Ball State Cardinals at Evansville Purple Aces: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 3, 8:00 PM ETFord Center · at Evansville

#181BALLBall State52final

Final

#255EVANEvansville64▲ winner

Closing lineEVAN -6.5✓ EVAN covered by 5.5

Closing total136.5Under by 20.5

Season records: Ball State and Evansville
BALL	This season	EVAN
2-5	Record	1-5
2-5	ATS	2-4
2-5	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: BALL 67–72 EVAN · ✓ EVAN (67%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
BALL	32	20	52
EVAN	33	31	64

1st half: BALL 32, EVAN 33 (EVAN by 1). The model had EVAN by 2.8 and a total of 64.9 (actual 65).

Team stats

BALL		EVAN
18-56 32%	Field goals	22-52 42%
6-24 25%	3-pointers	6-25 24%
10-14 71%	Free throws	14-18 78%
34 9 off	Rebounds	41 9 off
12	Assists	15
10	Steals	5
2	Blocks	8
14	Turnovers	15
19	Fouls	14
20	Points in paint	30
0	Fast-break points	11

Players

BALL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Mason Jones F	38	2	10	2	1-3	0-1
Armoni Zeigler G	35	17	3	2	5-11	3-6
Juwan Maxey G	25	5	4	1	1-11	0-7
Preston Copeland F	24	4	5	1	2-3	0-0
Elmore James IV G	16	0	2	1	0-5	0-2
Bench
Devon Barnes G	22	11	0	1	5-10	1-3
Kayden Fish F	18	10	2	0	3-7	1-2
Davion Hill G	14	0	0	3	0-4	0-1
Joey Hart G	8	3	0	1	1-2	1-2

Did not play: Alex Farley, Easton Foster, Kody Clancy, Jai Anthoni Bearden, Cam Denson, Zane Doughty

EVAN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Connor Turnbull F	29	21	10	3	9-13	0-2
Joshua Hughes F	24	4	8	0	1-3	0-1
Leif Moeller G	20	3	2	2	1-5	1-4
Alex Hemenway G	15	6	0	0	2-5	2-4
Keishon Porter G	15	3	2	1	1-3	0-1
Bench
AJ Casey F	27	9	11	1	3-7	0-1
Bryce Quinet G	25	8	1	5	2-6	0-2
Trent Hundley F	25	9	0	1	3-9	3-9
Kaia Berridge G	20	1	4	2	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Aaron Gutman, Leo Amari IV, Marlon Barnes Jr., James Dyson-Merwe, Weston Aigner, Dakota Candler

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	EVAN -6.5	EVAN -4.9	BALL +1.6	L EVAN covered
Total	136.5	138.4	Over 1.9	L Under
Projected score	—	BALL 66.8 · EVAN 71.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	EVAN -2.8	EVAN -1.0
1H total	64.9	65
1H projected score	BALL 31 · EVAN 33.8	BALL 32 · EVAN 33

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BALL LLLLW	2-5	29%	0-3	1-3
EVAN LLWLL	2-4	33%	0-2	0-2

Venue/role: BALL away, as underdog; EVAN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BALL UUOUO	2-5	29%	2-5
EVAN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BALLlast 7	2-5 29%	2-5 29%	2-5 29%
EVANlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

BALL 2–1 EVANBALL leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · BALL 2-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 21, 2024-25	EVAN 43 @ BALL 80	BALL -4.5	BALL W
Nov 18, 2023-24	BALL 50 @ EVAN 74	EVAN +1.5	EVAN W
Dec 10, 2022-23	EVAN 69 @ BALL 88	BALL -9.5	BALL W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Ball State

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

2-5

29% covers · avg −4.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −8.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

W L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-529%

W L L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-529%

U U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUL	W 75-64	-4.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 139
Nov 11	@WIS	L 55-86	+26.5	L −4.5	156.5	U 141
Nov 15	vsLR	L 62-68	-2.5	L −8.5	146.5	U 130
Nov 22	@INST	L 52-70	+7.5	L −10.5	154.5	U 122
Nov 28	vsMONM	L 73-80	+2.5	L −4.5	136.5	O 153
Nov 29	@LAF	L 37-55	-1.5	L −19.5	140.5	U 92
Nov 30	vsLEM	W 96-85	+1.5	W +12.5	140.5	O 181

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 75-64

+6.5

WIS

L 55-86

−4.5

L 62-68

−8.5

INST

L 52-70

−10.5

MONM

L 73-80

−4.5

LAF

L 37-55

−19.5

LEM

W 96-85

+12.5

covered 2didn’t cover 5avg −4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 75-64

−2.5

WIS

L 55-86

−15.5

L 62-68

−16.5

INST

L 52-70

−32.5

MONM

L 73-80

+16.5

LAF

L 37-55

−48.5

LEM

W 96-85

+40.5

over 2under 5avg −8.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Evansville

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −7.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@PUR	L 51-82	+33.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 133
Nov 12	vsMTSU	L 72-77	-2.5	L −7.5	140.5	O 149
Nov 18	vsUTA	L 76-84	-2.5	L −10.5	138.5	O 160
Nov 21	vsORST	W 73-69	+6.5	W +10.5	136.5	O 142
Nov 23	vsAKR	L 59-97	+11.5	L −26.5	156.5	U 156
Nov 24	vsCOFC	L 59-78	+4.5	L −14.5	141.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PUR

L 51-82

+2.5

MTSU

L 72-77

−7.5

UTA

L 76-84

−10.5

ORST

W 73-69

+10.5

AKR

L 59-97

−26.5

COFC

L 59-78

−14.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PUR

L 51-82

−17.5

MTSU

L 72-77

+8.5

UTA

L 76-84

+21.5

ORST

W 73-69

+5.5

AKR

L 59-97

−0.5

COFC

L 59-78

−4.5

over 3under 3avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Ball State Cardinals at Evansville Purple Aces

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Ball State

Evansville

Ball State

Evansville