American University Eagles at Cincinnati Bearcats: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 7:00 PM ETFifth Third Arena · at Cincinnati

LineCIN -24.5no move

Total151.5up 4 from 147.5

Season records: American and Cincinnati
AMER	This season	CIN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CIN 83–61 · win probability CIN 97%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

CIN -24.5

no move since the open

Total

151.5

model 144.1 · Under by 7.5

Model edge

AMER by 3.5

model vs market

Public on the spread

79% AMER

74% of the money

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CIN has more of the edges

AMER 2, CIN 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

AMER has played the 263rd-hardest schedule, CIN the 39th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CINBig

AMER offense vs CIN defense

Offense 201st of 366 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings

AMERBig

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: AMER 96%, CIN 1%. Transfers in: AMER 0, CIN 12. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

CINBig

Three-pointers

AMER hits 33.0% and allows 35.5%; CIN hits 33.9% and allows 31.0%. Threes are 46.5% and 43.8% of their shots

CINBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: AMER 28.7, CIN 29.4. Allowed: AMER 42.1, CIN 30.0

CINBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: AMER 51.5 and allows 54.4; CIN 50.5 and allows 47.4

CINSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: AMER 26.9%, CIN 30.6%. Defensive: AMER 70.6%, CIN 72.7%

CINSmall

CIN offense vs AMER defense

Offense 49th of 366 against a defense 122nd, on the model’s ratings

AMERSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: AMER 15.6%, CIN 17.0%. Forced: AMER 19.2%, CIN 18.2%

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: AMER plays 66.7 a game (289th fastest), CIN 69.4 (152nd). Faster games mean more points

CINSmall

Home court

CIN at home. This season: CIN 0-0 at home, AMER 0-0 away

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of 20 or more	1165	99%	50%	52%
Non-conference games at this spread	1090	99%	50%	52%
Games with a total of 150 to 154.5	2755	75%	51%	50%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenCIN -24.5

no move

NowCIN -24.5

No change since the open

Total

Open147.5

▲ 4

Now151.5

Up 4 since the open

Moneyline

AMER +2500 · CIN -10000

Line movement

Median of 7 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened CIN -24.5 · unchangedmodel CIN -21

model CIN -21

Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

AMER +24.5Spread

CIN -24.5

Bets

79%21%

Money

74%26%

AMERWinner

CIN

Bets

97%

Money

99%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Mon, Nov 2, 4:41 AM ET. ⓘ

Books

7 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	AMER	CIN	Over	Under	AMER	CIN
BetMGMMGM	-24.5-110	+24.5-110	151.5-105	151.5-115	+2500	-10000
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-24-105	+24-115	151-115	151-105	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	-25.5-121	+25.5-106	149.5-117	149.5-109	—	—
BovadaBovada	-24-105	+24-115	151-115	151-105	—	—
DraftKingsDK	-24.5-112	+24.5-108	151.5-110	151.5-110	+2500	-9000
FanDuelFD	-24.5-110	+24.5-110	149.5-110	149.5-110	+3500	-10000
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-24-101	+24-111	151-113	151-103	—	—

Prices from The Odds API, updated 2:00 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	CIN -24.5	CIN -21.2	AMER +3.3
Total	151.5	144.1	Under 7.4
Projected score	—	AMER 61.4 · CIN 82.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CIN -12.5	—
1H total	67.4	—
1H projected score	AMER 27.5 · CIN 39.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AMER WWLLL	16-14	53%	8-7	6-6
CIN WWLLL	14-19	42%	10-8	10-12

Venue/role: AMER away, as underdog; CIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
AMER UUOUO	15-15	50%	14-16
CIN OOUOU	13-20	39%	18-15

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AMER	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
CIN	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

American

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 6	@ CLEM	No recent meeting
Nov 11	@ DREX	W75–73LO
Nov 15	vs HARV	W67–55WU

