Strahan Arena at the University Events Center · at Texas St
Closing line
TXST -5.5✓ TXST covered by 3.5
TXST -5.5✓ TXST covered by 3.5Closing total131.5Under by 10.5
 LR | This season | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| 1-3 | ATS | 4-1 |
| 2-2 | O/U | 2-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: LR 64–73 TXST · ✓ TXST (78%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 26 | 30 | 56 |
| TXST | 28 | 37 | 65 |
1st half: LR 26, TXST 28 (TXST by 2). The model had TXST by 5.1 and a total of 63.9 (actual 54).
Team stats
| LR | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 20-54 37% | Field goals | 26-50 52% |
| 4-14 29% | 3-pointers | 4-11 36% |
| 12-18 67% | Free throws | 9-16 56% |
| 29 12 off | Rebounds | 37 11 off |
| 10 | Assists | 15 |
| 11 | Steals | 6 |
| 5 | Blocks | 3 |
| 15 | Turnovers | 17 |
| 15 | Fouls | 18 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 40 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 15 |
Players
| LR | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnathan Lawson G | 38 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 3-11 | 2-7 |
| Braxton Bayless G | 36 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4-14 | 2-4 |
| Kachi Nzeh F | 30 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 2-6 | 0-1 |
| Tuongthach Gatkek F | 27 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 5-6 | 0-0 |
| Terrion Burgess F | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Tracy Steele Jr. G | 29 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1-5 | 0-2 |
| Cameron Wallace F | 27 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 5-11 | 0-0 |
| Christian Hughes G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Caleb Pennyfeather F | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Joseph Thomas G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Travonne Jackson, Kellen Robinson, Khasen Robinson, Truman Claytor IV, KK Robinson
| TXST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Drone G | 32 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 6-9 | 0-1 |
| Franck Emmou G | 32 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 5-8 | 2-3 |
| DJ Hall F | 23 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 4-7 | 0-0 |
| Kaden Gumbs G | 17 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Makai Willis C | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Dimp Pernell G | 26 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 4-9 | 0-2 |
| Robert Fields C | 20 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Kyndall Davis G | 20 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 2-5 | 1-3 |
| Tay Knox C | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jaelyn Lee G | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Isaiah Barganier F | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jalen Bolden G | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Cameron Simpson, Ky Pernell, Deke Thompson
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketTXST -5.5
ModelTXST -8.7
Model edgeTXST +3.2
W TXST covered
Total
Market131.5
Model136.3
Model edgeOver 4.8
L Under
Projected score
LR 63.8 · TXST 72.5
LR 56 · TXST 65
Win probability
TXST 78%
1st half
Spread
TXST -5.1
TXST -2.0
Total
63.9
54 points
Projected score
LR 29.4 · TXST 34.5
LR 26 · TXST 28
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTXST -4.5
1 → TXST
CloseTXST -5.5
1 pt toward TXST
Total
Open136.5
▼ 5
Close131.5
Down 5 since the open
Moneyline
LR +215 · TXST -260
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TXST -4.5 · closed TXST -5.5 · moved 1 toward TXSTmodel TXST -8.5
model TXST -8.5
Opened 136.5 · closed 131.5 · moved 5 downmodel 136.5
model 136.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LRlast 4 | 1-3 25% | 1-3 25% | 2-2 50% |
| TXSTlast 5 | 3-2 60% | 4-1 80% | 2-3 40% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
LR 1–2 TXSTTXST leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · LR 1-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2023-24 | TXST 66 @ LR 71 | LR +1.5 | LR W |
| Feb 19, 2021-22 | LR 50 @ TXST 68 | TXST -15 | TXST W |
| Jan 20, 2021-22 | TXST 69 @ LR 59 | LR +8 | TXST W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Little Rock
4 games played
Straight up
1-3
25% wins
Against the spread
1-3
25% covers · avg −8.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-2
50% overs · avg −5.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
10
@
MILW
MILWL 72-92
−16.5
12
@
MARQ
MARQL 49-89
−18.5
15
@
BALL
BALLW 68-62
+8.5
18
@
MUR
MURL 68-89
−7.5
covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
10
@MILW
MILWL 72-92
+7.5
12
@MARQ
MARQL 49-89
−17.5
15
@BALL
BALLW 68-62
−16.5
18
@MUR
MURL 68-89
+3.5
over 2under 2avg −5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Texas St
5 games played
Straight up
3-2
60% wins
Against the spread
4-1
80% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-3
40% overs · avg −7.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
BGSU
BGSUL 48-83
−29.5
8
@
TULN
TULNL 71-79
+4.5
12
vs
UTSA
UTSAW 80-69
+8.5
15
vs
TXSO
TXSOW 77-67
+5.5
18
vs
ACU
ACUW 63-49
+12.5
covered 4didn’t cover 1avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@BGSU
BGSUL 48-83
−15.5
8
@TULN
TULNL 71-79
+3.5
12
vsUTSA
UTSAW 80-69
+1.5
15
vsTXSO
TXSOW 77-67
−0.5
18
vsACU
ACUW 63-49
−26.5
over 2under 3avg −7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Little Rock
1-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · United Athletic Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Murray St68–89
- W@ Ball State68–62
- L@ Marquette49–89
- L@ Milwaukee72–92
3 days since their last game.
Texas St
3-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Pac-12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Abilene Chrstn63–49
- Wvs Texas Southern77–67
- Wvs UTSA80–69
- L@ Tulane71–79
- L@ Bowling Green48–83
3 days since their last game.