Bradley Braves at Belmont Bruins: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Jan 1, 7:00 PM ETCurb Event Center Arena · at Belmont · Conference game

#167BRADBradley78final

Final

#138BELBelmont88▲ winner

Closing lineBEL -3.5✓ BEL covered by 6.5

Closing total153.5Over by 12.5

Season records: Bradley and Belmont
BRAD	This season	BEL
9-4	Record	11-2
5-8	ATS	7-6
5-8	O/U	6-7

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: BRAD 75–79 BEL · ✓ BEL (65%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
BRAD	39	39	78
BEL	42	46	88

1st half: BRAD 39, BEL 42 (BEL by 3). The model had BEL by 2.5 and a total of 71.8 (actual 81).

Team stats

BRAD		BEL
27-61 44%	Field goals	28-51 55%
13-32 41%	3-pointers	10-23 43%
11-17 65%	Free throws	22-30 73%
31 15 off	Rebounds	34 12 off
13	Assists	20
7	Steals	7
3	Blocks	3
16	Turnovers	16
25	Fouls	17
22	Points in paint	36
2	Fast-break points	10

Players

BRAD	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jaquan Johnson G	35	8	1	3	3-13	2-7
Demarion Burch G	31	25	3	4	8-14	4-8
Timoty van der Knaap G	28	6	4	1	3-7	0-3
Ahmet Jonovic C	25	4	8	1	0-1	0-0
Alex Huibregtse G	23	3	3	1	1-6	0-4
Bench
Montana Wheeler G	26	22	1	2	7-11	7-9
AJ Smith F	14	4	3	1	2-5	0-1
Kai Yu C	10	6	5	0	3-3	0-0
Corey Thomas F	8	0	1	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Gus Rugaard, Dietrich Richardson, Matthew Zobrist, Jackson Seastrunk, Handy Toussaint III, Gustavo Guimares

BEL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tyler Lundblade G	39	25	2	1	7-11	7-11
Jabez Jenkins G	33	18	7	2	6-10	0-1
Drew Scharnowski F	26	16	9	3	7-9	1-1
Nic McClain G	20	2	1	4	0-1	0-1
Brigham Rogers F	16	8	2	1	3-3	0-0
Bench
Isaiah West G	21	3	6	0	1-4	1-3
Jack Smiley G	17	5	1	7	0-3	0-1
Win Miller G	15	9	2	1	3-6	1-2
Eoin Dillon F	12	2	2	1	1-4	0-3
Keith Robbins G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Graydon Lemke, Sam Orme, Cooper Haynes, Aidan Noyes, Jake Dykstra

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BEL -3.5	BEL -4.4	BEL +0.9	W BEL covered
Total	153.5	153.3	Under 0.2	L Over
Projected score	—	BRAD 74.5 · BEL 78.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BEL -2.5	BEL -3.0
1H total	71.8	81
1H projected score	BRAD 34.7 · BEL 37.1	BRAD 39 · BEL 42

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BRAD LWWLL	5-8	38%	1-1	1-2
BEL WLLWL	7-6	54%	1-4	6-6

Venue/role: BRAD away, as underdog; BEL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BRAD UUOUU	5-8	38%	9-4
BEL UOOUO	6-7	46%	11-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BRAD	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
BEL	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

BRAD 2–3 BELBEL leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · BRAD 2-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 5, 2024-25	BEL 80 @ BRAD 77	BRAD -7.5	BEL W
Jan 21, 2024-25	BRAD 89 @ BEL 77	BEL +2.5	BRAD W
Jan 20, 2023-24	BEL 72 @ BRAD 95	BRAD -10.5	BRAD W
Jan 21, 2022-23	BEL 78 @ BRAD 76	BRAD -7.5	BEL W
Dec 28, 2022-23	BRAD 60 @ BEL 63	BEL +1.5	BEL W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bradley