Cincinnati

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 5	vs GB	No recent meeting
Nov 9	vs MINN	No recent meeting
Nov 14	@ DAY	W74–62WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

American

30 games played

Straight up

14-16

47% wins

Against the spread

16-14

53% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1647%

L W L L W L W W W L L W W L L W W W W L L L L L W W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1453%

W W L W W L W L W L L W W W L W W W W L L L L L W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1550%

O O O O O U O O O O U U U U O U U U O U U U O O U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@WAKE	L 74-88	+19.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 162
Nov 9	vsPENN	W 84-78	+1.5	W +7.5	154.5	O 162
Nov 12	@GW	L 67-107	+17.5	L −22.5	151.5	O 174
Nov 18	@RUTG	L 71-80	+16.5	W +7.5	143.5	O 151
Nov 28	vsME	W 74-61	-7.5	W +5.5	133.5	O 135
Nov 29	vsSIE	L 55-59	+2.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 114
Nov 30	vsLONG	W 92-66	-5.5	W +20.5	148.5	O 158
Dec 3	vsDREX	W 75-73	-4.5	L −2.5	137.5	O 148
Dec 6	vsUMES	W 78-60	-10.5	W +7.5	130.5	O 138
Dec 18	@VCU	L 83-105	+19.5	L −2.5	154.5	O 188
Dec 22	@UVA	L 51-95	+27.5	L −16.5	153.5	U 146
Dec 31	vsL-MD	W 84-69	-8.5	W +6.5	154.5	U 153
Jan 3	@BU	W 64-62	+1.5	W +3.5	142.5	U 126
Jan 7	@COLG	L 62-64	+5.5	W +3.5	148.5	U 126
Jan 10	vsHC	L 73-84	-8.5	L −19.5	137.5	O 157
Jan 12	vsNAVY	W 65-51	+2.5	W +16.5	139.5	U 116
Jan 18	@ARMY	W 78-67	-4.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 21	vsCOLG	W 70-66	-1.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 136
Jan 24	@HC	W 76-67	-4.5	W +4.5	139.5	O 143
Jan 28	@L-MD	L 68-77	-4.5	L −13.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 31	vsLAF	L 65-67	-5.5	L −7.5	142.5	U 132
Feb 4	vsBUCK	L 59-60	-7.5	L −8.5	141.5	U 119
Feb 7	@NAVY	L 73-82	+4.5	L −4.5	134.5	O 155
Feb 11	@LEH	L 82-90	-1.5	L −9.5	140.5	O 172
Feb 14	vsARMY	W 75-63	-9.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 138
Feb 18	@BUCK	W 75-57	-3.5	W +14.5	140.5	U 132
Feb 22	@LAF	W 75-61	-3.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 136
Feb 25	vsLEH	L 73-78	-7.5	L −12.5	140.5	O 151
Feb 28	vsBU	L 65-68	-3.5	L −6.5	140.5	U 133
Mar 5	@BU	L 73-75	+1.5	L −0.5	141.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WAKE

L 74-88

+5.5

PENN

W 84-78

+7.5

L 67-107

−22.5

RUTG

L 71-80

+7.5

W 74-61

+5.5

SIE

L 55-59

−1.5

LONG

W 92-66

+20.5

DREX

W 75-73

−2.5

UMES

W 78-60

+7.5

VCU

L 83-105

−2.5

UVA

L 51-95

−16.5

L-MD

W 84-69

+6.5

W 64-62

+3.5

COLG

L 62-64

+3.5

L 73-84

−19.5

NAVY

W 65-51

+16.5

ARMY

W 78-67

+6.5

COLG

W 70-66

+2.5

W 76-67

+4.5

L-MD

L 68-77

−13.5

LAF

L 65-67

−7.5

BUCK

L 59-60

−8.5

NAVY

L 73-82

−4.5

LEH

L 82-90

−9.5

ARMY

W 75-63

+2.5

BUCK

W 75-57

+14.5

LAF

W 75-61

+10.5

LEH

L 73-78

−12.5

L 65-68

−6.5

L 73-75

−0.5

covered 16didn’t cover 14avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WAKE

