Northern Iowa Panthers at Bradley Braves: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 10, 6:00 PM ETCarver Arena · at Bradley · Conference game

Final

#167BRADBradley75▲ winner

Closing lineBRAD -4.5✓ BRAD covered by 1.5

Closing total131.5Over by 12.5

Season records: Northern Iowa and Bradley
UNI	This season	BRAD
11-4	Record	10-6
9-6	ATS	6-10
4-11	O/U	7-9

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UNI 66–67 BRAD · ✓ BRAD (56%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UNI	37	32	69
BRAD	40	35	75

1st half: UNI 37, BRAD 40 (BRAD by 3). The model had BRAD by 0.9 and a total of 62.2 (actual 77).

Team stats

UNI		BRAD
25-59 42%	Field goals	25-58 43%
8-25 32%	3-pointers	7-24 29%
11-18 61%	Free throws	18-28 64%
36 6 off	Rebounds	41 9 off
7	Assists	13
4	Steals	4
0	Blocks	3
5	Turnovers	5
20	Fouls	14
34	Points in paint	28
11	Fast-break points	5

Players

UNI	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Trey Campbell G	33	18	5	3	8-16	2-7
Leon Bond III G	32	11	7	0	4-11	1-4
Max Weisbrod G	28	9	2	1	3-5	3-5
Ben Schwieger F	27	12	10	0	3-12	0-3
Ismael Diouf F	27	9	0	1	3-7	0-3
Bench
Kyle Pock F	19	3	2	0	1-2	1-2
Geon Hutchins G	14	5	3	2	2-2	1-1
RJ Taylor G	11	2	2	0	1-3	0-0
Chase Courbat F	9	0	1	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Cade Courbat, Tristan Smith, Levi Valdo, Will Hornseth, Redek Born, Hunter Jacobson, Jalen Wilson, Marino Dubravcic

BRAD	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Alex Huibregtse G	35	10	5	4	3-8	2-6
Jaquan Johnson G	32	17	6	5	6-16	1-5
AJ Smith F	24	6	5	0	2-4	2-3
Ahmet Jonovic C	24	16	9	0	5-7	0-0
Demarion Burch G	22	3	0	0	1-6	0-3
Bench
Timoty van der Knaap G	27	8	13	0	3-9	0-3
Montana Wheeler G	20	6	1	4	2-4	0-2
Corey Thomas F	16	9	1	0	3-4	2-2

Did not play: Gustavo Guimares, Handy Toussaint III, Jackson Seastrunk, Matthew Zobrist, Dietrich Richardson, Gus Rugaard, Kai Yu

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BRAD -4.5	BRAD -1.8	UNI +2.8	L BRAD covered
Total	131.5	132.7	Over 1.2	W Over
Projected score	—	UNI 65.5 · BRAD 67.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BRAD -0.9	BRAD -3.0
1H total	62.2	77
1H projected score	UNI 30.6 · BRAD 31.6	UNI 37 · BRAD 40

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNI WWLWL	9-6	60%	4-0	2-0
BRAD LLLLW	6-10	38%	3-5	5-6

Venue/role: UNI away, as underdog; BRAD home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNI UUOUO	4-11	27%	11-4
BRAD UUOUO	7-9	44%	10-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNI	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
BRAD	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22

UNI 3–6 BRADBRAD leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · UNI 4-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 2, 2024-25	UNI 56 @ BRAD 73	BRAD -4.5	BRAD W
Feb 2, 2024-25	BRAD 69 @ UNI 83	UNI -1.5	UNI W
Feb 18, 2023-24	BRAD 63 @ UNI 74	UNI +3.5	UNI W
Jan 31, 2023-24	UNI 69 @ BRAD 85	BRAD -7.5	BRAD W
Mar 3, 2022-23	UNI 66 vs BRAD 72	BRAD -9.5	UNI W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Northern Iowa

15 games played

Straight up

11-4

73% wins

Against the spread

9-6

60% covers · avg +1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-11

27% overs · avg −11.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-473%

W W W W W W L L W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

9-660%

W L W L W W L L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-1127%

U U U U O U U O U U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	vsCSUN	W 86-57	-9.5	W +19.5	153.5	U 143
Nov 9	vsSDST	W 65-58	-10.5	L −3.5	150.5	U 123
Nov 14	vsFUR	W 70-54	-9.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 124
Nov 18	vsNIU	W 70-57	-19.5	L −6.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 22	@UCI	W 70-69	+2.5	W +3.5	138.5	O 139
Nov 25	vsLUC	W 72-51	-8.5	W +12.5	134.5	U 123
Nov 26	vsTLSA	L 60-63	-2.5	L −5.5	137.5	U 123
Dec 6	vsWICH	L 69-74	-1.5	L −6.5	135.5	O 143
Dec 13	vsOAK	W 75-63	-8.5	W +3.5	149.5	U 138
Dec 17	@UIC	W 60-54	-5.5	W +0.5	133.5	U 114
Dec 22	@SMC	L 58-63	+11.5	W +6.5	132.5	U 121
Dec 29	vsVAL	W 58-48	-8.5	W +1.5	131.5	U 106
Jan 1	vsINST	W 75-66	-10.5	L −1.5	135.5	O 141
Jan 4	@EVAN	W 62-48	-4.5	W +9.5	131.5	U 110
Jan 7	vsBEL	L 65-78	-2.5	L −15.5	137.5	O 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CSUN

