Loyola Maryland Greyhounds at American University Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 31, 1:00 PM ETBender Arena · at American · Conference game

#314L-MDLoyola MD69final

Final

#153AMERAmerican84▲ winner

Closing lineAMER -8.5✓ AMER covered by 6.5

Closing total154.5Under by 1.5

Season records: Loyola MD and American
L-MD	This season	AMER
2-9	Record	5-6
5-6	ATS	6-5
7-4	O/U	9-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: L-MD 73–80 AMER · ✓ AMER (75%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
L-MD	36	33	69
AMER	44	40	84

1st half: L-MD 36, AMER 44 (AMER by 8). The model had AMER by 4.4 and a total of 71.6 (actual 80).

Team stats

L-MD		AMER
21-49 43%	Field goals	35-59 59%
9-23 39%	3-pointers	8-18 44%
18-21 86%	Free throws	6-9 67%
32 11 off	Rebounds	23 5 off
13	Assists	20
6	Steals	12
2	Blocks	2
19	Turnovers	9
15	Fouls	17
18	Points in paint	50
9	Fast-break points	8

Players

L-MD	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Braeden Speed G	33	13	4	3	1-5	0-2
Jordan Stiemke G	30	5	4	2	2-8	1-5
Emmett Adair F	26	11	5	1	5-12	0-4
Sam Springer F	21	6	1	0	2-2	2-2
Jacob Theodosiou G	20	11	2	2	4-5	1-2
Bench
Tyson Commander G	20	0	3	0	0-2	0-1
Carter Berg-McLean G	17	5	4	2	2-5	1-1
Jonas Sirtautas F	12	2	2	0	0-1	0-0
Troy Cicero Jr. G	11	10	2	2	3-5	2-3
Sebastien Emenalo F	7	3	3	1	1-3	1-2
Garrett Brennan G	1	3	0	0	1-1	1-1
Everett Barnes F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Ben Menker G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Peter Sposito, Goap Kodi

AMER	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Greg Jones F	29	17	5	4	7-12	1-3
Wyatt Nausadis G	27	5	1	5	1-5	1-3
Matt Mayock F	26	7	2	1	3-8	0-3
Geoff Sprouse G	23	7	1	3	3-5	1-2
Julen Iturbe F	21	12	7	4	5-6	2-2
Bench
Kade Sebastian G	29	11	1	0	4-6	2-3
Madden Collins G	21	15	1	2	7-11	1-2
Chris Eagan F	15	8	2	0	4-5	0-0
Luke Brown F	7	2	0	1	1-1	0-0
Jack Anderson G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Matthew Casey G	1	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Dean Hogans, Kamran Prince, Eric Michaels, Noah Jones, Carson McDonald, Shane O'Reilly, Gibraltar Coleman, Adrian Samuels

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	AMER -8.5	AMER -7.6	L-MD +0.9	L AMER covered
Total	154.5	152.9	Under 1.6	W Under
Projected score	—	L-MD 72.6 · AMER 80.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	AMER -4.4	AMER -8.0
1H total	71.6	80
1H projected score	L-MD 33.6 · AMER 38	L-MD 36 · AMER 44

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
L-MD WLLLW	5-6	45%	3-3	3-4
AMER WLWLL	6-5	55%	4-2	3-1

Venue/role: L-MD away, as underdog; AMER home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
L-MD OOOOO	7-4	64%	2-9
AMER OOOOU	9-2	82%	5-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
L-MD	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
AMER	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

L-MD 3–5 AMERAMER leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · AMER has won the last 2 meetings · L-MD 2-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 15, 2024-25	L-MD 51 @ AMER 72	AMER -4.5	AMER W
Jan 13, 2024-25	AMER 73 @ L-MD 54	L-MD -1.5	AMER W
Feb 7, 2023-24	L-MD 44 @ AMER 43	AMER -8.5	L-MD W
Jan 15, 2023-24	AMER 66 @ L-MD 52	L-MD +3.5	AMER W
Feb 25, 2022-23	AMER 77 @ L-MD 83	L-MD -1.5	L-MD W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Loyola MD

