	9-26 35%
8-11 73%	Free throws	20-30 67%
27 10 off	Rebounds	35 13 off
13	Assists	20
9	Steals	10
0	Blocks	2
13	Turnovers	14
22	Fouls	13
30	Points in paint	40
13	Fast-break points	13

Players

WAKE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Juke Harris G	38	28	6	1	10-18	5-12
Nate Calmese G	35	28	4	9	10-16	7-11
Myles Colvin G	30	0	6	0	0-3	0-2
Omaha Biliew F	22	2	1	0	1-3	0-2
Tre'Von Spillers F	18	7	2	1	2-5	0-0
Bench
Cooper Schwieger F	29	9	0	2	4-10	1-4
Mekhi Mason G	22	9	3	0	4-9	1-4
Sebastian Akins G	6	1	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jaylen Cross, Isaac Carr, Dimitrije Kovacevic, Anson Beard Jr., Will Underwood, Vincent Ricchiuti, Marqus Marion

UNC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Caleb Wilson F	36	22	12	3	8-9	0-0
Henri Veesaar C	34	25	9	4	9-10	2-3
Seth Trimble G	33	10	3	4	3-7	0-1
Kyan Evans G	22	4	0	4	1-6	1-6
Jarin Stevenson F	21	4	2	1	1-6	0-2
Bench
Jaydon Young G	19	12	1	2	4-6	3-5
Derek Dixon G	13	4	1	1	1-5	1-4
Jonathan Powell G	12	6	1	0	2-2	2-2
Luka Bogavac G	9	0	0	1	0-4	0-3
Isaiah Denis G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Ivan Matlekovic, Evan Smith, John Holbrook, Elijah Davis, Zayden High, James Brown

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UNC -10.5	UNC -8.4	WAKE +2.1	W WAKE covered
Total	154.5	151.7	Under 2.8	L Over
Projected score	—	WAKE 71.7 · UNC 80.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNC -4.9	UNC -11.0
1H total	71.0	87
1H projected score	WAKE 33.1 · UNC 38	WAKE 38 · UNC 49

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WAKE LLLLL	6-10	38%	0-1	3-2
UNC WLWWL	9-6	60%	7-3	8-4

Venue/role: WAKE away, as underdog; UNC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WAKE UOUOO	9-7	56%	10-6
UNC UUOUO	5-10	33%	13-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WAKE	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
UNC	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22

WAKE 3–3 UNCSeries tied · 6 games since 2021-22 · WAKE 4-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 13, 2024-25	UNC 68 vs WAKE 59	WAKE +5.5	UNC W
Jan 21, 2024-25	UNC 66 @ WAKE 67	WAKE -0.5	WAKE W
Jan 22, 2023-24	WAKE 64 @ UNC 85	UNC -7.5	UNC W
Feb 7, 2022-23	UNC 85 @ WAKE 92	WAKE -0.5	WAKE W
Jan 4, 2022-23	WAKE 79 @ UNC 88	UNC -10.5	WAKE W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wake Forest

16 games played

Straight up

10-6

63% wins

Against the spread

6-10

38% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-7

56% overs · avg −1.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-663%

W W L W L W W W L W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-1038%

L L W W W L W L L W W L L L L L

5 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

9-756%

O U O O O U U O U U O U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsAMER	W 88-74	-19.5	L −5.5	139.5	O 162
Nov 7	vsMORE	W 81-65	-22.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 146
Nov 11	vsMICH	L 84-85	+15.5	W +14.5	168.5	O 169
Nov 16	vsUML	W 109-75	-30.5	W +3.5	165.5	O 184
Nov 20	vsTTU	L 83-84	+9.5	W +8.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 21	vsMEM	W 69-68	-2.5	L −1.5	160.5	U 137
Nov 25	vsCAM	W 99-51	-17.5	W +30.5	159.5	U 150
Nov 28	vsNE	W 86-73	-17.5	L −4.5	154.5	O 159
Dec 2	vsOU	L 68-86	-4.5	L −22.5	159.5	U 154
Dec 6	vsWVU	W 75-66	+2.5	W +11.5	143.5	U 141
Dec 14	vsQUC	W 111-73	-18.5	W +19.5	165.5	O 184
Dec 17	vsLONG	W 71-68	-24.5	L −21.5	163.5	U 139
Dec 21	vsVAN	L 67-98	+5.5	L −25.5	164.5	O 165
Dec 31	@NCSU	L 57-70	+10.5	L −2.5	159.5	U 127
Jan 3	vsVT	W 81-78	-5.5	L −2.5	153.5	O 159
Jan 7	vsMIA	L 77-81	-1.5	L −5.5	157.5	O 158

