Belmont Bruins at Evansville Purple Aces: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 16, 7:00 PM ETFord Center · at Evansville · Conference game

#138BELBelmont83▲ winner

Final

#255EVANEvansville78final

Closing lineBEL -8.5✓ EVAN covered by 3.5

Closing total147.5Over by 13.5

Season records: Belmont and Evansville
BEL	This season	EVAN
9-1	Record	2-7
6-4	ATS	4-5
4-6	O/U	5-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: BEL 78–71 EVAN · ✓ BEL (74%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
BEL	41	42	83
EVAN	30	48	78

1st half: BEL 41, EVAN 30 (BEL by 11). The model had BEL by 4.6 and a total of 69.5 (actual 71).

Team stats

BEL		EVAN
28-58 48%	Field goals	23-61 38%
9-21 43%	3-pointers	12-32 38%
18-25 72%	Free throws	20-24 83%
38 7 off	Rebounds	37 10 off
19	Assists	12
7	Steals	7
2	Blocks	4
14	Turnovers	13
22	Fouls	19
38	Points in paint	20
16	Fast-break points	9

Players

BEL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tyler Lundblade G	32	21	1	1	5-8	3-5
Sam Orme F	27	11	6	1	4-9	2-5
Jabez Jenkins G	22	8	1	1	2-3	1-2
Brigham Rogers F	21	8	4	2	4-5	0-0
Nic McClain G	14	2	4	4	1-7	0-0
Bench
Drew Scharnowski F	22	14	10	1	7-9	0-0
Jack Smiley G	20	8	5	4	2-6	0-1
Isaiah West G	19	3	2	3	1-3	1-1
Win Miller G	13	2	0	2	0-2	0-1
Eoin Dillon F	10	6	0	0	2-6	2-6

Did not play: Graydon Lemke, Keith Robbins, Jake Dykstra, Cooper Haynes, Aidan Noyes

EVAN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
AJ Casey F	32	12	3	2	5-13	2-3
Joshua Hughes F	26	8	5	0	2-3	1-2
Leif Moeller G	19	17	0	2	4-7	3-5
Alex Hemenway G	13	2	0	1	0-2	0-2
Keishon Porter G	12	2	3	0	1-5	0-2
Bench
Trent Hundley F	31	20	1	2	6-11	6-10
Bryce Quinet G	27	10	5	2	3-10	0-5
James Dyson-Merwe F	22	5	9	2	2-6	0-0
Kaia Berridge G	18	2	3	1	0-4	0-3

Did not play: Aaron Gutman, Weston Aigner, Dakota Candler, Leo Amari IV, Connor Turnbull, Marlon Barnes Jr.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BEL -8.5	BEL -7.3	EVAN +1.2	W EVAN covered
Total	147.5	148.4	Over 0.9	W Over
Projected score	—	BEL 77.9 · EVAN 70.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BEL -4.6	BEL -11.0
1H total	69.5	71
1H projected score	BEL 37 · EVAN 32.5	BEL 41 · EVAN 30

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BEL WWLWL	6-4	60%	3-0	6-4
EVAN LLWWL	4-5	44%	1-2	3-3

Venue/role: BEL away, as favorite; EVAN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BEL UOOUO	4-6	40%	9-1
EVAN UUUOO	5-4	56%	2-7

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BEL	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
EVANlast 9	2-7 22%	4-5 44%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22

BEL 5–1 EVANBEL leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · BEL 3-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 2, 2024-25	EVAN 80 @ BEL 75	BEL -10.5	EVAN W
Jan 18, 2024-25	BEL 85 @ EVAN 82	EVAN +5.5	EVAN W
Mar 3, 2023-24	EVAN 66 @ BEL 83	BEL -10.5	BEL W
Feb 15, 2022-23	EVAN 63 @ BEL 95	BEL -17.5	BEL W
Jan 25, 2022-23	BEL 73 @ EVAN 64	EVAN +13.5	EVAN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Belmont

10 games played

Straight up

9-1

90% wins

Against the spread

6-4

60% covers · avg +4.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-6

40% overs · avg −2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-190%

W W W W W W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-460%

W L W L W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-640%

U O U U U U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsAF	W 79-63	-15.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 142
Nov 8	vsTNST	W 87-79	-13.5	L −5.5	158.5	O 166
Nov 15	@ORU	W 83-60	-7.5	W +15.5	171.5	U 143
Nov 19	vsLIP	W 75-68	-12.5	L −5.5	158.5	U 143
Nov 24	vsSFPA	W 94-57	-21.5	W +15.5	157.5	U 151
Nov 26	vsTOL	W 87-72	-4.5	W +10.5	163.5	U 159
Nov 30	@COFC	W 96-73	-2.5	W +20.5	152.5	O 169
Dec 3	vsRICH	L 76-84	-6.5	L −14.5	156.5	O 160
Dec 7	@MTSU	W 83-62	-3.5	W +17.5	153.5	U 145
Dec 13	vsUIC	W 87-84	-12.5	L −9.5	154.5	O 171

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 79-63

+0.5

TNST

W 87-79

−5.5

ORU

W 83-60

+15.5

LIP

W 75-68

−5.5

SFPA

W 94-57

+15.5

TOL

W 87-72

+10.5

COFC

W 96-73

+20.5

RICH

L 76-84

−14.5

MTSU

W 83-62

+17.5

UIC

W 87-84

−9.5

covered 6didn’t cover 4avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 79-63

−2.5

TNST

W 87-79

+7.5

ORU

W 83-60

−28.5

LIP

W 75-68

−15.5

SFPA

W 94-57

−6.5

TOL

W 87-72

−4.5

COFC

W 96-73

+16.5

RICH

L 76-84

+3.5

MTSU

W 83-62

−8.5

UIC

W 87-84

+16.5

over 4under 6avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Evansville

9 games played

Straight up

2-7

22% wins

Against the spread

4-5

44% covers · avg −4.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-4

56% overs · avg +0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-722%

L L L W L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-544%

W L L W L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-456%

U O O O U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@PUR	L 51-82	+33.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 133
Nov 12	vsMTSU	L 72-77	-2.5	L −7.5	140.5	O 149
Nov 18	vsUTA	L 76-84	-2.5	L −10.5	138.5	O 160
Nov 21	vsORST	W 73-69	+6.5	W +10.5	136.5	O 142
Nov 23	vsAKR	L 59-97	+11.5	L −26.5	156.5	U 156
Nov 24	vsCOFC	L 59-78	+4.5	L −14.5	141.5	U 137
Dec 3	vsBALL	W 64-52	-6.5	W +5.5	136.5	U 116
Dec 6	@WKU	L 79-80	+11.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 159
Dec 13	@ND	L 58-82	+14.5	L −9.5	136.5	O 140

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PUR

L 51-82

+2.5

MTSU

L 72-77

−7.5

UTA

L 76-84

−10.5

ORST

W 73-69

+10.5

AKR

L 59-97

−26.5

COFC

L 59-78

−14.5

BALL

W 64-52

+5.5

WKU

L 79-80

+10.5

L 58-82

−9.5

covered 4didn’t cover 5avg −4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PUR

L 51-82

−17.5

MTSU

L 72-77

+8.5

UTA

L 76-84

+21.5

ORST

W 73-69

+5.5

AKR

L 59-97

−0.5

COFC

L 59-78

−4.5

BALL

W 64-52

−20.5

WKU

L 79-80

+11.5

L 58-82

+3.5

over 5under 4avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Belmont Bruins at Evansville Purple Aces

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Belmont

Evansville

Belmont

Evansville