Evansville Purple Aces vs Oregon State Beavers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 21, 8:00 PM ETUVI Sports & Fitness Center · Neutral site

#255EVANEvansville73▲ winner

Final

#99ORSTOregon St69final

Closing lineORST -6.5✓ EVAN covered by 10.5

Closing total136.5Over by 5.5

Season records: Evansville and Oregon St
EVAN	This season	ORST
0-3	Record	3-1
1-2	ATS	1-3
2-1	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: EVAN 68–77 ORST · ✗ ORST (76%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
EVAN	30	43	73
ORST	28	41	69

1st half: EVAN 30, ORST 28 (EVAN by 2). The model had ORST by 4.7 and a total of 67.9 (actual 58).

Team stats

EVAN		ORST
20-50 40%	Field goals	22-59 37%
5-18 28%	3-pointers	6-25 24%
28-35 80%	Free throws	19-23 83%
34 12 off	Rebounds	34 14 off
8	Assists	12
6	Steals	9
2	Blocks	1
12	Turnovers	13
21	Fouls	24
26	Points in paint	24
15	Fast-break points	13

Players

EVAN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Joshua Hughes F	35	16	12	2	4-10	2-4
Leif Moeller G	33	14	1	1	4-8	2-3
Keishon Porter G	20	7	4	1	1-1	0-0
Alex Hemenway G	18	2	3	0	1-6	0-4
Connor Turnbull F	18	10	2	0	4-8	0-1
Bench
AJ Casey F	26	6	6	0	1-4	0-1
Bryce Quinet G	23	15	4	3	4-9	0-3
Trent Hundley F	18	3	0	1	1-2	1-1
Kaia Berridge G	9	0	1	0	0-2	0-1

Did not play: James Dyson-Merwe, Aaron Gutman, Weston Aigner, Dakota Candler, Leo Amari IV, Marlon Barnes Jr.

ORST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Josiah Lake II G	38	16	4	3	6-9	0-2
Dez White G	32	9	4	0	2-10	1-6
Isaiah Sy G	32	9	4	5	2-9	1-5
Johan Munch F	27	6	4	1	2-6	0-1
Noah Amenhauser C	21	17	5	0	6-9	0-0
Bench
Olavi Suutela F	16	0	2	0	0-1	0-1
Malcolm Christie G	16	9	2	1	3-6	3-5
Matija Samar G	10	3	4	1	1-4	1-2
Jorge Diaz-Graham F	5	0	0	1	0-3	0-3
Stephen Olowoniyi F	3	0	1	0	0-2	0-0

Did not play: Keziah Ekissi, Kaan Yarkut, Daisean Williford, Yaak Yaak, Gavin Marrs

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	ORST -6.5	ORST -8.1	ORST +1.6	L EVAN covered
Total	136.5	144.9	Over 8.4	W Over
Projected score	—	EVAN 68.4 · ORST 76.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ORST -4.7	EVAN -2.0
1H total	67.9	58
1H projected score	EVAN 31.6 · ORST 36.3	EVAN 30 · ORST 28

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
EVAN WLL	1-2	33%	—	1-0
ORST LLLW	1-3	25%	—	0-3

Venue/role: EVAN neutral site, as underdog; ORST neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
EVAN UOO	2-1	67%	0-3
ORST UOUO	2-2	50%	3-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EVANlast 3	0-3 0%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%
ORSTlast 4	3-1 75%	1-3 25%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Evansville

3 games played

Straight up

0-3

0% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −5.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +4.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-30%

L L L

3 straight losses0 of 3 won

Against the spread

1-233%

W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of 3 covered

Over / Under

2-167%

U O O

2 straight overs2 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@PUR	L 51-82	+33.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 133
Nov 12	vsMTSU	L 72-77	-2.5	L −7.5	140.5	O 149
Nov 18	vsUTA	L 76-84	-2.5	L −10.5	138.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PUR

L 51-82

+2.5

MTSU

L 72-77

−7.5

UTA

L 76-84

−10.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −5.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PUR

L 51-82

−17.5

MTSU

L 72-77

+8.5

UTA

L 76-84

+21.5

over 2under 1avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Oregon St

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-325%

L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNDSU	W 67-65	-9.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 132
Nov 7	vsUIC	W 76-73	-6.5	L −3.5	146.5	O 149
Nov 12	vsUNT	W 66-64	-3.5	L −1.5	134.5	U 130
Nov 17	@ORE	L 75-87	+13.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NDSU

W 67-65

−7.5

UIC

W 76-73

−3.5

UNT

W 66-64

−1.5

ORE

L 75-87

+1.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NDSU

W 67-65

−12.5

UIC

W 76-73

+2.5

UNT

W 66-64

−4.5

ORE

L 75-87

+20.5

over 2under 2avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Evansville vs Oregon St

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Evansville

Oregon St

Evansville

Oregon St