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AMER

W 88-74

−5.5

W 81-65

−6.5

MICH

L 84-85

+14.5

UML

W 109-75

+3.5

TTU

L 83-84

+8.5

MEM

W 69-68

−1.5

CAM

W 99-51

+30.5

W 86-73

−4.5

L 68-86

−22.5

WVU

W 75-66

+11.5

QUC

W 111-73

+19.5

LONG

W 71-68

−21.5

VAN

L 67-98

−25.5

NCSU

L 57-70

−2.5

W 81-78

−2.5

MIA

L 77-81

−5.5

covered 6didn’t cover 10avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AMER

W 88-74

+22.5

W 81-65

−6.5

MICH

L 84-85

+0.5

UML

W 109-75

+18.5

TTU

L 83-84

+6.5

MEM

W 69-68

−23.5

CAM

W 99-51

−9.5

W 86-73

+4.5

L 68-86

−5.5

WVU

W 75-66

−2.5

QUC

W 111-73

+18.5

LONG

W 71-68

−24.5

VAN

L 67-98

+0.5

NCSU

L 57-70

−32.5

W 81-78

+5.5

MIA

L 77-81

+0.5

over 9under 7avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

North Carolina

15 games played

Straight up

13-2

87% wins

Against the spread

9-6

60% covers · avg +1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-10

33% overs · avg −9 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-287%

W W W W W W L W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

9-660%

W W L W L W L W W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-1033%

U O O U U O U U U U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCARK	W 94-54	-31.5	W +8.5	157.5	U 148
Nov 7	vsKU	W 87-74	-2.5	W +10.5	159.5	O 161
Nov 11	vsRAD	W 89-74	-20.5	L −5.5	162.5	O 163
Nov 14	vsNCCU	W 97-53	-34.5	W +9.5	159.5	U 150
Nov 18	vsNAVY	W 73-61	-26.5	L −14.5	160.5	U 134
Nov 25	vsSBU	W 85-70	-10.5	W +4.5	152.5	O 155
Nov 27	vsMSU	L 58-74	+1.5	L −14.5	152.5	U 132
Dec 2	@UK	W 67-64	+7.5	W +10.5	163.5	U 131
Dec 7	vsGTWN	W 81-61	-10.5	W +9.5	149.5	U 142
Dec 13	vsUPST	W 80-62	-29.5	L −11.5	151.5	U 142
Dec 16	vsETSU	W 77-58	-17.5	W +1.5	150.5	U 135
Dec 20	vsOSU	W 71-70	-2.5	L −1.5	157.5	U 141
Dec 22	vsECU	W 99-51	-25.5	W +22.5	144.5	O 150
Dec 30	vsFSU	W 79-66	-12.5	W +0.5	166.5	U 145
Jan 3	@SMU	L 83-97	+1.5	L −12.5	155.5	O 180

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CARK

W 94-54

+8.5

W 87-74

+10.5

RAD

W 89-74

−5.5

NCCU

W 97-53

+9.5

NAVY

W 73-61

−14.5

SBU

W 85-70

+4.5

MSU

L 58-74

−14.5

W 67-64

+10.5

GTWN

W 81-61

+9.5

UPST

W 80-62

−11.5

ETSU

W 77-58

+1.5

OSU

W 71-70

−1.5

ECU

W 99-51

+22.5

FSU

W 79-66

+0.5

SMU

L 83-97

−12.5

covered 9didn’t cover 6avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CARK

W 94-54

−9.5

W 87-74

+1.5

RAD

W 89-74

+0.5

NCCU

W 97-53

−9.5

NAVY

W 73-61

−26.5

SBU

W 85-70

+2.5

MSU

L 58-74

−20.5

W 67-64

−32.5

GTWN

W 81-61

−7.5

UPST

W 80-62

−9.5

ETSU

W 77-58

−15.5

OSU

W 71-70

−16.5

ECU

W 99-51

+5.5

FSU

W 79-66

−21.5

SMU

L 83-97

+24.5

over 5under 10avg −9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at North Carolina Tar Heels

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Wake Forest

North Carolina

Wake Forest

North Carolina