South Florida Bulls vs VCU Rams: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 26, 2:53 PM ETImperial Arena · Neutral site

Final

#61VCUVCU78▲ winner

Closing lineVCU -1.5✓ VCU covered by 10.5

Closing total172.5Under by 28.5

Season records: South Florida and VCU
USF	This season	VCU
3-2	Record	3-2
3-2	ATS	3-2
4-1	O/U	2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: USF 84–84 VCU · ✓ VCU (53%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
USF	33	33	66
VCU	36	42	78

1st half: USF 33, VCU 36 (VCU by 3). The model had VCU by 0.3 and a total of 78.6 (actual 69).

Team stats

USF		VCU
26-67 39%	Field goals	24-62 39%
2-14 14%	3-pointers	7-23 30%
12-20 60%	Free throws	23-32 72%
39 13 off	Rebounds	47 16 off
12	Assists	10
7	Steals	5
5	Blocks	6
9	Turnovers	11
23	Fouls	19
48	Points in paint	34
6	Fast-break points	5

Players

USF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Josh Omojafo G	37	14	4	1	5-10	0-0
Izaiyah Nelson F	33	16	12	3	6-11	0-2
CJ Brown G	32	11	7	5	4-15	0-1
Joseph Pinion G	27	5	2	1	2-7	1-4
Isaiah Jones F	23	4	2	0	2-6	0-2
Bench
Wes Enis G	19	6	2	0	2-8	1-4
Daimion Collins F	16	6	4	0	3-6	0-1
Gavin Hightower G	10	4	2	2	2-4	0-0
Caleb Sanders F	3	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Tristan Beckford, Adriel Nyorha, Devin Haid, Onyx Nnani, Xavier Brown, De'Ante Green

VCU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Barry Evans F	33	10	10	0	5-10	0-2
Lazar Djokovic F	31	20	8	2	4-7	1-2
Jadrian Tracey G	21	5	1	3	2-6	0-1
Nyk Lewis G	19	11	5	1	3-8	2-3
Brandon Jennings G	16	4	2	0	1-5	0-1
Bench
Michael Belle F	22	7	4	0	3-7	1-2
Terrence Hill Jr. G	18	15	2	2	4-7	2-5
Ahmad Nowell G	16	3	4	1	1-2	1-2
Tyrell Ward G	15	3	5	1	1-8	0-4
Keyshawn Mitchell F	9	0	2	0	0-2	0-1

Did not play: Jordan Tillery, Jordann Dumont, Obinnaya Okafor, Christian Fermin

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	VCU -1.5	VCU -0.7	USF +0.8	L VCU covered
Total	172.5	167.8	Under 4.7	W Under
Projected score	—	USF 83.5 · VCU 84.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	VCU -0.3	VCU -3.0
1H total	78.6	69
1H projected score	USF 39.1 · VCU 39.4	USF 33 · VCU 36

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
USF WLWWL	3-2	60%	0-1	0-1
VCU WLLWW	3-2	60%	0-1	2-1

Venue/role: USF neutral site, as underdog; VCU neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
USF OOUOO	4-1	80%	3-2
VCU OUUUO	2-3	40%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USFlast 5	3-2 60%	3-2 60%	4-1 80%
VCUlast 5	3-2 60%	3-2 60%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

USF 0–1 VCUVCU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · USF 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 24, 2023-24	VCU 70 @ USF 65	USF -3.5	VCU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

South Florida

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +5.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-1

80% overs · avg +14.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-180%

O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsFAMU	W 102-67	-25.5	W +9.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 8	vsGW	L 95-99	-1.5	L −5.5	159.5	O 194
Nov 12	vsCOPP	W 100-50	-34.5	W +15.5	167.5	U 150
Nov 16	@KENN	W 108-89	-7.5	W +11.5	177.5	O 197
Nov 19	@OKST	L 95-103	+3.5	L −4.5	177.5	O 198

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FAMU

W 102-67

+9.5

L 95-99

−5.5

COPP

W 100-50

+15.5

KENN

W 108-89

+11.5

OKST

L 95-103

−4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FAMU

W 102-67

+15.5

L 95-99

+34.5

COPP

W 100-50

−17.5

KENN

W 108-89

+19.5

OKST

L 95-103

+20.5

over 4under 1avg +14.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

VCU

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +3.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg +7.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-340%

O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWAG	W 103-74	-25.5	W +3.5	133.5	O 177
Nov 7	vsUSU	L 77-80	+2.5	L −0.5	163.5	U 157
Nov 12	vsSPU	W 78-61	-20.5	L −3.5	147.5	U 139
Nov 17	@NCSU	L 79-85	+11.5	W +5.5	164.5	U 164
Nov 22	vsCOPP	W 101-58	-32.5	W +10.5	151.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WAG

W 103-74

+3.5

USU

L 77-80

−0.5

SPU

W 78-61

−3.5

NCSU

L 79-85

+5.5

COPP

W 101-58

+10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WAG

W 103-74

+43.5

USU

L 77-80

−6.5

SPU

W 78-61

−8.5

NCSU

L 79-85

−0.5

COPP

W 101-58

+7.5

over 2under 3avg +7.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

South Florida vs VCU

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

South Florida

VCU

South Florida

VCU