1. Home
  2. NBA
  3. Sun, Nov 8
  4. LAL @ DET
NBA · Sun, Nov 8

Lakers @ Pistons

Little Caesars Arena · at Pistons
#10LALLakers
@
#4DETPistons
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
LALThis seasonDET
5-2Record5-1
4-3ATS5-1
4-3O/U2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DET 116–111 · win probability DET 64%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 226.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 211-223 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DET has more of the edges

LAL 0, DET 3 · 2026-27 so far
DETSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: LAL 26.8%, DET 27.2%. Defensive: LAL 67.4%, DET 72.8%
Context
Tempo
About 102 possessions: LAL plays 102.9 a game (17th fastest), DET 100.9 (29th). Faster games mean more points
DETSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: LAL 18.3%, DET 15.6%. Forced: LAL 17.8%, DET 17.1%
DETSmall
Home court
DET at home. This season: DET 2-0 at home, LAL 2-1 away
Even
Three-pointers
LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%; DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%. Threes are 45.7% and 43.3% of their shots
Even
Recent form
Last 5: LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4; DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0
Even
LAL offense vs DET defense
Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: LAL 37.2, DET 28.9. Allowed: LAL 30.7, DET 28.1
Context
Schedule so far
LAL has played the 16th-hardest schedule, DET the 17th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7; DET 53.1 and allows 48.8
Even
DET offense vs LAL defense
Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: LAL 100%, DET 100%. Transfers in: LAL 0, DET 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDET -4.9
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model226.3
Model edge—
Projected score
LAL 110.7 · DET 115.6
Win probability
DET 64%
1st half
Spread
DET -2.6
Total
113.4
Projected score
LAL 55.4 · DET 58
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Pistons has the better starters

Position by position: Lakers 1, Pistons 2, even 2
LakersBetterPistons
G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82
LALBig
G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast Score 47
G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79
Even
G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast Score 79
G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50
DETSmall
F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 77
F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70
DETSmall
F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast Score 97
C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42
Even
F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 30
LakersBetterPistons
LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2
Even
DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1
LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2
Even
DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6
Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players
LALBig
Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players
Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players
DETBig
Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players
Bench+6.7 · 5 players
DETBig
Bench+22.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestLAL betterDET betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Lakers
Guards
A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min
Forwards
J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew
Centers
W. Kessler31 min
Out
Z. WilliamsOut
Pistons
Guards
C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min
Forwards
D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min
Centers
I. Jones5 min
Out
I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
LALDET
Scoring
120.3 #5Points per game109.8 #21
1.18 #2Points per possession1.09 #18
102.9 #17Pace (possessions)100.9 #29
Shooting
60.1 #1Effective FG%53.1 #17
38.9 #43-point %36.3 #9
45.7 #93-point attempt rate43.3 #13
37.2 #2Free throw rate28.9 #14
Possessions
18.3 #28Turnover rate15.6 #17
26.8 #19Offensive rebound rate27.2 #17
23.4 #27Assists per game26.7 #15
Defense
115.0 #17Points allowed101.8 #1
1.11 #19Points allowed per possession1.01 #1
53.7 #17Opponent effective FG%48.8 #2
36.7 #22Opponent 3-point %32.5 #10
17.8 #4Turnovers forced17.1 #6
67.4 #29Defensive rebound rate72.8 #15
10.4 #4Steals per game9.0 #12
6.7 #3Blocks per game6.7 #4
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Raptors131–125
  • L@ Warriors95–112
  • W@ Clippers103–87
  • Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
  • W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Pistons

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • W@ Nets110–94
  • Wvs Hornets97–89
  • L@ Knicks97–111
  • W@ 76ers106–93
  • W@ Heat128–111

A week or more of rest.