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NBA · Thu, Nov 12

Pistons @ Wizards

Capital One Arena · at Wizards · Conference game
#4DETPistons
@
#24WSHWizards
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
DETThis seasonWSH
5-1Record3-3
5-1ATS3-3
2-4O/U1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DET 116–108 · win probability DET 71%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 223.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 224-242 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DET has more of the edges

DET 6, WSH 2 · 2026-27 so far
DETBig
WSH offense vs DET defense
Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings
DETBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DET 27.2%, WSH 20.9%. Defensive: DET 72.8%, WSH 68.0%
WSHBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: DET 28.9, WSH 34.2. Allowed: DET 28.1, WSH 21.8
Context
Schedule so far
DET has played the 17th-hardest schedule, WSH the 26th. A record against a soft schedule means less
DETSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: DET 15.6%, WSH 14.6%. Forced: DET 17.1%, WSH 13.3%
DETSmall
Recent form
Last 5: DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0; WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4
DETSmall
DET offense vs WSH defense
Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings
DETSmall
Three-pointers
DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%; WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%. Threes are 43.3% and 37.6% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 102 possessions: DET plays 100.9 a game (29th fastest), WSH 102.3 (20th). Faster games mean more points
WSHSmall
Home court
WSH at home. This season: WSH 2-1 at home, DET 3-1 away
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: DET 53.1 and allows 48.8; WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DET 100%, WSH 100%. Transfers in: DET 0, WSH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDET -7.9
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model223.8
Model edge—
Projected score
DET 115.9 · WSH 107.9
Win probability
DET 71%
1st half
Spread
DET -4.5
Total
112.2
Projected score
DET 58.4 · WSH 53.8
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Pistons has the better starters

Position by position: Pistons 3, Wizards 0, even 2
PistonsBetterWizards
G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast Score 47
DETSmall
G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23
G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast Score 79
DETBig
G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4
F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 77
Even
F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86
F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast Score 97
DETBig
F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36
F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 30
No call
F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked
PistonsBetterWizards
DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6
DETSmall
WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9
DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1
DETBig
WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5
Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players
DETBig
Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players
Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players
DETBig
Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players
Bench+22.1 · 5 players
DETBig
Bench-14.5 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestDET betterWSH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Pistons
Guards
C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min
Forwards
D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min
Centers
I. Jones5 min
Out
I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut
Wizards
Guards
T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min
Forwards
A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min
Centers
D. Ayton14 min
Out
A. GillOutR. BeekmanOutJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrOut
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
DETWSH
Scoring
109.8Points per game110.5
1.09Points per possession1.08
100.9Pace (possessions)102.3
Shooting
53.1Effective FG%52.1
36.33-point %29.3
43.33-point attempt rate37.6
28.9Free throw rate34.2
Possessions
15.6Turnover rate14.6
27.2Offensive rebound rate20.9
26.7Assists per game24.5
Defense
101.8Points allowed109.7
1.01Points allowed per possession1.07
48.8Opponent effective FG%48.1
32.5Opponent 3-point %28.7
17.1Turnovers forced13.3
72.8Defensive rebound rate68.0
9.0Steals per game7.2
6.7Blocks per game5.3
DETWSH
Scoring
109.8 #21Points per game110.5 #20
1.09 #18Points per possession1.08 #19
100.9 #29Pace (possessions)102.3 #20
Shooting
53.1 #17Effective FG%52.1 #20
36.3 #93-point %29.3 #29
43.3 #133-point attempt rate37.6 #28
28.9 #14Free throw rate34.2 #5
Possessions
15.6 #17Turnover rate14.6 #8
27.2 #17Offensive rebound rate20.9 #29
26.7 #15Assists per game24.5 #24
Defense
101.8 #1Points allowed109.7 #11
1.01 #1Points allowed per possession1.07 #11
48.8 #2Opponent effective FG%48.1 #1
32.5 #10Opponent 3-point %28.7 #1
17.1 #6Turnovers forced13.3 #27
72.8 #15Defensive rebound rate68.0 #28
9.0 #12Steals per game7.2 #24
6.7 #4Blocks per game5.3 #9
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row, and the better team's bar is solid; hover or tap a row for both teams' numbers and ranks. In the table, a green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pistons

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • W@ Nets110–94
  • Wvs Hornets97–89
  • L@ Knicks97–111
  • W@ 76ers106–93
  • W@ Heat128–111

A week or more of rest.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Hornets95–79
  • L@ Cavaliers111–121
  • L@ Hornets103–110
  • W@ Bulls124–120
  • Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.