Queens University Royals at Wake Forest Demon Deacons: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 14, 5:00 PM ETLJVM Coliseum · at Wake Forest

Final

#89WAKEWake Forest111▲ winner

Closing lineWAKE -18.5✓ WAKE covered by 19.5

Closing total165.5Over by 18.5

Season records: Queens University Royals and Wake Forest
QUC	This season	WAKE
4-5	Record	7-3
5-4	ATS	5-5
7-2	O/U	5-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: QUC 74–92 WAKE · ✓ WAKE (94%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
QUC	39	34	73
WAKE	57	54	111

1st half: QUC 39, WAKE 57 (WAKE by 18). The model had WAKE by 10.8 and a total of 78.0 (actual 96).

Team stats

QUC		WAKE
25-57 44%	Field goals	36-58 62%
12-38 32%	3-pointers	17-33 52%
11-15 73%	Free throws	22-24 92%
19 6 off	Rebounds	33 7 off
17	Assists	23
5	Steals	10
0	Blocks	2
13	Turnovers	10
20	Fouls	16
26	Points in paint	30
10	Fast-break points	13

Players

QUC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nasir Mann G	33	9	3	1	3-8	1-3
Carson Schwieger F	26	8	2	1	3-11	2-10
Jordan Watford G	24	5	0	7	2-3	0-1
Chris Ashby G	22	15	0	1	5-12	5-11
Avantae Parker F	19	14	4	1	6-6	0-0
Bench
Yoav Berman F	24	8	2	1	1-5	1-4
Maban Jabriel G	17	6	3	3	2-4	2-4
Gus Larson F	14	0	1	1	0-0	0-0
Isaiah Henry G	13	4	1	1	2-5	0-2
Kam Clark G	6	4	1	0	1-3	1-3
Reid Celestin F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Matthew Walter, Seamus Wilson, Saif-Allah Zatari, Tyler Crider, Jimma James, Danzelle Bullock Coles, Colby Christiansen, Jacob Brandly

WAKE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Myles Colvin G	28	33	8	3	11-13	7-8
Juke Harris G	27	14	5	3	3-11	1-6
Omaha Biliew F	25	16	2	2	5-7	4-6
Nate Calmese G	24	15	1	3	5-7	3-5
Tre'Von Spillers F	24	8	3	4	4-5	0-0
Bench
Sebastian Akins G	15	6	3	4	1-3	0-2
Mekhi Mason G	14	6	2	0	3-5	0-2
Marqus Marion F	13	3	5	3	1-1	0-0
Cooper Schwieger F	11	3	1	1	1-2	0-0
Isaac Carr G	9	1	1	0	0-2	0-2
Jaylen Cross G	6	3	1	0	1-1	1-1
Vincent Ricchiuti F	2	3	0	0	1-1	1-1
Will Underwood G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Anson Beard Jr. G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Dimitrije Kovacevic

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	WAKE -18.5	WAKE -18.1	QUC +0.4	L WAKE covered
Total	165.5	166.7	Over 1.2	W Over
Projected score	—	QUC 74.3 · WAKE 92.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WAKE -10.8	WAKE -18.0
1H total	78.0	96
1H projected score	QUC 33.6 · WAKE 44.4	QUC 39 · WAKE 57

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
QUC LLWWW	5-4	56%	2-2	2-3
WAKE LWLLW	5-5	50%	2-4	2-5

Venue/role: QUC away, as underdog; WAKE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
QUC OOOOO	7-2	78%	4-5
WAKE UUOUU	5-5	50%	7-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
QUClast 9	4-5 44%	5-4 56%	7-2 78%
WAKE	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Queens University Royals

9 games played

Straight up

4-5

44% wins

Against the spread

5-4

56% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-2

78% overs · avg +10.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-544%

L L L W W L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-456%

L L W W L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

7-278%

U O O U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWIN	L 74-81	+3.5	L −3.5	163.5	U 155
Nov 8	@VILL	L 74-94	+17.5	L −2.5	150.5	O 168
Nov 11	@DUQ	L 81-87	+12.5	W +6.5	162.5	O 168
Nov 15	vsSHU	W 81-64	-5.5	W +11.5	165.5	U 145
Nov 20	vsUNCG	W 101-94	-7.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 195
Nov 23	@FUR	L 79-90	+8.5	L −2.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 28	@UVA	L 69-94	+25.5	W +0.5	160.5	O 163
Dec 3	vsGWEB	W 107-74	-14.5	W +18.5	161.5	O 181
Dec 12	vsSCST	W 102-78	-18.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 180

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WIN

L 74-81

−3.5

VILL

L 74-94

−2.5

DUQ

L 81-87

+6.5

SHU

W 81-64

+11.5

UNCG

W 101-94

−0.5

FUR

L 79-90

−2.5

UVA

L 69-94

+0.5

GWEB

W 107-74

+18.5

SCST

W 102-78

+5.5

covered 5didn’t cover 4avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WIN

L 74-81

−8.5

VILL

L 74-94

+17.5

DUQ

L 81-87

+5.5

SHU

W 81-64

−20.5

UNCG

W 101-94

+44.5

FUR

L 79-90

+15.5

UVA

L 69-94

+2.5

GWEB

W 107-74

+19.5

SCST

W 102-78

+22.5

over 7under 2avg +10.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Wake Forest

10 games played

Straight up

7-3

70% wins

Against the spread

5-5

50% covers · avg +2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-5

50% overs · avg +0.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-370%

W W L W L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-550%

L L W W W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-550%

O U O O O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsAMER	W 88-74	-19.5	L −5.5	139.5	O 162
Nov 7	vsMORE	W 81-65	-22.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 146
Nov 11	vsMICH	L 84-85	+15.5	W +14.5	168.5	O 169
Nov 16	vsUML	W 109-75	-30.5	W +3.5	165.5	O 184
Nov 20	vsTTU	L 83-84	+9.5	W +8.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 21	vsMEM	W 69-68	-2.5	L −1.5	160.5	U 137
Nov 25	vsCAM	W 99-51	-17.5	W +30.5	159.5	U 150
Nov 28	vsNE	W 86-73	-17.5	L −4.5	154.5	O 159
Dec 2	vsOU	L 68-86	-4.5	L −22.5	159.5	U 154
Dec 6	vsWVU	W 75-66	+2.5	W +11.5	143.5	U 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AMER

W 88-74

−5.5

W 81-65

−6.5

MICH

L 84-85

+14.5

UML

W 109-75

+3.5

TTU

L 83-84

+8.5

MEM

W 69-68

−1.5

CAM

W 99-51

+30.5

W 86-73

−4.5

L 68-86

−22.5

WVU

W 75-66

+11.5

covered 5didn’t cover 5avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AMER

W 88-74

+22.5

W 81-65

−6.5

MICH

L 84-85

+0.5

UML

W 109-75

+18.5

TTU

L 83-84

+6.5

MEM

W 69-68

−23.5

CAM

W 99-51

−9.5

W 86-73

+4.5

L 68-86

−5.5

WVU

W 75-66

−2.5

over 5under 5avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Queens University Royals at Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Queens University Royals

Wake Forest

Queens University Royals

Wake Forest