Drexel Dragons at American University Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 3, 7:00 PM ETBender Arena · at American

#262DREXDrexel73final

Final

#153AMERAmerican75▲ winner

Closing lineAMER -4.5✓ DREX covered by 2.5

Closing total137.5Over by 10.5

Season records: Drexel and American
DREX	This season	AMER
3-4	Record	3-4
2-5	ATS	5-2
3-4	O/U	6-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: DREX 68–73 AMER · ✓ AMER (68%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
DREX	40	33	73
AMER	27	48	75

1st half: DREX 40, AMER 27 (DREX by 13). The model had AMER by 3.0 and a total of 65.9 (actual 67).

Team stats

DREX		AMER
29-58 50%	Field goals	24-58 41%
6-18 33%	3-pointers	9-26 35%
9-15 60%	Free throws	18-27 67%
38 9 off	Rebounds	35 10 off
12	Assists	10
5	Steals	8
6	Blocks	0
11	Turnovers	6
20	Fouls	15
46	Points in paint	26
7	Fast-break points	16

Players

DREX	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Shane Blakeney G	34	22	5	2	9-18	2-6
Kevon Vanderhorst G	29	13	2	3	6-11	0-4
Villiam Garcia Adsten G	28	3	11	1	1-4	1-2
Josh Reed G	15	0	0	1	0-5	0-0
Martin de LaPorterie F	11	4	1	0	2-4	0-0
Bench
Eli Beard G	26	11	3	3	4-8	1-3
Garfield Turner F	22	6	9	0	3-3	0-0
Dillon Tingler G	17	5	2	1	1-1	1-1
Victor Panov F	16	9	3	1	3-4	1-2
Ralph Akuta F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Moses Hipps, Clem Edomwonyin, Max Davis, Ignacio Campoy Galvez, Horace Simmons Jr.

AMER	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Greg Jones F	33	11	8	3	3-10	1-4
Matt Mayock F	30	15	3	1	5-9	3-4
Geoff Sprouse G	27	11	2	2	4-8	2-5
Julen Iturbe F	26	8	8	1	2-7	1-3
Wyatt Nausadis G	24	7	2	1	2-5	1-3
Bench
Kade Sebastian G	21	0	3	1	0-1	0-0
Madden Collins G	20	19	5	1	6-15	1-7
Chris Eagan F	11	4	0	0	2-3	0-0
Dean Hogans G	6	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Luke Brown F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Carson McDonald, Matthew Casey, Jack Anderson, Adrian Samuels, Gibraltar Coleman, Noah Jones, Eric Michaels, Shane O'Reilly, Kamran Prince

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	AMER -4.5	AMER -5.3	AMER +0.8	L DREX covered
Total	137.5	140.7	Over 3.2	W Over
Projected score	—	DREX 67.7 · AMER 73

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	AMER -3.0	DREX -13.0
1H total	65.9	67
1H projected score	DREX 31.4 · AMER 34.5	DREX 40 · AMER 27

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DREX LWLWL	2-5	29%	0-3	0-3
AMER LWWLW	5-2	71%	3-1	2-0

Venue/role: DREX away, as underdog; AMER home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DREX UUUOU	3-4	43%	3-4
AMER OOOUO	6-1	86%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DREXlast 7	3-4 43%	2-5 29%	3-4 43%
AMERlast 7	3-4 43%	5-2 71%	6-1 86%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Drexel

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

2-5

29% covers · avg −3.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −0.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

L L L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-529%

L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-443%

O O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@JOES	L 65-76	+9.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 141
Nov 11	@COLG	L 83-90	+3.5	L −3.5	143.5	O 173
Nov 15	vsSYR	L 50-80	+11.5	L −18.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 18	vsNJIT	W 75-43	-13.5	W +18.5	138.5	U 118
Nov 21	vsPENN	L 68-84	-4.5	L −20.5	152.5	U 152
Nov 23	vsODU	W 75-71	-3.5	W +0.5	142.5	O 146
Nov 25	@MORG	W 71-66	-5.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

JOES

L 65-76

−1.5

COLG

L 83-90

−3.5

SYR

L 50-80

−18.5

NJIT

W 75-43

+18.5

PENN

L 68-84

−20.5

ODU

W 75-71

+0.5

MORG

W 71-66

−0.5

covered 2didn’t cover 5avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

JOES

L 65-76

+1.5

COLG

L 83-90

+29.5

SYR

L 50-80

−13.5

NJIT

W 75-43

−20.5

PENN

L 68-84

−0.5

ODU

W 75-71

+3.5

MORG

W 71-66

−6.5

over 3under 4avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

American

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg +3.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-1

86% overs · avg +6.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

L W L L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-271%

W W L W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

6-186%

O O O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@WAKE	L 74-88	+19.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 162
Nov 9	vsPENN	W 84-78	+1.5	W +7.5	154.5	O 162
Nov 12	@GW	L 67-107	+17.5	L −22.5	151.5	O 174
Nov 18	@RUTG	L 71-80	+16.5	W +7.5	143.5	O 151
Nov 28	vsME	W 74-61	-7.5	W +5.5	133.5	O 135
Nov 29	vsSIE	L 55-59	+2.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 114
Nov 30	vsLONG	W 92-66	-5.5	W +20.5	148.5	O 158

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WAKE

L 74-88

+5.5

PENN

W 84-78

+7.5

L 67-107

−22.5

RUTG

L 71-80

+7.5

W 74-61

+5.5

SIE

L 55-59

−1.5

LONG

W 92-66

+20.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WAKE

L 74-88

+22.5

PENN

W 84-78

+7.5

L 67-107

+22.5

RUTG

L 71-80

+7.5

W 74-61

+1.5

SIE

L 55-59

−23.5

LONG

W 92-66

+9.5

over 6under 1avg +6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Drexel Dragons at American University Eagles

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Drexel

American

Drexel

American