Detroit Pistons at Charlotte Hornets: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 7:30 PM ETSpectrum Center · at Hornets · Conference game

LineDET -6.5moved 2 toward DET

Total209.5up 1 from 208.5

Season records: Pistons and Hornets
DET	This season	CHA
5-1	Record	3-4
5-1	ATS	3-4
2-4	O/U	1-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DET 109–104 · win probability DET 65%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

DET -6.5

moved 2 toward DET

Total

209.5

model 212.7 · Over by 3

Model edge

CHA by 1

model vs market

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DET has more of the edges

DET 7, CHA 3 · 2026-27 so far

DETBig

CHA offense vs DET defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings

DETBig

Three-pointers

DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%; CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%. Threes are 43.3% and 50.8% of their shots

DETBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DET 15.6%, CHA 18.8%. Forced: DET 17.1%, CHA 14.5%

DETBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: DET 53.1 and allows 48.8; CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1

CHABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DET 27.2%, CHA 31.6%. Defensive: DET 72.8%, CHA 76.6%

CHABig

DET offense vs CHA defense

Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

DETSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: DET 28.9, CHA 18.9. Allowed: DET 28.1, CHA 28.4

DETSmall

Recent form

Last 5: DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0; CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4

Context

Schedule so far

DET has played the 17th-hardest schedule, CHA the 22nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

CHASmall

Home court

CHA at home. This season: CHA 2-2 at home, DET 3-1 away

DETSmall

Rest

DET 3 days since its last game, CHA 2

Context

Tempo

About 100 possessions: DET plays 100.9 a game (29th fastest), CHA 98.3 (30th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DET 100%, CHA 100%. Transfers in: DET 0, CHA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

NBA games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Road favorites of 3 to 6.5	630	64%	50%	51%
Conference games at this spread	970	62%	49%	52%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite	33	67%	42%	36%
Games with a total of 205 to 209.5	110	56%	45%	57%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DET WWLWW	5-1	83%	3-1	4-0
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	2-2	1-4

Venue/role: DET away, as favorite; CHA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DET OUUUU	2-4	33%	5-1
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DETlast 6	5-1 83%	5-1 83%	2-4 33%
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pistons

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 4	vs PHI	W106–93WU
Nov 8	vs LAL	W113–110WU
Nov 9	vs WSH	W117–95WU

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 4	@ BKN	W110–103WU
Nov 6	vs BOS	L102–113LU
Nov 9	vs CLE	L113–118WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

DET 12–6 CHADET leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · DET has won the last 6 meetings · DET 10-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 28, 2026-27	CHA 89 @ DET 97	DET -7.5	DET W
Apr 10, 2025-26	DET 118 @ CHA 100	CHA -6.5	DET W
Feb 9, 2025-26	DET 110 @ CHA 104	CHA +2.5	DET W
Dec 20, 2025-26	CHA 86 @ DET 112	DET -10.5	DET W
Feb 9, 2024-25	CHA 102 @ DET 112	DET -11.5	CHA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pistons

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

5-1

83% covers · avg +5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −11.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsBOS	W 121-113	+1.5	W +9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	@MIA	W 128-111	-2.5	W +14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 25	@PHI	W 106-93	-1.5	W +11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 27	@NY	L 97-111	+4.5	L −9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	vsCHA	W 97-89	-7.5	W +0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@BKN	W 110-94	-8.5	W +7.5	222.5	U 204

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BOS

W 121-113

+9.5

MIA

W 128-111

+14.5

PHI

W 106-93

+11.5

L 97-111

−9.5

CHA

W 97-89

+0.5

BKN

W 110-94

+7.5

covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BOS

W 121-113

+13.5

MIA

W 128-111

+3.5

PHI

W 106-93

−29.5

L 97-111

−12.5

CHA

W 97-89

−26.5

BKN

W 110-94

−18.5

over 2under 4avg −11.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pistons has the better starters

Position by position: Pistons 4, Hornets 0, even 1

PistonsBetterHornets

G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast Score 47

DETSmall

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast Score 79

DETSmall

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 77

Even

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast Score 97

DETSmall

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 30

DETSmall

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

PistonsBetterHornets

DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6

CHABig

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1

DETBig

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players

DETBig

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players

DETBig

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

Bench+22.1 · 5 players

DETBig

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDET betterCHA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pistons

Guards

C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min

Forwards

D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min

Centers

I. Jones5 min

Out

I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DET109.8 #21

CHA98.3 #30

Points per possession

DET1.09 #18

CHA0.99 #30

Pace (possessions)

DET100.9 #29

CHA98.3 #30

Shooting

Effective FG%

DET53.1 #17

CHA48.4 #29

3-point %

DET36.3 #9

CHA29.6 #28

3-point attempt rate

DET43.3 #13

CHA50.8 #2

Free throw rate

DET28.9 #14

CHA18.9 #30

Possessions

Turnover rate

DET15.6 #17

CHA18.8 #29

Offensive rebound rate

DET27.2 #17

CHA31.6 #4

Assists per game

DET26.7 #15

CHA21.6 #30

Defense

Points allowed

DET101.8 #1

CHA106.4 #4

Points allowed per possession

DET1.01 #1

CHA1.09 #15

Opponent effective FG%

DET48.8 #2

CHA53.1 #15

Opponent 3-point %

DET32.5 #10

CHA37.5 #24

Turnovers forced

DET17.1 #6

CHA14.5 #23

Defensive rebound rate

DET72.8 #15

CHA76.6 #5

Steals per game

DET9.0 #12

CHA7.1 #25

Blocks per game

DET6.7 #4

CHA5.0 #15

DET		CHA
Scoring
109.8 #21	Points per game	98.3 #30
1.09 #18	Points per possession	0.99 #30
100.9 #29	Pace (possessions)	98.3 #30
Shooting
53.1 #17	Effective FG%	48.4 #29
36.3 #9	3-point %	29.6 #28
43.3 #13	3-point attempt rate	50.8 #2
28.9 #14	Free throw rate	18.9 #30
Possessions
15.6 #17	Turnover rate	18.8 #29
27.2 #17	Offensive rebound rate	31.6 #4
26.7 #15	Assists per game	21.6 #30
Defense
101.8 #1	Points allowed	106.4 #4
1.01 #1	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #15
48.8 #2	Opponent effective FG%	53.1 #15
32.5 #10	Opponent 3-point %	37.5 #24
17.1 #6	Turnovers forced	14.5 #23
72.8 #15	Defensive rebound rate	76.6 #5
9.0 #12	Steals per game	7.1 #25
6.7 #4	Blocks per game	5.0 #15

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pistons

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Nets110–94
Wvs Hornets97–89
L@ Knicks97–111
W@ 76ers106–93
W@ Heat128–111

3 days since their last game.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

2 days since their last game.

Pistons @ Hornets

What could decide it: DET has more of the edges

How games like this went

Market vs model

Market

Public betting

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Pistons

Hornets

Pistons has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pistons

Hornets