Loyola Maryland Greyhounds at Hampton Pirates: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 3, 7:00 PM ETConvocation Center (VA) · at Hampton

#314L-MDLoyola MD71final

Final

#159HAMPHampton93▲ winner

Closing lineHAMP -6.5✓ HAMP covered by 15.5

Closing total142.5Over by 21.5

Season records: Loyola MD and Hampton
L-MD	This season	HAMP
2-5	Record	2-5
4-3	ATS	4-3
3-4	O/U	2-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: L-MD 68–75 HAMP · ✓ HAMP (73%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
L-MD	27	44	71
HAMP	46	47	93

1st half: L-MD 27, HAMP 46 (HAMP by 19). The model had HAMP by 4.1 and a total of 67.4 (actual 73).

Team stats

L-MD		HAMP
23-57 40%	Field goals	29-50 58%
5-27 19%	3-pointers	10-17 59%
20-33 61%	Free throws	25-36 69%
32 14 off	Rebounds	32 8 off
9	Assists	20
5	Steals	8
5	Blocks	3
17	Turnovers	12
24	Fouls	25
34	Points in paint	30
14	Fast-break points	25

Players

L-MD	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Braeden Speed G	26	14	3	2	4-8	1-4
Jacob Theodosiou G	25	14	3	0	3-9	1-4
Jordan Stiemke G	25	16	2	0	5-11	1-6
Sam Springer F	20	4	2	0	2-6	0-4
Jonas Sirtautas F	14	4	1	1	2-2	0-0
Bench
Emmett Adair F	22	3	4	1	1-6	1-4
Tyson Commander G	20	7	2	2	3-3	1-1
Sebastien Emenalo F	14	0	1	1	0-2	0-1
Troy Cicero Jr. G	13	2	2	1	0-2	0-2
Carter Berg-McLean G	9	4	3	0	2-5	0-1
Everett Barnes F	9	3	2	1	1-1	0-0
Peter Sposito G	1	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Ben Menker G	1	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Garrett Brennan G	1	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Goap Kodi

HAMP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Xzavier Long F	31	9	7	1	3-4	0-1
Jalyke Gaines-Wyatt G	30	23	0	3	5-8	2-2
Daniel Johnson F	25	8	4	3	2-7	1-3
Michael Eley G	22	19	2	2	7-9	2-2
Josh Ogundele F	19	5	1	1	2-3	0-0
Bench
Etienne Strothers G	20	5	4	5	2-5	0-2
Christian Watson G	11	4	1	2	1-4	0-1
Eunique Rink F	11	2	3	0	1-1	0-0
Kody Williams G	10	9	0	2	3-3	3-3
Aidan Haskins G	7	3	2	1	1-2	1-2
Elijah Kennedy G	7	6	1	0	2-2	1-1
Kellan Lewis G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Quintin Cooper G	3	0	0	0	0-2	0-0
Hamza Asadallah G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Peter Oduro

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	HAMP -6.5	HAMP -7.0	HAMP +0.5	W HAMP covered
Total	142.5	143.9	Over 1.4	W Over
Projected score	—	L-MD 68.4 · HAMP 75.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	HAMP -4.1	HAMP -19.0
1H total	67.4	73
1H projected score	L-MD 31.7 · HAMP 35.7	L-MD 27 · HAMP 46

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
L-MD WWWLW	4-3	57%	2-1	2-2
HAMP WLWWL	4-3	57%	—	0-2

Venue/role: L-MD away, as underdog; HAMP home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
L-MD UOOUO	3-4	43%	2-5
HAMP UUUUO	2-5	29%	2-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
L-MDlast 7	2-5 29%	4-3 57%	3-4 43%
HAMPlast 7	2-5 29%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

L-MD 1–2 HAMPHAMP leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · HAMP has won the last 2 meetings · L-MD 1-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 21, 2024-25	HAMP 76 @ L-MD 68	L-MD -1.5	HAMP W
Dec 7, 2022-23	L-MD 61 @ HAMP 66	HAMP +1.5	HAMP W
Dec 12, 2021-22	HAMP 54 @ L-MD 67	L-MD -8.5	L-MD W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Loyola MD

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg +4.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

L L W L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

L L W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-443%

U U U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsTOW	L 56-67	+8.5	L −2.5	141.5	U 123
Nov 11	vsNJIT	L 64-66	-10.5	L −12.5	139.5	U 130
Nov 15	vsSTO	W 74-63	-6.5	W +4.5	138.5	U 137
Nov 16	@FAIR	L 82-85	+5.5	W +2.5	135.5	O 167
Nov 19	@DUQ	L 78-92	+14.5	W +0.5	150.5	O 170
Nov 21	@UK	L 46-88	+35.5	L −6.5	159.5	U 134
Nov 30	vsCOPP	W 95-84	-9.5	W +1.5	143.5	O 179

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOW

L 56-67

−2.5

NJIT

L 64-66

−12.5

STO

W 74-63

+4.5

FAIR

L 82-85

+2.5

DUQ

L 78-92

+0.5

L 46-88

−6.5

COPP

W 95-84

+1.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOW

L 56-67

−18.5

NJIT

L 64-66

−9.5

STO

W 74-63

−1.5

FAIR

L 82-85

+31.5

DUQ

L 78-92

+19.5

L 46-88

−25.5

COPP

W 95-84

+35.5

over 3under 4avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hampton

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

L L W L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-529%

O U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MILW	L 86-90	+5.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 176
Nov 11	@UVA	L 53-91	+24.5	L −13.5	148.5	U 144
Nov 14	@BRWN	W 72-63	+1.5	W +10.5	139.5	U 135
Nov 16	vsHC	L 61-67	-4.5	L −10.5	148.5	U 128
Nov 18	@BC	L 52-63	+12.5	W +1.5	135.5	U 115
Nov 21	@NORF	L 60-62	+2.5	W +0.5	133.5	U 122
Nov 25	@UMES	W 74-68	-6.5	L −0.5	124.5	O 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MILW

L 86-90

+1.5

UVA

L 53-91

−13.5

BRWN

W 72-63

+10.5

L 61-67

−10.5

L 52-63

+1.5

NORF

L 60-62

+0.5

UMES

W 74-68

−0.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MILW

L 86-90

+29.5

UVA

L 53-91

−4.5

BRWN

W 72-63

−4.5

L 61-67

−20.5

L 52-63

−20.5

NORF

L 60-62

−11.5

UMES

W 74-68

+17.5

over 2under 5avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Loyola Maryland Greyhounds at Hampton Pirates

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Loyola MD

Hampton

Loyola MD

Hampton