John Paul Jones Arena · at Virginia
Closing line
UVA -25.5✓ QUC covered by 0.5
UVA -25.5✓ QUC covered by 0.5Closing total160.5Over by 2.5
 QUC | This season | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| 2-4 | Record | 5-1 |
| 2-4 | ATS | 4-2 |
| 4-2 | O/U | 2-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: QUC 70–90 UVA · ✓ UVA (96%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| QUC | 29 | 40 | 69 |
| UVA | 46 | 48 | 94 |
1st half: QUC 29, UVA 46 (UVA by 17). The model had UVA by 11.9 and a total of 75.2 (actual 75).
Team stats
| QUC | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-63 38% | Field goals | 32-60 53% |
| 9-29 31% | 3-pointers | 15-33 45% |
| 12-18 67% | Free throws | 15-22 68% |
| 35 18 off | Rebounds | 41 14 off |
| 12 | Assists | 24 |
| 6 | Steals | 7 |
| 0 | Blocks | 8 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 21 | Fouls | 17 |
| 28 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 5 | Fast-break points | 12 |
Players
| QUC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasir Mann G | 31 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 7-11 | 1-4 |
| Carson Schwieger F | 25 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 3-7 | 3-7 |
| Chris Ashby G | 25 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1-9 | 0-6 |
| Jordan Watford G | 25 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 4-8 | 0-0 |
| Avantae Parker F | 17 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Maban Jabriel G | 22 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 3-9 | 2-5 |
| Yoav Berman F | 19 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 4-7 | 2-3 |
| Isaiah Henry G | 16 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Gus Larson F | 12 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Kam Clark G | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Reid Celestin F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Colby Christiansen, Danzelle Bullock Coles, Jacob Brandly, Jimma James, Tyler Crider, Saif-Allah Zatari, Seamus Wilson, Matthew Walter
| UVA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Lewis G | 26 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 6-9 | 3-5 |
| Johann Grunloh C | 23 | 13 | 10 | 2 | 4-5 | 2-2 |
| Thijs De Ridder F | 21 | 21 | 2 | 2 | 8-10 | 2-3 |
| Dallin Hall G | 21 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0-4 | 0-3 |
| Malik Thomas G | 21 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 2-8 | 0-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Chance Mallory G | 24 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 4-8 | 3-6 |
| Jacari White G | 18 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 4-9 | 3-7 |
| Devin Tillis F | 18 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 3-4 | 2-2 |
| Ugonna Onyenso C | 17 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Elijah Gertrude G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Martin Carrere G | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Carter Lang F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Owen Odom G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Desmond Roberts G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Silas Barksdale
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUVA -25.5
ModelUVA -20.1
Model edgeQUC +5.4
W QUC covered
Total
Market160.5
Model160.6
Model edgeOver 0.1
W Over
Projected score
QUC 70.3 · UVA 90.3
QUC 69 · UVA 94
Win probability
UVA 96%
1st half
Spread
UVA -11.9
UVA -17.0
Total
75.2
75 points
Projected score
QUC 31.6 · UVA 43.6
QUC 29 · UVA 46
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUVA -22.5
3 → UVA
CloseUVA -25.5
3 pts toward UVA
Total
Open160.5
no move
Close160.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
QUC +3000 · UVA -20000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UVA -22.5 · closed UVA -25.5 · moved 3 toward UVAmodel UVA -20
model UVA -20
Opened 160.5 · unchangedmodel 160.5 matches the line
model 160.5 = line ✓
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| QUClast 6 | 2-4 33% | 2-4 33% | 4-2 67% |
| UVAlast 6 | 5-1 83% | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Queens University Royals
6 games played
Straight up
2-4
33% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-2
67% overs · avg +9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
WIN
WINL 74-81
−3.5
8
@
VILL
VILLL 74-94
−2.5
11
@
DUQ
DUQL 81-87
+6.5
15
vs
SHU
SHUW 81-64
+11.5
20
vs
UNCG
UNCGW 101-94
−0.5
23
@
FUR
FURL 79-90
−2.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsWIN
WINL 74-81
−8.5
8
@VILL
VILLL 74-94
+17.5
11
@DUQ
DUQL 81-87
+5.5
15
vsSHU
SHUW 81-64
−20.5
20
vsUNCG
UNCGW 101-94
+44.5
23
@FUR
FURL 79-90
+15.5
over 4under 2avg +9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Virginia
6 games played
Straight up
5-1
83% wins
Against the spread
4-2
67% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
RID
RIDW 87-53
+7.5
7
vs
NCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−15.5
11
vs
HAMP
HAMPW 91-53
+13.5
15
vs
MRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+5.5
21
vs
NU
NUW 83-78
+0.5
23
vs
BTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−13.5
covered 4didn’t cover 2avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
−8.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−8.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
−4.5
15
vsMRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+26.5
21
vsNU
NUW 83-78
+11.5
23
vsBTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−2.5
over 2under 4avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Queens University Royals
2-4 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Furman79–90
- Wvs UNC Greensboro101–94
- Wvs Sacred Heart81–64
- L@ Duquesne81–87
- L@ Villanova74–94
5 days since their last game.
Virginia
5-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Butler73–80
- Wvs Northwestern83–78
- Wvs Marshall104–78
- Wvs Hampton91–53
- Wvs NC Central81–62
5 days since their last game.