Charleston Cougars vs Evansville Purple Aces: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 24, 5:30 PM ETUVI Sports & Fitness Center · Neutral site

#117COFCCharleston78▲ winner

Final

#255EVANEvansville59final

Closing lineCOFC -4.5✓ COFC covered by 14.5

Closing total141.5Under by 4.5

Season records: Charleston and Evansville
COFC	This season	EVAN
2-4	Record	1-4
2-4	ATS	2-3
2-4	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: COFC 77–71 EVAN · ✓ COFC (69%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
COFC	40	38	78
EVAN	29	30	59

1st half: COFC 40, EVAN 29 (COFC by 11). The model had COFC by 3.7 and a total of 69.0 (actual 69).

Team stats

COFC		EVAN
26-55 47%	Field goals	21-55 38%
10-24 42%	3-pointers	4-19 21%
16-21 76%	Free throws	13-18 72%
42 8 off	Rebounds	24 2 off
11	Assists	10
7	Steals	3
4	Blocks	4
12	Turnovers	10
14	Fouls	15
28	Points in paint	26
8	Fast-break points	6

Players

COFC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Martin Kalu G	36	21	7	0	5-13	5-10
Jaxon Prunty G	31	6	1	1	2-5	1-1
Connor Hickman G	30	16	8	3	6-13	2-4
Chadlyn Traylor G	26	6	1	5	2-7	1-4
Chol Machot C	21	14	7	0	4-5	1-1
Bench
Bryce Baker G	23	2	3	1	1-3	0-2
Christian Reeves C	16	9	5	1	4-4	0-0
Will Mortimore F	8	0	3	0	0-0	0-0
Chris Davis Jr. G	5	4	0	0	2-4	0-1
Kendall Taylor G	2	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Djordje Curcic G	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Joey Scarpitti, Mister Dean, AJ Fowler, Colby Duggan, Jlynn Counter

EVAN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Keishon Porter G	35	14	3	1	6-13	0-4
Alex Hemenway G	31	13	1	2	3-7	1-3
Leif Moeller G	29	5	2	1	2-6	1-3
Connor Turnbull F	23	18	8	2	7-17	1-3
Joshua Hughes F	15	2	0	0	1-2	0-0
Bench
Trent Hundley F	25	5	3	2	2-5	1-3
AJ Casey F	22	2	3	1	0-1	0-1
Bryce Quinet G	14	0	0	1	0-4	0-2
James Dyson-Merwe F	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Weston Aigner G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Kaia Berridge G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Dakota Candler, Leo Amari IV, Marlon Barnes Jr., Aaron Gutman

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	COFC -4.5	COFC -5.8	COFC +1.3	W COFC covered
Total	141.5	147.3	Over 5.8	L Under
Projected score	—	COFC 76.6 · EVAN 70.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	COFC -3.7	COFC -11.0
1H total	69.0	69
1H projected score	COFC 36.3 · EVAN 32.7	COFC 40 · EVAN 29

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
COFC LWLWL	2-4	33%	1-2	2-1
EVAN WLLWL	2-3	40%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: COFC neutral site, as favorite; EVAN neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
COFC OUUUU	2-4	33%	2-4
EVAN UOOOU	3-2	60%	1-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
COFClast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	2-4 33%
EVANlast 5	1-4 20%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Charleston

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −5.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@LIB	L 75-90	+9.5	L −5.5	145.5	O 165
Nov 8	vsFAU	L 77-94	+5.5	L −11.5	156.5	O 171
Nov 14	vsSCST	W 88-61	-18.5	W +8.5	156.5	U 149
Nov 17	vsDRKE	L 62-71	-7.5	L −16.5	153.5	U 133
Nov 21	vsMASS	W 69-65	-3.5	W +0.5	161.5	U 134
Nov 23	vsYALE	L 63-74	+6.5	L −4.5	148.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LIB

L 75-90

−5.5

FAU

L 77-94

−11.5

SCST

W 88-61

+8.5

DRKE

L 62-71

−16.5

MASS

W 69-65

+0.5

YALE

L 63-74

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LIB

L 75-90

+19.5

FAU

L 77-94

+14.5

SCST

W 88-61

−7.5

DRKE

L 62-71

−20.5

MASS

W 69-65

−27.5

YALE

L 63-74

−11.5

over 2under 4avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Evansville

5 games played

Straight up

1-4

20% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −6.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-420%

L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-340%

W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@PUR	L 51-82	+33.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 133
Nov 12	vsMTSU	L 72-77	-2.5	L −7.5	140.5	O 149
Nov 18	vsUTA	L 76-84	-2.5	L −10.5	138.5	O 160
Nov 21	vsORST	W 73-69	+6.5	W +10.5	136.5	O 142
Nov 23	vsAKR	L 59-97	+11.5	L −26.5	156.5	U 156

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PUR

L 51-82

+2.5

MTSU

L 72-77

−7.5

UTA

L 76-84

−10.5

ORST

W 73-69

+10.5

AKR

L 59-97

−26.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PUR

L 51-82

−17.5

MTSU

L 72-77

+8.5

UTA

L 76-84

+21.5

ORST

W 73-69

+5.5

AKR

L 59-97

−0.5

over 3under 2avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Charleston Cougars vs Evansville Purple Aces

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Charleston

Evansville

Charleston

Evansville