Coppin State Eagles at South Florida Bulls: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 12, 7:00 PM ETYuengling Center · at South Florida

#352COPPCoppin St50final

Final

Closing lineUSF -34.5✓ USF covered by 15.5

Closing total167.5Under by 17.5

Season records: Coppin St and South Florida
COPP	This season	USF
0-3	Record	1-1
2-1	ATS	1-1
3-0	O/U	2-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: COPP 66–93 USF · ✓ USF (99%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
COPP	23	27	50
USF	49	51	100

1st half: COPP 23, USF 49 (USF by 26). The model had USF by 16.1 and a total of 74.0 (actual 72).

Team stats

COPP		USF
16-52 31%	Field goals	35-67 52%
2-11 18%	3-pointers	12-38 32%
16-22 73%	Free throws	18-27 67%
28 12 off	Rebounds	47 20 off
11	Assists	21
5	Steals	11
1	Blocks	6
18	Turnovers	9
19	Fouls	23
26	Points in paint	42
6	Fast-break points	26

Players

COPP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tyler Koenig F	28	17	8	1	6-9	0-0
Hussain Williams G	28	7	0	2	3-10	1-5
Demariontay Hall F	26	10	5	2	3-9	0-0
Baasil Saunders G	22	0	2	1	0-4	0-1
Hassan Perkins G	8	0	0	0	0-3	0-1
Bench
Camaren Sparrow G	21	4	2	1	1-5	0-0
Daveyon Lydner G	21	2	1	2	1-4	0-0
Torrin Andrews G	20	4	1	2	1-2	1-2
Jamari Piercy G	14	6	4	0	1-3	0-1
Josiah Brown G	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Favour Aire C	4	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Khali Horton F	3	0	0	0	0-2	0-1

Did not play: Macahi Nelson, Chris Morgan, Nelson Lamizana, Elijah Taylor, Taj Thweatt

USF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Joseph Pinion G	28	24	5	2	8-16	6-14
Izaiyah Nelson F	24	14	13	0	5-6	0-0
Josh Omojafo G	22	9	6	6	4-5	0-1
Wes Enis G	20	11	2	1	4-12	3-10
CJ Brown G	18	11	3	4	3-5	0-1
Bench
Daimion Collins F	23	5	5	1	2-4	0-2
Isaiah Jones F	20	5	2	1	2-4	1-3
Caleb Sanders F	16	12	2	1	4-7	2-3
Devin Haid G	9	0	1	1	0-1	0-1
Adriel Nyorha G	8	2	1	1	0-2	0-1
Gavin Hightower G	7	7	2	2	3-3	0-0
Xavier Brown G	4	0	1	1	0-2	0-2
Onyx Nnani F	1	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Tristan Beckford, De'Ante Green

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	USF -34.5	USF -26.8	COPP +7.7	L USF covered
Total	167.5	158.1	Under 9.4	W Under
Projected score	—	COPP 65.6 · USF 92.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	USF -16.1	USF -26.0
1H total	74.0	72
1H projected score	COPP 29 · USF 45.1	COPP 23 · USF 49

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
COPP WLW	2-1	67%	1-1	2-1
USF WL	1-1	50%	1-0	1-1

Venue/role: COPP away, as underdog; USF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
COPP OOO	3-0	100%	0-3
USF OO	2-0	100%	1-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
COPPlast 3	0-3 0%	2-1 67%	3-0 100%
USFlast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	2-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Coppin St

3 games played

Straight up

0-3

0% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-0

100% overs · avg +7.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-30%

L L L

3 straight losses0 of 3 won

Against the spread

2-167%

W L W

2 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-0100%

O O O

3 straight overs3 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMD	L 61-83	+28.5	W +6.5	139.5	O 144
Nov 5	@LAS	L 59-87	+17.5	L −10.5	139.5	O 146
Nov 9	@JMU	L 70-84	+18.5	W +4.5	141.5	O 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 61-83

+6.5

LAS

L 59-87

−10.5

JMU

L 70-84

+4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 61-83

+4.5

LAS

L 59-87

+6.5

JMU

L 70-84

+12.5

over 3under 0avg +7.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

South Florida

2 games played

Straight up

1-1

50% wins

Against the spread

1-1

50% covers · avg +2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-0

100% overs · avg +25 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-150%

W L

1 of 2 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-150%

W L

1 of 2 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-0100%

O O

2 straight overs2 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsFAMU	W 102-67	-25.5	W +9.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 8	vsGW	L 95-99	-1.5	L −5.5	159.5	O 194

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FAMU

W 102-67

+9.5

L 95-99

−5.5

covered 1didn’t cover 1avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FAMU

W 102-67

+15.5

L 95-99

+34.5

over 2under 0avg +25 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Coppin State Eagles at South Florida Bulls

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Coppin St

South Florida

Coppin St

South Florida