11 games played

Straight up

2-9

18% wins

Against the spread

5-6

45% covers · avg −3.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-4

64% overs · avg +7.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-918%

L L W L L L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-645%

L L W W W L W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-464%

U U U O O U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsTOW	L 56-67	+8.5	L −2.5	141.5	U 123
Nov 11	vsNJIT	L 64-66	-10.5	L −12.5	139.5	U 130
Nov 15	vsSTO	W 74-63	-6.5	W +4.5	138.5	U 137
Nov 16	@FAIR	L 82-85	+5.5	W +2.5	135.5	O 167
Nov 19	@DUQ	L 78-92	+14.5	W +0.5	150.5	O 170
Nov 21	@UK	L 46-88	+35.5	L −6.5	159.5	U 134
Nov 30	vsCOPP	W 95-84	-9.5	W +1.5	143.5	O 179
Dec 3	@HAMP	L 71-93	+6.5	L −15.5	142.5	O 164
Dec 9	@VMI	L 70-86	-2.5	L −18.5	151.5	O 156
Dec 13	vsMSM	L 73-81	+2.5	L −5.5	151.5	O 154
Dec 21	@GMU	L 79-86	+23.5	W +16.5	146.5	O 165

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOW

L 56-67

−2.5

NJIT

L 64-66

−12.5

STO

W 74-63

+4.5

FAIR

L 82-85

+2.5

DUQ

L 78-92

+0.5

L 46-88

−6.5

COPP

W 95-84

+1.5

HAMP

L 71-93

−15.5

VMI

L 70-86

−18.5

MSM

L 73-81

−5.5

GMU

L 79-86

+16.5

covered 5didn’t cover 6avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOW

L 56-67

−18.5

NJIT

L 64-66

−9.5

STO

W 74-63

−1.5

FAIR

L 82-85

+31.5

DUQ

L 78-92

+19.5

L 46-88

−25.5

COPP

W 95-84

+35.5

HAMP

L 71-93

+21.5

VMI

L 70-86

+4.5

MSM

L 73-81

+2.5

GMU

L 79-86

+18.5

over 7under 4avg +7.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

American

11 games played

Straight up

5-6

45% wins

Against the spread

6-5

55% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-2

82% overs · avg +8.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-645%

L W L L W L W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-555%

W W L W W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

9-282%

O O O O O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@WAKE	L 74-88	+19.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 162
Nov 9	vsPENN	W 84-78	+1.5	W +7.5	154.5	O 162
Nov 12	@GW	L 67-107	+17.5	L −22.5	151.5	O 174
Nov 18	@RUTG	L 71-80	+16.5	W +7.5	143.5	O 151
Nov 28	vsME	W 74-61	-7.5	W +5.5	133.5	O 135
Nov 29	vsSIE	L 55-59	+2.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 114
Nov 30	vsLONG	W 92-66	-5.5	W +20.5	148.5	O 158
Dec 3	vsDREX	W 75-73	-4.5	L −2.5	137.5	O 148
Dec 6	vsUMES	W 78-60	-10.5	W +7.5	130.5	O 138
Dec 18	@VCU	L 83-105	+19.5	L −2.5	154.5	O 188
Dec 22	@UVA	L 51-95	+27.5	L −16.5	153.5	U 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WAKE

L 74-88

+5.5

PENN

W 84-78

+7.5

L 67-107

−22.5

RUTG

L 71-80

+7.5

W 74-61

+5.5

SIE

L 55-59

−1.5

LONG

W 92-66

+20.5

DREX

W 75-73

−2.5

UMES

W 78-60

+7.5

VCU

L 83-105

−2.5

UVA

L 51-95

−16.5

covered 6didn’t cover 5avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WAKE

L 74-88

+22.5

PENN

W 84-78

+7.5

L 67-107

+22.5

RUTG

L 71-80

+7.5

W 74-61

+1.5

SIE

L 55-59

−23.5

LONG

W 92-66

+9.5

DREX

W 75-73

+10.5

UMES

W 78-60

+7.5

VCU

L 83-105

+33.5

UVA

L 51-95

−7.5

over 9under 2avg +8.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Loyola Maryland Greyhounds at American University Eagles

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Loyola MD

American

Loyola MD

American