Longwood Lancers at American University Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 30, 4:00 PM ETBender Arena · at American

#218LONGLongwood66final

Final

#153AMERAmerican92▲ winner

Closing lineAMER -5.5✓ AMER covered by 20.5

Closing total148.5Over by 9.5

Season records: Longwood and American
LONG	This season	AMER
3-4	Record	2-4
1-6	ATS	4-2
4-3	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: LONG 75–77 AMER · ✓ AMER (59%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
LONG	34	32	66
AMER	40	52	92

1st half: LONG 34, AMER 40 (AMER by 6). The model had AMER by 1.5 and a total of 71.2 (actual 74).

Team stats

LONG		AMER
16-53 30%	Field goals	27-54 50%
2-17 12%	3-pointers	11-29 38%
32-42 76%	Free throws	27-30 90%
33 12 off	Rebounds	35 7 off
5	Assists	13
6	Steals	4
1	Blocks	1
10	Turnovers	12
23	Fouls	25
28	Points in paint	30
8	Fast-break points	15

Players

LONG	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Alphonzo Billups III G	28	8	5	1	2-7	1-4
Jacoi Hutchinson G	26	10	3	1	5-13	0-2
Emanuel Richards G	24	6	4	0	2-11	0-4
Elijah Kelly G	15	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Elijah Tucker F	12	10	3	1	1-1	0-0
Bench
Johan Nziemi F	27	12	6	0	2-5	0-0
Redd Thompson Jr. G	26	11	1	2	2-6	0-2
Jaylen Benard G	20	3	4	0	1-7	1-5
Jaylin Payne F	11	1	2	0	0-0	0-0
Jerome Williams G	7	0	0	0	0-2	0-0
Isaiah Kalala F	4	3	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Quadri Bashiru, Gerald Burr III, Elijah Jones, KJ McClurg

AMER	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Matt Mayock F	31	17	6	1	6-10	3-5
Greg Jones F	30	18	2	4	4-8	1-4
Geoff Sprouse G	27	16	3	3	4-9	3-7
Wyatt Nausadis G	24	7	3	1	3-6	1-4
Julen Iturbe F	20	6	4	0	3-6	0-1
Bench
Madden Collins G	24	11	8	1	4-7	2-5
Kade Sebastian G	21	9	2	2	1-4	1-3
Luke Brown F	11	2	2	1	0-1	0-0
Chris Eagan F	7	6	2	0	2-3	0-0
Dean Hogans G	3	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Jack Anderson G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Matthew Casey G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Carson McDonald, Shane O'Reilly, Eric Michaels, Kamran Prince, Noah Jones, Gibraltar Coleman, Adrian Samuels

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	AMER -5.5	AMER -2.7	LONG +2.8	L AMER covered
Total	148.5	152.0	Over 3.5	W Over
Projected score	—	LONG 74.6 · AMER 77.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	AMER -1.5	AMER -6.0
1H total	71.2	74
1H projected score	LONG 34.8 · AMER 36.3	LONG 34 · AMER 40

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LONG LLLLL	1-6	14%	0-2	1-3
AMER WLWWL	4-2	67%	2-1	1-0

Venue/role: LONG away, as underdog; AMER home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LONG OOOUU	4-3	57%	3-4
AMER OOOOU	5-1	83%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LONGlast 7	3-4 43%	1-6 14%	4-3 57%
AMERlast 6	2-4 33%	4-2 67%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

LONG 1–0 AMERLONG leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · LONG 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 19, 2021-22	AMER 42 @ LONG 82	LONG -2.5	LONG W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Longwood

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

1-6

14% covers · avg −6.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

L W W L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-614%

L W L L L L L

5 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@PITT	L 60-78	+14.5	L −3.5	145.5	U 138
Nov 12	vsJMU	W 82-72	+1.5	W +11.5	149.5	O 154
Nov 15	vsBING	W 90-82	-15.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 172
Nov 18	vsUMES	L 82-83	-17.5	L −18.5	138.5	O 165
Nov 23	@COLU	L 70-95	+3.5	L −21.5	153.5	O 165
Nov 28	vsSIE	L 63-70	+5.5	L −1.5	145.5	U 133
Nov 29	vsME	W 65-61	-5.5	L −1.5	138.5	U 126

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PITT

L 60-78

−3.5

JMU

W 82-72

+11.5

BING

W 90-82

−7.5

UMES

L 82-83

−18.5

COLU

L 70-95

−21.5

SIE

L 63-70

−1.5

W 65-61

−1.5

covered 1didn’t cover 6avg −6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PITT

L 60-78

−7.5

JMU

W 82-72

+4.5

BING

W 90-82

+24.5

UMES

L 82-83

+26.5

COLU

L 70-95

+11.5

SIE

L 63-70

−12.5

W 65-61

−12.5

over 4under 3avg +4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

American

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-267%

W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@WAKE	L 74-88	+19.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 162
Nov 9	vsPENN	W 84-78	+1.5	W +7.5	154.5	O 162
Nov 12	@GW	L 67-107	+17.5	L −22.5	151.5	O 174
Nov 18	@RUTG	L 71-80	+16.5	W +7.5	143.5	O 151
Nov 28	vsME	W 74-61	-7.5	W +5.5	133.5	O 135
Nov 29	vsSIE	L 55-59	+2.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 114

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WAKE

L 74-88

+5.5

PENN

W 84-78

+7.5

L 67-107

−22.5

RUTG

L 71-80

+7.5

W 74-61

+5.5

SIE

L 55-59

−1.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WAKE

L 74-88

+22.5

PENN

W 84-78

+7.5

L 67-107

+22.5

RUTG

L 71-80

+7.5

W 74-61

+1.5

SIE

L 55-59

−23.5

over 5under 1avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Longwood @ American

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Longwood

American

Longwood

American