USC Trojans vs Arizona State Sun Devils: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 26, 2:30 PM ETLahaina Civic Center · Neutral site

#36USCUSC88▲ winner

Final

Closing lineUSC -4.5✓ USC covered by 8.5

Closing total161.5Over by 1.5

Season records: USC and Arizona St
USC	This season	ASU
6-0	Record	6-1
3-3	ATS	5-2
3-3	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: USC 86–82 ASU · ✓ USC (66%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
USC	43	45	88
ASU	43	32	75

1st half: USC 43, ASU 43 (tied). The model had USC by 3.0 and a total of 78.6 (actual 86).

Team stats

USC		ASU
34-57 60%	Field goals	22-52 42%
9-23 39%	3-pointers	8-25 32%
11-18 61%	Free throws	23-27 85%
32 12 off	Rebounds	21 9 off
16	Assists	10
4	Steals	5
4	Blocks	2
12	Turnovers	11
22	Fouls	16
42	Points in paint	26
3	Fast-break points	15

Players

USC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Chad Baker-Mazara G	34	23	3	4	9-16	4-10
Jacob Cofie F	30	11	8	4	4-6	0-1
Ezra Ausar F	27	14	6	2	6-6	0-0
Terrance Williams II F	24	7	3	1	3-5	0-2
Jerry Easter II G	22	2	1	1	1-5	0-0
Bench
Amarion Dickerson F	24	4	5	0	1-2	1-1
Jordan Marsh G	21	9	4	4	3-5	1-2
Jaden Brownell F	15	16	1	0	6-11	3-7
Gabe Dynes C	3	2	0	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Patrick O'Brien, Brit Burden, Jonah Goorin, EJ Neal Jr., Alijah Arenas, Ryan Cornish, Rodney Rice

ASU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Maurice Odum G	35	17	2	4	4-12	4-9
Massamba Diop C	31	13	2	1	5-6	0-0
Santiago Trouet F	28	13	5	1	5-10	0-3
Bryce Ford G	28	6	2	1	2-8	2-5
Andrija Grbovic F	14	3	2	1	1-3	1-2
Bench
Anthony Johnson G	25	15	0	0	3-7	0-2
Noah Meeusen G	23	5	1	1	2-5	1-4
Allen Mukeba F	12	1	1	1	0-1	0-0
Marcus Adams Jr. F	4	2	3	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Dame Salane, Trevor Best, Vijay Wallace, Jovan Icitovic, Adante' Holiman, Quentin McCoy, Kash Polk

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	USC -4.5	USC -4.8	USC +0.3	W USC covered
Total	161.5	168.0	Over 6.5	W Over
Projected score	—	USC 86.4 · ASU 81.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	USC -3.0	PK
1H total	78.6	86
1H projected score	USC 40.8 · ASU 37.8	USC 43 · ASU 43

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
USC WWLLL	3-3	50%	1-2	3-3
ASU WLWWW	5-2	71%	2-0	3-0

Venue/role: USC neutral site, as favorite; ASU neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
USC OUOUO	3-3	50%	6-0
ASU UUOOO	3-4	43%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USClast 6	6-0 100%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
ASUlast 7	6-1 86%	5-2 71%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22

USC 5–2 ASUUSC leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · USC 2-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 7, 2023-24	ASU 73 @ USC 81	USC -9.5	ASU W
Jan 20, 2023-24	USC 67 @ ASU 82	ASU -4	ASU W
Mar 9, 2022-23	ASU 77 vs USC 72	USC -3.5	ASU W
Mar 4, 2022-23	ASU 65 @ USC 68	USC -5.5	ASU W
Jan 21, 2022-23	USC 77 @ ASU 69	ASU -2.5	USC W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

USC

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −1.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +14.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCP	W 94-64	-24.5	W +5.5	163.5	U 158
Nov 9	vsMAN	W 114-83	-28.5	W +2.5	155.5	O 197
Nov 14	vsILST	W 87-67	-15.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 154
Nov 20	vsTROY	W 107-106	-18.5	L −17.5	159.5	O 213
Nov 24	vsBOIS	W 70-67	-3.5	L −0.5	155.5	U 137
Nov 25	vsHALL	W 83-81	-6.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 94-64

+5.5

MAN

W 114-83

+2.5

ILST

W 87-67

+4.5

TROY

W 107-106

−17.5

BOIS

W 70-67

−0.5

HALL

W 83-81

−4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 94-64

−5.5

MAN

W 114-83

+41.5

ILST

W 87-67

−1.5

TROY

W 107-106

+53.5

BOIS

W 70-67

−18.5

HALL

W 83-81

+18.5

over 3under 3avg +14.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Arizona St

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg +2.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg +4.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-271%

L W W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

U U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsSUU	W 81-64	-17.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 145
Nov 9	vsUTU	W 81-66	-12.5	W +2.5	152.5	U 147
Nov 14	vsGONZ	L 65-77	+13.5	W +1.5	158.5	U 142
Nov 17	vsGAST	W 75-62	-18.5	L −5.5	145.5	U 137
Nov 20	@HAW	W 83-76	+1.5	W +8.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 24	vsTEX	W 87-86	+6.5	W +7.5	153.5	O 173
Nov 25	vsWSU	W 100-94	-4.5	W +1.5	157.5	O 194

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SUU

W 81-64

−0.5

UTU

W 81-66

+2.5

GONZ

L 65-77

+1.5

GAST

W 75-62

−5.5

HAW

W 83-76

+8.5

TEX

W 87-86

+7.5

WSU

W 100-94

+1.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SUU

W 81-64

−6.5

UTU

W 81-66

−5.5

GONZ

L 65-77

−16.5

GAST

W 75-62

−8.5

HAW

W 83-76

+15.5

TEX

W 87-86

+19.5

WSU

W 100-94

+36.5

over 3under 4avg +4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

USC Trojans vs Arizona State Sun Devils

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

USC

Arizona St

USC

Arizona St