13 games played

Straight up

9-4

69% wins

Against the spread

5-8

38% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-8

38% overs · avg +2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-469%

L W L L W W L W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-838%

L W L L L W L W L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-838%

U U O U O O O U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSBU	L 63-69	+1.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsCMU	W 85-54	-9.5	W +21.5	147.5	U 139
Nov 12	vsUTM	L 67-78	-15.5	L −26.5	144.5	O 145
Nov 15	@SF	L 64-75	+9.5	L −1.5	146.5	U 139
Nov 19	vsUML	W 87-77	-21.5	L −11.5	149.5	O 164
Nov 24	vsPRIN	W 88-64	-9.5	W +14.5	141.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsUCSD	L 77-87	-1.5	L −11.5	145.5	O 164
Nov 26	vsLIB	W 74-64	+4.5	W +14.5	144.5	U 138
Dec 2	vsWSU	W 64-60	-5.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 124
Dec 6	vsNIU	W 84-55	-18.5	W +10.5	146.5	U 139
Dec 18	@INST	W 108-99	-5.5	W +3.5	150.5	O 207
Dec 21	vsSIU	W 73-69	-6.5	L −2.5	152.5	U 142
Dec 29	vsEVAN	W 76-68	-11.5	L −3.5	144.5	U 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SBU

L 63-69

−4.5

CMU

W 85-54

+21.5

UTM

L 67-78

−26.5

L 64-75

−1.5

UML

W 87-77

−11.5

PRIN

W 88-64

+14.5

UCSD

L 77-87

−11.5

LIB

W 74-64

+14.5

WSU

W 64-60

−1.5

NIU

W 84-55

+10.5

INST

W 108-99

+3.5

SIU

W 73-69

−2.5

EVAN

W 76-68

−3.5

covered 5didn’t cover 8avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SBU

L 63-69

−7.5

CMU

W 85-54

−8.5

UTM

L 67-78

+0.5

L 64-75

−7.5

UML

W 87-77

+14.5

PRIN

W 88-64

+10.5

UCSD

L 77-87

+18.5

LIB

W 74-64

−6.5

WSU

W 64-60

−24.5

NIU

W 84-55

−7.5

INST

W 108-99

+56.5

SIU

W 73-69

−10.5

EVAN

W 76-68

−0.5

over 5under 8avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Belmont

13 games played

Straight up

11-2

85% wins

Against the spread

7-6

54% covers · avg +4.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-7

46% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-285%

W W W W W W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

7-654%

W L W L W W W L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

6-746%

U O U U U U O O U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsAF	W 79-63	-15.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 142
Nov 8	vsTNST	W 87-79	-13.5	L −5.5	158.5	O 166
Nov 15	@ORU	W 83-60	-7.5	W +15.5	171.5	U 143
Nov 19	vsLIP	W 75-68	-12.5	L −5.5	158.5	U 143
Nov 24	vsSFPA	W 94-57	-21.5	W +15.5	157.5	U 151
Nov 26	vsTOL	W 87-72	-4.5	W +10.5	163.5	U 159
Nov 30	@COFC	W 96-73	-2.5	W +20.5	152.5	O 169
Dec 3	vsRICH	L 76-84	-6.5	L −14.5	156.5	O 160
Dec 7	@MTSU	W 83-62	-3.5	W +17.5	153.5	U 145
Dec 13	vsUIC	W 87-84	-12.5	L −9.5	154.5	O 171
Dec 16	@EVAN	W 83-78	-8.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 161
Dec 19	@UCI	W 84-58	+1.5	W +27.5	150.5	U 142
Dec 29	@INST	L 80-81	-7.5	L −8.5	159.5	O 161

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 79-63

+0.5

TNST

W 87-79

−5.5

ORU

W 83-60

+15.5

LIP

W 75-68

−5.5

SFPA

W 94-57

+15.5

TOL

W 87-72

+10.5

COFC

W 96-73

+20.5

RICH

L 76-84

−14.5

MTSU

W 83-62

+17.5

UIC

W 87-84

−9.5

EVAN

W 83-78

−3.5

UCI

W 84-58

+27.5

INST

L 80-81

−8.5

covered 7didn’t cover 6avg +4.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 79-63

−2.5

TNST

W 87-79

+7.5

ORU

W 83-60

−28.5

LIP

W 75-68

−15.5

SFPA

W 94-57

−6.5

TOL

W 87-72

−4.5

COFC

W 96-73

+16.5

RICH

L 76-84

+3.5

MTSU

W 83-62

−8.5

UIC

W 87-84

+16.5

EVAN

W 83-78

+13.5

UCI

W 84-58

−8.5

INST

L 80-81

+1.5

over 6under 7avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Bradley Braves at Belmont Bruins

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Bradley

Belmont

Bradley

Belmont