Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns at Lamar Cardinals: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 3, 7:00 PM ETMontagne Center · at Lamar

Final

#293LAMLamar65▲ winner

Closing lineLAM -10.5✓ UL covered by 0.5

Closing total129.5Under by 9.5

Season records: Louisiana and Lamar
UL	This season	LAM
1-7	Record	2-2
2-6	ATS	3-1
2-6	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UL 60–71 LAM · ✓ LAM (83%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UL	29	26	55
LAM	27	38	65

1st half: UL 29, LAM 27 (UL by 2). The model had LAM by 6.4 and a total of 61.3 (actual 56).

Team stats

UL		LAM
20-48 42%	Field goals	24-53 45%
9-24 38%	3-pointers	2-7 29%
6-8 75%	Free throws	15-24 63%
29 7 off	Rebounds	34 12 off
15	Assists	14
4	Steals	9
4	Blocks	3
17	Turnovers	8
18	Fouls	13
20	Points in paint	38
3	Fast-break points	14

Players

UL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jaxon Olvera G	37	11	6	2	4-12	3-7
Mike Collins G	29	4	0	3	2-5	0-2
Joshua Lewis F	27	5	4	2	2-4	1-1
Dorian Finister G	26	9	6	1	3-9	2-7
Jeremiah Evans F	16	7	3	2	2-4	0-0
Bench
Dariyus Woodson F	21	9	2	1	3-7	1-4
Milan Mejia G	18	8	2	1	3-4	2-3
Todd Jones Jr. F	10	0	0	1	0-1	0-0
De'vion Lavergne G	9	0	3	2	0-0	0-0
Kyran Ratliff F	7	2	0	0	1-2	0-0

Did not play: Rahman Olajuwon, Logan Myers, Sean Elkinton, Michael Mouton, Christian Landry, Zeke Cook, Karris Bilal, Jamyron Keller

LAM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Cody Pennebaker G	33	10	2	3	5-6	0-0
Errol White F	32	4	9	0	1-5	0-0
Braden East F	31	24	12	2	9-17	0-0
Rob Lee Jr. G	30	10	1	5	4-10	1-1
Andrew Holifield F	26	13	5	2	4-7	1-3
Bench
King-Njhsanni Wilhite G	14	0	0	2	0-3	0-0
Eian Lowe G	9	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
B.B. Knight G	9	4	0	0	1-3	0-2
Jayden Gambrell G	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Janko Bulajic C	4	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Spencer Ezewiro F	4	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Jayden Barrs G	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Izuchukwu Emelife, Christian Thomas, Quinton Sanders

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	LAM -10.5	LAM -10.9	LAM +0.4	L UL covered
Total	129.5	130.8	Over 1.3	L Under
Projected score	—	UL 59.9 · LAM 70.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LAM -6.4	UL -2.0
1H total	61.3	56
1H projected score	UL 27.5 · LAM 33.9	UL 29 · LAM 27

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UL LLLLL	2-6	25%	0-5	1-5
LAM WWWL	3-1	75%	—	1-0

Venue/role: UL away, as underdog; LAM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UL OOUUU	2-6	25%	1-7
LAM UOUO	2-2	50%	2-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ULlast 8	1-7 13%	2-6 25%	2-6 25%
LAMlast 4	2-2 50%	3-1 75%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UL 0–1 LAMLAM leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · UL 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 14, 2024-25	LAM 74 @ UL 45	UL -3.5	LAM W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Louisiana

8 games played

Straight up

1-7

13% wins

Against the spread

2-6

25% covers · avg −7.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-6

25% overs · avg −7.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-713%

L W L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-625%

L W W L L L L L

5 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-625%

U U U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BALL	L 64-75	+4.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 139
Nov 7	vsSELA	W 58-52	-3.5	W +2.5	135.5	U 110
Nov 11	vsTULN	L 62-66	+5.5	W +1.5	135.5	U 128
Nov 14	@MCN	L 62-88	+15.5	L −10.5	134.5	O 150
Nov 18	@STAN	L 66-93	+20.5	L −6.5	139.5	O 159
Nov 21	@SCU	L 43-80	+19.5	L −17.5	140.5	U 123
Nov 24	@UCD	L 56-77	+9.5	L −11.5	136.5	U 133
Nov 28	vsJKST	L 45-51	-5.5	L −11.5	136.5	U 96

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BALL

L 64-75

−6.5

SELA

W 58-52

+2.5

TULN

L 62-66

+1.5

MCN

L 62-88

−10.5

STAN

L 66-93

−6.5

SCU

L 43-80

−17.5

UCD

L 56-77

−11.5

JKST

L 45-51

−11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 6avg −7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BALL

L 64-75

−2.5

SELA

W 58-52

−25.5

TULN

L 62-66

−7.5

MCN

L 62-88

+15.5

STAN

L 66-93

+19.5

SCU

L 43-80

−17.5

UCD

L 56-77

−3.5

JKST

L 45-51

−40.5

over 2under 6avg −7.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Lamar

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg −3.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-175%

W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 10	@TCU	L 65-78	+18.5	W +5.5	147.5	U 143
Nov 17	@ULM	W 79-66	-11.5	W +1.5	140.5	O 145
Nov 23	@MONT	W 68-63	+4.5	W +9.5	148.5	U 131
Nov 24	vsOAK	L 68-83	+3.5	L −11.5	148.5	O 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TCU

L 65-78

+5.5

ULM

W 79-66

+1.5

MONT

W 68-63

+9.5

OAK

L 68-83

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TCU

L 65-78

−4.5

ULM

W 79-66

+4.5

MONT

W 68-63

−17.5

OAK

L 68-83

+2.5

over 2under 2avg −3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns at Lamar Cardinals

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Louisiana

Lamar

Louisiana

Lamar