St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs East Carolina Pirates: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 27, 12:00 PM ETSuncoast Credit Union Arena · Neutral site

Final

Closing lineSBU -10.5✓ ECU covered by 1.5

Closing total144.5Under by 19.5

Season records: St Bonaventure and East Carolina
SBU	This season	ECU
5-1	Record	1-4
2-4	ATS	0-5
4-2	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SBU 78–70 ECU · ✓ SBU (75%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SBU	28	39	67
ECU	29	29	58

1st half: SBU 28, ECU 29 (ECU by 1). The model had SBU by 4.8 and a total of 69.5 (actual 57).

Team stats

SBU		ECU
24-59 41%	Field goals	16-55 29%
7-22 32%	3-pointers	5-16 31%
12-14 86%	Free throws	21-25 84%
39 9 off	Rebounds	40 13 off
13	Assists	7
7	Steals	8
6	Blocks	2
14	Turnovers	17
21	Fouls	16
26	Points in paint	18
22	Fast-break points	7

Players

SBU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Darryl Simmons II G	35	3	0	4	1-10	0-4
Frank Mitchell F	31	17	12	2	7-12	0-0
Dasonte Bowen G	30	10	1	3	2-4	0-2
Cayden Charles G	24	6	4	1	2-7	0-1
Joe Grahovac F	16	7	3	1	3-7	1-3
Bench
Daniel Egbuniwe F	25	17	3	0	6-8	5-6
Amar'e Marshall G	16	2	2	0	1-6	0-4
Ilia Ermakov G	11	3	3	1	1-1	1-1
Andrew Osasuyi F	5	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Xander Wedlow F	4	0	2	0	0-1	0-0
Achille Lonati G	3	2	1	1	1-3	0-1

Did not play: John Ikpotokin, Broek Ostrom, Jack DeRose, Brayden Jackson

ECU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jordan Riley G	39	28	4	1	9-17	4-6
Giovanni Emejuru C	37	6	11	1	2-8	0-0
Corey Caulker G	22	4	4	2	1-12	0-2
Reid Cason F	21	4	4	1	1-5	1-2
Tybo Bailey G	21	10	4	1	3-6	0-2
Bench
Patrick D'Arcy G	20	2	3	1	0-2	0-2
Isaiah Mbeng G	18	0	4	0	0-2	0-1
Eli DeLaurier C	17	4	1	0	0-3	0-1
Vito Perkovic F	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Luke Davis F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jake Baker, Grant Smith, Ladontae Felton, Daithi Quinn, Trevion LaBeaux, Jayshayne Woodard

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SBU -10.5	SBU -7.7	ECU +2.8	W ECU covered
Total	144.5	148.4	Over 3.9	L Under
Projected score	—	SBU 78.1 · ECU 70.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SBU -4.8	ECU -1.0
1H total	69.5	57
1H projected score	SBU 37.2 · ECU 32.3	SBU 28 · ECU 29

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
SBU LLLWL	2-4	33%	1-1	2-3
ECU LLLLL	0-5	0%	0-1	0-3

Venue/role: SBU neutral site, as favorite; ECU neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SBU OOOUO	4-2	67%	5-1
ECU OOUUO	3-2	60%	1-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SBUlast 6	5-1 83%	2-4 33%	4-2 67%
ECUlast 5	1-4 20%	0-5 0%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

St Bonaventure

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg +4.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-267%

U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBRAD	W 69-63	-1.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsCAN	W 89-70	-21.5	L −2.5	136.5	O 159
Nov 12	vsSIE	W 75-66	-9.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 141
Nov 15	vsYSU	W 84-80	-9.5	L −5.5	146.5	O 164
Nov 20	vsRMU	W 75-61	-11.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 25	vsUNC	L 70-85	+10.5	L −4.5	152.5	O 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BRAD

W 69-63

+4.5

CAN

W 89-70

−2.5

SIE

W 75-66

−0.5

YSU

W 84-80

−5.5

RMU

W 75-61

+2.5

UNC

L 70-85

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BRAD

W 69-63

−7.5

CAN

W 89-70

+22.5

SIE

W 75-66

+0.5

YSU

W 84-80

+17.5

RMU

W 75-61

−10.5

UNC

L 70-85

+2.5

over 4under 2avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

East Carolina

5 games played

Straight up

1-4

20% wins

Against the spread

0-5

0% covers · avg −13.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +6.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-420%

W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-50%

L L L L L

5 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsGASO	W 92-89	-5.5	L −2.5	151.5	O 181
Nov 8	@RICH	L 72-87	+5.5	L −9.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 18	@UNCW	L 60-85	+6.5	L −18.5	145.5	U 145
Nov 21	vsCHSO	L 65-77	-13.5	L −25.5	157.5	U 142
Nov 25	vsMSU	L 56-89	+19.5	L −13.5	140.5	O 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GASO

W 92-89

−2.5

RICH

L 72-87

−9.5

UNCW

L 60-85

−18.5

CHSO

L 65-77

−25.5

MSU

L 56-89

−13.5

covered 0didn’t cover 5avg −13.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GASO

W 92-89

+29.5

RICH

L 72-87

+15.5

UNCW

L 60-85

−0.5

CHSO

L 65-77

−15.5

MSU

L 56-89

+4.5

over 3under 2avg +6.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

St Bonaventure vs East Carolina

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

St Bonaventure

East Carolina

St Bonaventure

East Carolina