L 74-88

+22.5

PENN

W 84-78

+7.5

L 67-107

+22.5

RUTG

L 71-80

+7.5

W 74-61

+1.5

SIE

L 55-59

−23.5

LONG

W 92-66

+9.5

DREX

W 75-73

+10.5

UMES

W 78-60

+7.5

VCU

L 83-105

+33.5

UVA

L 51-95

−7.5

L-MD

W 84-69

−1.5

W 64-62

−16.5

COLG

L 62-64

−22.5

L 73-84

+19.5

NAVY

W 65-51

−23.5

ARMY

W 78-67

−2.5

COLG

W 70-66

−10.5

W 76-67

+3.5

L-MD

L 68-77

−2.5

LAF

L 65-67

−10.5

BUCK

L 59-60

−22.5

NAVY

L 73-82

+20.5

LEH

L 82-90

+31.5

ARMY

W 75-63

−6.5

BUCK

W 75-57

−8.5

LAF

W 75-61

−5.5

LEH

L 73-78

+10.5

L 65-68

−7.5

L 73-75

+6.5

over 15under 15avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Cincinnati

33 games played

Straight up

18-15

55% wins

Against the spread

14-19

42% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-20

39% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1555%

W W W W L W L W L L W L W L L L W W L L W L L W W W W L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1942%

W L W L L L L L L L W W W L L W W W L L W L L W W L W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-2039%

O U U U U O U U O U U U O U U U U O U O U U U O O U O O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWCU	W 94-63	-22.5	W +8.5	143.5	O 157
Nov 7	vsGAST	W 74-64	-29.5	L −19.5	151.5	U 138
Nov 11	vsDAY	W 74-62	-5.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 136
Nov 16	vsMSM	W 72-55	-25.5	L −8.5	145.5	U 127
Nov 21	vsLOU	L 64-74	+8.5	L −1.5	163.5	U 138
Nov 24	vsNJIT	W 94-67	-34.5	L −7.5	141.5	O 161
Nov 26	vsEMU	L 56-64	-22.5	L −30.5	146.5	U 120
Dec 1	vsTAR	W 76-58	-24.5	L −6.5	142.5	U 134
Dec 5	@XAV	L 74-79	-1.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 153
Dec 13	vsUGA	L 65-84	+5.5	L −13.5	157.5	U 149
Dec 17	vsALST	W 88-51	-21.5	W +15.5	145.5	U 139
Dec 21	vsCLEM	L 65-68	+3.5	W +0.5	140.5	U 133
Dec 29	vsLIP	W 89-62	-13.5	W +13.5	150.5	O 151
Jan 3	vsHOU	L 60-67	+4.5	L −2.5	135.5	U 127
Jan 6	@WVU	L 60-62	-1.5	L −3.5	132.5	U 122
Jan 11	@UCF	L 72-73	+2.5	W +1.5	150.5	U 145
Jan 14	vsCOLO	W 77-68	-8.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 145
Jan 17	vsISU	W 79-70	+5.5	W +14.5	141.5	O 149
Jan 21	@ARIZ	L 51-77	+13.5	L −12.5	152.5	U 128
Jan 24	@ASU	L 68-82	-3.5	L −17.5	146.5	O 150
Jan 28	vsBAY	W 67-57	-3.5	W +6.5	145.5	U 124
Jan 31	@HOU	L 54-76	+13.5	L −8.5	135.5	U 130
Feb 5	vsWVU	L 54-59	-5.5	L −10.5	127.5	U 113
Feb 8	vsUCF	W 92-72	-4.5	W +15.5	146.5	O 164
Feb 11	@KSU	W 91-62	-2.5	W +26.5	147.5	O 153
Feb 15	vsUTAH	W 69-65	-12.5	L −8.5	139.5	U 134
Feb 21	@KU	W 84-68	+8.5	W +24.5	139.5	O 152
Feb 24	@TTU	L 68-80	+6.5	L −5.5	143.5	O 148
Feb 28	vsOKST	W 91-68	-9.5	W +13.5	151.5	O 159
Mar 3	vsBYU	W 90-68	-1.5	W +20.5	151.5	O 158
Mar 7	@TCU	L 63-73	+2.5	L −7.5	140.5	U 136
Mar 10	vsUTAH	W 73-66	-12.5	L −5.5	138.5	O 139
Mar 11	vsUCF	L 65-66	-3.5	L −4.5	149.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WCU