W 86-57

+19.5

SDST

W 65-58

−3.5

FUR

W 70-54

+6.5

NIU

W 70-57

−6.5

UCI

W 70-69

+3.5

LUC

W 72-51

+12.5

TLSA

L 60-63

−5.5

WICH

L 69-74

−6.5

OAK

W 75-63

+3.5

UIC

W 60-54

+0.5

SMC

L 58-63

+6.5

VAL

W 58-48

+1.5

INST

W 75-66

−1.5

EVAN

W 62-48

+9.5

BEL

L 65-78

−15.5

covered 9didn’t cover 6avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CSUN

W 86-57

−10.5

SDST

W 65-58

−27.5

FUR

W 70-54

−17.5

NIU

W 70-57

−19.5

UCI

W 70-69

+0.5

LUC

W 72-51

−11.5

TLSA

L 60-63

−14.5

WICH

L 69-74

+7.5

OAK

W 75-63

−11.5

UIC

W 60-54

−19.5

SMC

L 58-63

−11.5

VAL

W 58-48

−25.5

INST

W 75-66

+5.5

EVAN

W 62-48

−21.5

BEL

L 65-78

+5.5

over 4under 11avg −11.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bradley

16 games played

Straight up

10-6

63% wins

Against the spread

6-10

38% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-9

44% overs · avg +2.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-663%

L W L L W W L W W W W W W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-1038%

L W L L L W L W L W W L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-944%

U U O U O O O U U U O U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSBU	L 63-69	+1.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsCMU	W 85-54	-9.5	W +21.5	147.5	U 139
Nov 12	vsUTM	L 67-78	-15.5	L −26.5	144.5	O 145
Nov 15	@SF	L 64-75	+9.5	L −1.5	146.5	U 139
Nov 19	vsUML	W 87-77	-21.5	L −11.5	149.5	O 164
Nov 24	vsPRIN	W 88-64	-9.5	W +14.5	141.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsUCSD	L 77-87	-1.5	L −11.5	145.5	O 164
Nov 26	vsLIB	W 74-64	+4.5	W +14.5	144.5	U 138
Dec 2	vsWSU	W 64-60	-5.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 124
Dec 6	vsNIU	W 84-55	-18.5	W +10.5	146.5	U 139
Dec 18	@INST	W 108-99	-5.5	W +3.5	150.5	O 207
Dec 21	vsSIU	W 73-69	-6.5	L −2.5	152.5	U 142
Dec 29	vsEVAN	W 76-68	-11.5	L −3.5	144.5	U 144
Jan 1	@BEL	L 78-88	+3.5	L −6.5	153.5	O 166
Jan 4	@MUR	L 66-86	+5.5	L −14.5	162.5	U 152
Jan 7	vsDRKE	W 93-66	-6.5	W +20.5	144.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SBU

L 63-69

−4.5

CMU

W 85-54

+21.5

UTM

L 67-78

−26.5

L 64-75

−1.5

UML

W 87-77

−11.5

PRIN

W 88-64

+14.5

UCSD

L 77-87

−11.5

LIB

W 74-64

+14.5

WSU

W 64-60

−1.5

NIU

W 84-55

+10.5

INST

W 108-99

+3.5

SIU

W 73-69

−2.5

EVAN

W 76-68

−3.5

BEL

L 78-88

−6.5

MUR

L 66-86

−14.5

DRKE

W 93-66

+20.5

covered 6didn’t cover 10avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SBU

L 63-69

−7.5

CMU

W 85-54

−8.5

UTM

L 67-78

+0.5

L 64-75

−7.5

UML

W 87-77

+14.5

PRIN

W 88-64

+10.5

UCSD

L 77-87

+18.5

LIB

W 74-64

−6.5

WSU

W 64-60

−24.5

NIU

W 84-55

−7.5

INST

W 108-99

+56.5

SIU

W 73-69

−10.5

EVAN

W 76-68

−0.5

BEL

L 78-88

+12.5

MUR

L 66-86

−10.5

DRKE

W 93-66

+14.5

over 7under 9avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Northern Iowa Panthers at Bradley Braves

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Northern Iowa

Bradley

Northern Iowa

Bradley