American University Eagles at VCU Rams: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Dec 18, 7:00 PM ETSiegel Center · at VCU

#153AMERAmerican83final

Final

#61VCUVCU105▲ winner

Closing lineVCU -19.5✓ VCU covered by 2.5

Closing total154.5Over by 33.5

Season records: American and VCU
AMER	This season	VCU
5-4	Record	7-4
6-3	ATS	6-5
8-1	O/U	5-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: AMER 65–84 VCU · ✓ VCU (95%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
AMER	35	48	83
VCU	48	57	105

1st half: AMER 35, VCU 48 (VCU by 13). The model had VCU by 11.3 and a total of 69.4 (actual 83).

Team stats

AMER		VCU
25-62 40%	Field goals	38-67 57%
14-31 45%	3-pointers	12-27 44%
19-22 86%	Free throws	17-18 94%
26 11 off	Rebounds	43 15 off
13	Assists	21
5	Steals	8
2	Blocks	3
9	Turnovers	10
15	Fouls	18
20	Points in paint	48
8	Fast-break points	21

Players

AMER	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Greg Jones F	30	9	1	2	2-9	1-3
Kade Sebastian G	28	10	5	1	3-6	2-4
Geoff Sprouse G	27	16	1	5	5-9	5-9
Wyatt Nausadis G	26	17	1	0	5-9	3-5
Julen Iturbe F	20	15	4	3	5-8	3-5
Bench
Madden Collins G	22	10	4	1	3-14	0-4
Chris Eagan F	20	4	3	1	1-4	0-0
Dean Hogans G	16	2	2	0	1-2	0-1
Luke Brown F	9	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Matthew Casey G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Jack Anderson G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Carson McDonald, Adrian Samuels, Gibraltar Coleman, Eric Michaels, Shane O'Reilly, Kamran Prince, Matt Mayock, Noah Jones

VCU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nyk Lewis G	27	14	4	6	4-9	1-4
Jadrian Tracey G	23	12	2	2	4-7	4-5
Barry Evans F	23	6	4	2	3-4	0-0
Lazar Djokovic F	23	15	3	1	6-7	1-1
Brandon Jennings G	20	10	6	3	3-7	1-3
Bench
Terrence Hill Jr. G	24	17	5	3	6-13	3-8
Michael Belle F	20	7	8	3	3-5	1-1
Keyshawn Mitchell F	17	7	3	0	3-5	0-1
Jordan Tillery G	13	7	4	0	3-5	0-1
Ahmad Nowell G	8	8	1	1	2-4	1-3
Tyrell Ward G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Jordann Dumont F	1	2	1	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Christian Fermin, Obinnaya Okafor

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	VCU -19.5	VCU -19.0	AMER +0.5	L VCU covered
Total	154.5	148.3	Under 6.2	L Over
Projected score	—	AMER 64.6 · VCU 83.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	VCU -11.3	VCU -13.0
1H total	69.4	83
1H projected score	AMER 29.1 · VCU 40.3	AMER 35 · VCU 48

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AMER WLWLW	6-3	67%	2-1	3-2
VCU LWWLL	6-5	55%	3-3	5-3

Venue/role: AMER away, as underdog; VCU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
AMER OUOOO	8-1	89%	5-4
VCU OOUOU	5-6	45%	7-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AMERlast 9	5-4 56%	6-3 67%	8-1 89%
VCU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

American

9 games played

Straight up

5-4

56% wins

Against the spread

6-3

67% covers · avg +3.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-1

89% overs · avg +7.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-456%

L W L L W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-367%

W W L W W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

8-189%

O O O O O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@WAKE	L 74-88	+19.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 162
Nov 9	vsPENN	W 84-78	+1.5	W +7.5	154.5	O 162
Nov 12	@GW	L 67-107	+17.5	L −22.5	151.5	O 174
Nov 18	@RUTG	L 71-80	+16.5	W +7.5	143.5	O 151
Nov 28	vsME	W 74-61	-7.5	W +5.5	133.5	O 135
Nov 29	vsSIE	L 55-59	+2.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 114
Nov 30	vsLONG	W 92-66	-5.5	W +20.5	148.5	O 158
Dec 3	vsDREX	W 75-73	-4.5	L −2.5	137.5	O 148
Dec 6	vsUMES	W 78-60	-10.5	W +7.5	130.5	O 138

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WAKE

L 74-88

+5.5

PENN

W 84-78

+7.5

L 67-107

−22.5

RUTG

L 71-80

+7.5

W 74-61

+5.5

SIE

L 55-59

−1.5

LONG

W 92-66

+20.5

DREX

W 75-73

−2.5

UMES

W 78-60

+7.5

covered 6didn’t cover 3avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WAKE

L 74-88

+22.5

PENN

W 84-78

+7.5

L 67-107

+22.5

RUTG

L 71-80

+7.5

W 74-61

+1.5

SIE

L 55-59

−23.5

LONG

W 92-66

+9.5

DREX

W 75-73

+10.5

UMES

W 78-60

+7.5

over 8under 1avg +7.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

VCU

11 games played

Straight up

7-4

64% wins

Against the spread

6-5

55% covers · avg +2.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-6

45% overs · avg −0.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-464%

W L W L W W L W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-555%

W L L W W W L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-645%

O U U U O U O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWAG	W 103-74	-25.5	W +3.5	133.5	O 177
Nov 7	vsUSU	L 77-80	+2.5	L −0.5	163.5	U 157
Nov 12	vsSPU	W 78-61	-20.5	L −3.5	147.5	U 139
Nov 17	@NCSU	L 79-85	+11.5	W +5.5	164.5	U 164
Nov 22	vsCOPP	W 101-58	-32.5	W +10.5	151.5	O 159
Nov 26	vsUSF	W 78-66	-1.5	W +10.5	172.5	U 144
Nov 27	vsVAN	L 74-89	+6.5	L −8.5	161.5	O 163
Nov 28	vsVT	W 86-68	-2.5	W +15.5	153.5	O 154
Dec 5	vsSAM	W 83-57	-19.5	W +6.5	154.5	U 140
Dec 10	vsUNM	L 78-81	-8.5	L −11.5	157.5	O 159
Dec 15	vsNIA	W 84-58	-30.5	L −4.5	143.5	U 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WAG

W 103-74

+3.5

USU

L 77-80

−0.5

SPU

W 78-61

−3.5

NCSU

L 79-85

+5.5

COPP

W 101-58

+10.5

USF

W 78-66

+10.5

VAN

L 74-89

−8.5

W 86-68

+15.5

SAM

W 83-57

+6.5

UNM

L 78-81

−11.5

NIA

W 84-58

−4.5

covered 6didn’t cover 5avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WAG

W 103-74

+43.5

USU

L 77-80

−6.5

SPU

W 78-61

−8.5

NCSU

L 79-85

−0.5

COPP

W 101-58

+7.5

USF

W 78-66

−28.5

VAN

L 74-89

+1.5

W 86-68

+0.5

SAM

W 83-57

−14.5

UNM

L 78-81

+1.5

NIA

W 84-58

−1.5

over 5under 6avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

American University Eagles at VCU Rams

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

American

VCU

American

VCU