Abilene Christian Wildcats at Texas State Bobcats: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 18, 8:00 PM ETStrahan Arena at the University Events Center · at Texas St

Final

#103TXSTTexas St63▲ winner

Closing lineTXST -1.5✓ TXST covered by 12.5

Closing total138.5Under by 26.5

Season records: Abilene Chrstn and Texas St
ACU	This season	TXST
1-1	Record	2-2
0-2	ATS	3-1
0-2	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ACU 70–72 TXST · ✓ TXST (57%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ACU	22	27	49
TXST	32	31	63

1st half: ACU 22, TXST 32 (TXST by 10). The model had TXST by 1.0 and a total of 66.5 (actual 54).

Team stats

ACU		TXST
17-55 31%	Field goals	21-46 46%
5-15 33%	3-pointers	5-8 63%
10-19 53%	Free throws	16-22 73%
34 17 off	Rebounds	38 12 off
6	Assists	8
14	Steals	11
5	Blocks	9
16	Turnovers	19
19	Fouls	15
22	Points in paint	30
8	Fast-break points	11

Players

ACU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Joseph Venzant G	26	4	2	0	1-3	1-2
Yaniel Rivera G	24	3	2	4	1-5	1-2
Bradyn Hubbard F	21	13	1	0	4-7	2-2
Rich Smith G	20	3	2	1	1-3	0-0
Cade Hornecker F	11	4	2	0	2-7	0-1
Bench
Cbo Newton G	26	6	2	1	2-7	1-3
Zy Wright G	18	4	4	0	2-5	0-1
Christian Alston G	15	6	3	0	2-6	0-1
Joseph Scott F	14	4	7	0	1-4	0-0
Ma'Shy Hill F	9	2	0	0	1-4	0-0
Isaac Dye G	9	0	1	0	0-3	0-3
Tylan Lewis G	4	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Isaiah Neyhart G	3	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

TXST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
DJ Hall F	37	11	10	2	3-6	0-0
Mark Drone G	30	6	4	0	2-10	0-2
Franck Emmou G	29	10	4	2	3-7	2-2
Kaden Gumbs G	25	8	3	1	3-4	1-1
Makai Willis C	19	11	2	0	4-6	0-0
Bench
Dimp Pernell G	19	13	2	2	4-6	2-2
Kyndall Davis G	19	2	3	0	1-2	0-1
Tay Knox C	16	2	5	1	1-4	0-0
Jalen Bolden G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Jaelyn Lee G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Isaiah Barganier F	1	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Cameron Simpson G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Deke Thompson G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Ky Pernell, Robert Fields

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	TXST -1.5	TXST -1.9	TXST +0.4	W TXST covered
Total	138.5	141.9	Over 3.4	L Under
Projected score	—	ACU 70 · TXST 71.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TXST -1.0	TXST -10.0
1H total	66.5	54
1H projected score	ACU 32.8 · TXST 33.7	ACU 22 · TXST 32

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ACU LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1
TXST LWWW	3-1	75%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: ACU away, as underdog; TXST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ACU UU	0-2	0%	1-1
TXST UOOU	2-2	50%	2-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ACUlast 2	1-1 50%	0-2 0%	0-2 0%
TXSTlast 4	2-2 50%	3-1 75%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

ACU 1–0 TXSTACU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · ACU 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 16, 2024-25	TXST 60 @ ACU 72	ACU -1.5	ACU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Abilene Chrstn

2 games played

Straight up

1-1

50% wins

Against the spread

0-2

0% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-2

0% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-150%

W L

1 of 2 wonno streak

Against the spread

0-20%

L L

2 straight misses ATS0 of 2 covered

Over / Under

0-20%

U U

2 straight unders0 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	vsOMA	W 73-71	-4.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 144
Nov 14	@SFA	L 66-76	+6.5	L −3.5	142.5	U 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OMA

W 73-71

−2.5

SFA

L 66-76

−3.5

covered 0didn’t cover 2avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OMA

W 73-71

−6.5

SFA

L 66-76

−0.5

over 0under 2avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Texas St

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg −2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg −2.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-175%

L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-250%

U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BGSU	L 48-83	+5.5	L −29.5	146.5	U 131
Nov 8	@TULN	L 71-79	+12.5	W +4.5	146.5	O 150
Nov 12	vsUTSA	W 80-69	-2.5	W +8.5	147.5	O 149
Nov 15	vsTXSO	W 77-67	-4.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BGSU

L 48-83

−29.5

TULN

L 71-79

+4.5

UTSA

W 80-69

+8.5

TXSO

W 77-67

+5.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BGSU

L 48-83

−15.5

TULN

L 71-79

+3.5

UTSA

W 80-69

+1.5

TXSO

W 77-67

−0.5

over 2under 2avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Abilene Chrstn @ Texas St

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Abilene Chrstn

Texas St

Abilene Chrstn

Texas St