W 94-63

+8.5

GAST

W 74-64

−19.5

DAY

W 74-62

+6.5

MSM

W 72-55

−8.5

LOU

L 64-74

−1.5

NJIT

W 94-67

−7.5

EMU

L 56-64

−30.5

TAR

W 76-58

−6.5

XAV

L 74-79

−6.5

UGA

L 65-84

−13.5

ALST

W 88-51

+15.5

CLEM

L 65-68

+0.5

LIP

W 89-62

+13.5

HOU

L 60-67

−2.5

WVU

L 60-62

−3.5

UCF

L 72-73

+1.5

COLO

W 77-68

+0.5

ISU

W 79-70

+14.5

ARIZ

L 51-77

−12.5

ASU

L 68-82

−17.5

BAY

W 67-57

+6.5

HOU

L 54-76

−8.5

WVU

L 54-59

−10.5

UCF

W 92-72

+15.5

KSU

W 91-62

+26.5

UTAH

W 69-65

−8.5

W 84-68

+24.5

TTU

L 68-80

−5.5

OKST

W 91-68

+13.5

BYU

W 90-68

+20.5

TCU

L 63-73

−7.5

UTAH

W 73-66

−5.5

UCF

L 65-66

−4.5

covered 14didn’t cover 19avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WCU

W 94-63

+13.5

GAST

W 74-64

−13.5

DAY

W 74-62

−11.5

MSM

W 72-55

−18.5

LOU

L 64-74

−25.5

NJIT

W 94-67

+19.5

EMU

L 56-64

−26.5

TAR

W 76-58

−8.5

XAV

L 74-79

+5.5

UGA

L 65-84

−8.5

ALST

W 88-51

−6.5

CLEM

L 65-68

−7.5

LIP

W 89-62

+0.5

HOU

L 60-67

−8.5

WVU

L 60-62

−10.5

UCF

L 72-73

−5.5

COLO

W 77-68

−0.5

ISU

W 79-70

+7.5

ARIZ

L 51-77

−24.5

ASU

L 68-82

+3.5

BAY

W 67-57

−21.5

HOU

L 54-76

−5.5

WVU

L 54-59

−14.5

UCF

W 92-72

+17.5

KSU

W 91-62

+5.5

UTAH

W 69-65

−5.5

W 84-68

+12.5

TTU

L 68-80

+4.5

OKST

W 91-68

+7.5

BYU

W 90-68

+6.5

TCU

L 63-73

−4.5

UTAH

W 73-66

+0.5

UCF

L 65-66

−18.5

over 13under 20avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cincinnati has the better starters

Position by position: American 1, Cincinnati 4, even 0

AmericanBetterCincinnati

G W. Nausadis7.5 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 25

CINBig

G J. Campbell TR19.3 pts · 4.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 95

G M. Collins13.2 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 97

AMERSmall

G T. Carson TR12.2 pts · 6.5 reb · 2.9 ast Score 75

F G. Jones12.4 pts · 4.9 reb · 2 ast Score 55

CINBig

G M. Collins TR17.3 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94

F M. Mayock8.4 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.6 ast Score 36

CINBig

G T. Riley TR15 pts · 3.9 reb · 4.4 ast Score 92

F J. Iturbe10.4 pts · 4.6 reb · 2.2 ast Score 55

CINBig

F T. Tejada TR17.9 pts · 5.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 91

