Liberty Flames vs Bradley Braves: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 26, 2:30 PM ETState Farm Field House · Neutral site

#160LIBLiberty64final

Final

#167BRADBradley74▲ winner

Closing lineLIB -4.5✓ BRAD covered by 14.5

Closing total144.5Under by 6.5

Season records: Liberty and Bradley
LIB	This season	BRAD
3-1	Record	3-4
2-2	ATS	2-5
4-0	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: LIB 75–73 BRAD · ✗ LIB (60%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
LIB	33	31	64
BRAD	43	31	74

1st half: LIB 33, BRAD 43 (BRAD by 10). The model had LIB by 1.9 and a total of 69.2 (actual 76).

Team stats

LIB		BRAD
22-48 46%	Field goals	27-53 51%
9-23 39%	3-pointers	8-18 44%
11-21 52%	Free throws	12-14 86%
20 5 off	Rebounds	36 11 off
14	Assists	16
9	Steals	7
3	Blocks	5
12	Turnovers	15
16	Fouls	19
26	Points in paint	36
11	Fast-break points	6

Players

LIB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kaden Metheny G	36	10	3	4	3-9	1-5
Brett Decker Jr. G	35	21	1	0	8-12	5-6
Zach Cleveland F	35	6	11	8	2-4	0-0
Colin Porter G	32	8	2	2	3-7	2-6
JJ Harper G	26	7	1	0	3-8	1-3
Bench
Zander Carter G	18	6	0	0	2-4	0-2
Josh Smith F	13	6	1	0	1-2	0-0
Zander Yates F	2	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Ryan Jones Jr. F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Drew Grimes F	1	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: JC Shirer Jr., Torr Sorensen, TJ Drain, Isaiah Ihnen, Brady Kester

BRAD	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jaquan Johnson G	33	12	3	5	2-8	2-4
Demarion Burch G	33	21	8	2	8-10	1-2
AJ Smith F	26	5	5	1	2-6	1-4
Alex Huibregtse G	23	12	4	0	4-5	4-5
Ahmet Jonovic C	20	6	5	3	2-6	0-0
Bench
Montana Wheeler G	22	4	2	4	2-6	0-2
Timoty van der Knaap G	19	4	2	0	2-2	0-0
Corey Thomas F	17	10	4	1	5-9	0-1
Dietrich Richardson G	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Kai Yu C	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Gus Rugaard, Matthew Zobrist, Jackson Seastrunk, Handy Toussaint III, Gustavo Guimares

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	LIB -4.5	LIB -2.8	BRAD +1.7	W BRAD covered
Total	144.5	147.8	Over 3.3	L Under
Projected score	—	LIB 75.3 · BRAD 72.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LIB -1.9	BRAD -10.0
1H total	69.2	76
1H projected score	LIB 35.6 · BRAD 33.7	LIB 33 · BRAD 43

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
LIB WWLL	2-2	50%	0-2	2-2
BRAD LLLWL	2-5	29%	1-2	0-2

Venue/role: LIB neutral site, as favorite; BRAD neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIB OOOO	4-0	100%	3-1
BRAD OUOOO	4-3	57%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIBlast 4	3-1 75%	2-2 50%	4-0 100%
BRADlast 7	3-4 43%	2-5 29%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

LIB 1–0 BRADLIB leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · LIB 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 23, 2022-23	BRAD 44 vs LIB 55	LIB -1.5	LIB W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Liberty

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-0

100% overs · avg +9.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-0100%

O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsCOFC	W 90-75	-9.5	W +5.5	145.5	O 165
Nov 9	vsFAU	W 88-68	-7.5	W +12.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 24	vsUVM	W 79-73	-8.5	L −2.5	141.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsTOW	L 69-72	-6.5	L −9.5	137.5	O 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

COFC

W 90-75

+5.5

FAU

W 88-68

+12.5

UVM

W 79-73

−2.5

TOW

L 69-72

−9.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

COFC

W 90-75

+19.5

FAU

W 88-68

+3.5

UVM

W 79-73

+10.5

TOW

L 69-72

+3.5

over 4under 0avg +9.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bradley

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

2-5

29% covers · avg −2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +2.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

L W L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-529%

L W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U U O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSBU	L 63-69	+1.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsCMU	W 85-54	-9.5	W +21.5	147.5	U 139
Nov 12	vsUTM	L 67-78	-15.5	L −26.5	144.5	O 145
Nov 15	@SF	L 64-75	+9.5	L −1.5	146.5	U 139
Nov 19	vsUML	W 87-77	-21.5	L −11.5	149.5	O 164
Nov 24	vsPRIN	W 88-64	-9.5	W +14.5	141.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsUCSD	L 77-87	-1.5	L −11.5	145.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SBU

L 63-69

−4.5

CMU

W 85-54

+21.5

UTM

L 67-78

−26.5

L 64-75

−1.5

UML

W 87-77

−11.5

PRIN

W 88-64

+14.5

UCSD

L 77-87

−11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 5avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SBU

L 63-69

−7.5

CMU

W 85-54

−8.5

UTM

L 67-78

+0.5

L 64-75

−7.5

UML

W 87-77

+14.5

PRIN

W 88-64

+10.5

UCSD

L 77-87

+18.5

over 4under 3avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Liberty Flames vs Bradley Braves

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Liberty

Bradley

Liberty

Bradley