VCU Rams vs Vanderbilt Commodores: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 27, 12:00 PM ETImperial Arena · Neutral site

#61VCUVCU74final

Final

#22VANVanderbilt AP #2489▲ winner

Closing lineVAN -6.5✓ VAN covered by 8.5

Closing total161.5Over by 1.5

Season records: VCU and Vanderbilt
VCU	This season	VAN
4-2	Record	6-0
4-2	ATS	3-3
2-4	O/U	4-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: VCU 78–84 VAN · ✓ VAN (70%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
VCU	41	33	74
VAN	43	46	89

1st half: VCU 41, VAN 43 (VAN by 2). The model had VAN by 3.4 and a total of 75.6 (actual 84).

Team stats

VCU		VAN
20-56 36%	Field goals	27-51 53%
7-29 24%	3-pointers	11-22 50%
27-35 77%	Free throws	24-33 73%
29 9 off	Rebounds	43 10 off
8	Assists	18
7	Steals	11
2	Blocks	4
13	Turnovers	17
24	Fouls	28
26	Points in paint	28
3	Fast-break points	12

Players

VCU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jadrian Tracey G	30	15	2	1	4-14	2-8
Nyk Lewis G	29	16	1	2	4-11	2-7
Lazar Djokovic F	27	12	3	0	3-5	0-1
Brandon Jennings G	10	6	1	0	2-2	0-0
Barry Evans F	9	0	1	0	0-5	0-3
Bench
Michael Belle F	26	7	6	1	2-4	0-0
Ahmad Nowell G	25	6	3	0	2-5	2-3
Tyrell Ward G	15	1	2	1	0-3	0-2
Keyshawn Mitchell F	13	2	2	0	1-2	0-1
Terrence Hill Jr. G	12	9	2	2	2-5	1-4
Jordan Tillery G	4	0	0	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jordann Dumont, Christian Fermin, Obinnaya Okafor

VAN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tyler Nickel F	35	16	2	3	5-13	4-12
AK Okereke F	33	9	7	1	1-3	1-1
Tyler Tanner G	28	16	3	5	6-9	2-2
Duke Miles G	25	20	2	3	4-5	2-2
Devin McGlockton F	17	6	5	0	3-3	0-0
Bench
Jalen Washington F	19	11	8	4	5-5	1-1
Frankie Collins G	16	8	3	2	2-7	0-1
Tyler Harris F	13	3	3	0	1-4	1-3
Chandler Bing F	5	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Mason Nicholson C	4	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Jayden Leverett C	2	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Miles Keeffe G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Coleson Messer G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Mike James G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jaylon Dean-Vines, George Kimble III

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	VAN -6.5	VAN -5.9	VCU +0.6	L VAN covered
Total	161.5	161.5	—	Over
Projected score	—	VCU 77.8 · VAN 83.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	VAN -3.4	VAN -2.0
1H total	75.6	84
1H projected score	VCU 36.1 · VAN 39.5	VCU 41 · VAN 43

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
VCU LLWWW	4-2	67%	1-1	1-1
VAN WWLLL	3-3	50%	0-1	3-3

Venue/role: VCU neutral site, as underdog; VAN neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
VCU UUUOU	2-4	33%	4-2
VAN OUOOU	4-2	67%	6-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VCUlast 6	4-2 67%	4-2 67%	2-4 33%
VANlast 6	6-0 100%	3-3 50%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

VCU 2–0 VANVCU leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · VCU has won the last 2 meetings · VCU 2-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 30, 2022-23	VAN 65 @ VCU 70	VCU -1.5	VCU W
Nov 17, 2021-22	VCU 48 @ VAN 37	VAN -4.5	VCU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

VCU

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +4.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

W L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWAG	W 103-74	-25.5	W +3.5	133.5	O 177
Nov 7	vsUSU	L 77-80	+2.5	L −0.5	163.5	U 157
Nov 12	vsSPU	W 78-61	-20.5	L −3.5	147.5	U 139
Nov 17	@NCSU	L 79-85	+11.5	W +5.5	164.5	U 164
Nov 22	vsCOPP	W 101-58	-32.5	W +10.5	151.5	O 159
Nov 26	vsUSF	W 78-66	-1.5	W +10.5	172.5	U 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WAG

W 103-74

+3.5

USU

L 77-80

−0.5

SPU

W 78-61

−3.5

NCSU

L 79-85

+5.5

COPP

W 101-58

+10.5

USF

W 78-66

+10.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WAG

W 103-74

+43.5

USU

L 77-80

−6.5

SPU

W 78-61

−8.5

NCSU

L 79-85

−0.5

COPP

W 101-58

+7.5

USF

W 78-66

−28.5

over 2under 4avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Vanderbilt

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg +7.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

O O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsLIP	W 105-61	-26.5	W +17.5	154.5	O 166
Nov 8	@UCF	W 105-93	-10.5	W +1.5	166.5	O 198
Nov 12	vsEKU	W 92-62	-28.5	W +1.5	168.5	U 154
Nov 15	vsUAPB	W 104-75	-41.5	L −12.5	172.5	O 179
Nov 20	vsTXSO	W 109-74	-36.5	L −1.5	164.5	O 183
Nov 26	vsWKU	W 83-78	-18.5	L −13.5	168.5	U 161

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LIP

W 105-61

+17.5

UCF

W 105-93

+1.5

EKU

W 92-62

+1.5

UAPB

W 104-75

−12.5

TXSO

W 109-74

−1.5

WKU

W 83-78

−13.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LIP

W 105-61

+11.5

UCF

W 105-93

+31.5

EKU

W 92-62

−14.5

UAPB

W 104-75

+6.5

TXSO

W 109-74

+18.5

WKU

W 83-78

−7.5

over 4under 2avg +7.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

VCU Rams vs Vanderbilt Commodores

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

VCU

Vanderbilt

VCU

Vanderbilt