AmericanBetterCincinnati

AMER offense201st of 366 · -6.3

CINBig

CIN defense24th of 366 · +4.9

AMER defense122nd of 366 · -2.1

CINSmall

CIN offense49th of 366 · +3.7

Backcourt+1.4 · 2 players

CINBig

Backcourt+12.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt-1.4 · 3 players

CINBig

Frontcourt+4.0 · 1 player

Bench-2.4 · 5 players

CINBig

Bench+6.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestAMER betterCIN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

American

Guards

W. Nausadis23 minM. Collins22 minK. Sebastian22 minD. Hogans6 minJ. Anderson2 minM. Casey1 min

Forwards

G. Jones31 minM. Mayock29 minJ. Iturbe26 minC. McDonald18 minC. Eagan11 minN. JonesNew

Cincinnati

Guards

J. Campbell35 min · TRT. Carson33 min · TRM. Collins31 min · TRT. Riley28 min · TRM. Colvin27 min · TRA. Fleming26 min · TR

Forwards

T. Tejada36 min · TRR. Allenspach25 min · TRJ. Hastings23 min · TRA. Elamin20 min · TRD. VadenNewD. IwezeNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

AMER72.0 #242

CIN73.1 #221

Points per possession

AMER1.08 #190

CIN1.05 #243

Pace (possessions)

AMER66.7 #289

CIN69.4 #152

Shooting

Effective FG%

AMER51.5 #169

CIN50.5 #213

3-point %

AMER33.0 #235

CIN33.9 #175

3-point attempt rate

AMER46.5 #39

CIN43.8 #94

Free throw rate

AMER28.7 #335

CIN29.4 #323

Possessions

Turnover rate

AMER15.6 #110

CIN17.0 #203

Offensive rebound rate

AMER26.9 #299

CIN30.6 #174

Assists per game

AMER12.5 #248

CIN16.6 #35

Defense

Points allowed

AMER72.7 #124

CIN67.6 #27

Points allowed per possession

AMER1.09 #200

CIN0.97 #9

Opponent effective FG%

AMER54.4 #313

CIN47.4 #27

Opponent 3-point %

AMER35.5 #283

CIN31.0 #35

Turnovers forced

AMER19.2 #40

CIN18.2 #89

Defensive rebound rate

AMER70.6 #127

CIN72.7 #45

Steals per game

AMER7.3 #100

CIN6.3 #208

Blocks per game

AMER1.4 #363

CIN4.2 #53

AMER		CIN
Scoring
72.0 #242	Points per game	73.1 #221
1.08 #190	Points per possession	1.05 #243
66.7 #289	Pace (possessions)	69.4 #152
Shooting
51.5 #169	Effective FG%	50.5 #213
33.0 #235	3-point %	33.9 #175
46.5 #39	3-point attempt rate	43.8 #94
28.7 #335	Free throw rate	29.4 #323
Possessions
15.6 #110	Turnover rate	17.0 #203
26.9 #299	Offensive rebound rate	30.6 #174
12.5 #248	Assists per game	16.6 #35
Defense
72.7 #124	Points allowed	67.6 #27
1.09 #200	Points allowed per possession	0.97 #9
54.4 #313	Opponent effective FG%	47.4 #27
35.5 #283	Opponent 3-point %	31.0 #35
19.2 #40	Turnovers forced	18.2 #89
70.6 #127	Defensive rebound rate	72.7 #45
7.3 #100	Steals per game	6.3 #208
1.4 #363	Blocks per game	4.2 #53

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

American

14-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Boston U73–75
Lvs Boston U65–68
Lvs Lehigh73–78
W@ Lafayette75–61
W@ Bucknell75–57

A week or more of rest.

Cincinnati

18-15 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UCF65–66
Wvs Utah73–66
L@ TCU63–73
Wvs BYU90–68
Wvs Oklahoma St91–68

A week or more of rest.