Houston Cougars at Cincinnati Bearcats: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 3, 2:00 PM ETFifth Third Arena · at Cincinnati · Conference game

#2HOUHouston AP #867▲ winner

Final

Closing lineHOU -4.5✓ HOU covered by 2.5

Closing total135.5Under by 8.5

Season records: Houston and Cincinnati
HOU	This season	CIN
12-1	Record	8-5
6-7	ATS	5-8
7-6	O/U	4-9

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: HOU 70–62 CIN · ✓ HOU (76%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
HOU	28	39	67
CIN	33	27	60

1st half: HOU 28, CIN 33 (CIN by 5). The model had HOU by 5.0 and a total of 62.0 (actual 61).

Team stats

HOU		CIN
26-63 41%	Field goals	21-49 43%
8-25 32%	3-pointers	6-20 30%
7-9 78%	Free throws	12-16 75%
34 12 off	Rebounds	30 7 off
11	Assists	12
9	Steals	2
3	Blocks	3
8	Turnovers	15
16	Fouls	13
28	Points in paint	28
8	Fast-break points	4

Players

HOU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kingston Flemings G	38	19	3	6	7-18	2-5
Milos Uzan G	32	18	3	2	7-14	4-7
Emanuel Sharp G	28	2	3	2	0-9	0-5
Joseph Tugler F	26	8	7	1	4-5	0-0
Chris Cenac Jr. F	24	4	8	0	2-6	0-3
Bench
Isiah Harwell G	16	2	4	0	1-3	0-1
Ramon Walker Jr. G	14	5	2	0	1-3	1-3
Kalifa Sakho F	12	6	1	0	3-3	0-0
Mercy Miller G	6	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Chase McCarty F	4	3	0	0	1-1	1-1

Did not play: Cedric Lath, Bryce Jackson, Jacob McFarland, Kordel Jefferson

CIN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jizzle James G	36	4	4	4	1-7	0-3
Day Day Thomas G	32	15	2	4	4-10	2-5
Baba Miller F	32	11	8	3	4-7	0-2
Moustapha Thiam C	28	13	5	0	6-7	1-1
Sencire Harris G	18	2	4	1	1-7	0-2
Bench
Jalen Celestine G	26	6	3	0	2-5	2-4
Halvine Dzellat C	12	6	1	0	2-2	0-0
Shon Abaev F	9	0	0	0	0-3	0-2
Kerr Kriisa G	7	3	0	0	1-1	1-1

Did not play: Grant Darbyshire, Tyler McKinley, Keyshuan Tillery, Jalen Haynes, Bryson Buckingham, Lucas Atauri, Jordi Rodriguez-Stegemeijer

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	HOU -4.5	HOU -8.1	HOU +3.6	W HOU covered
Total	135.5	132.3	Under 3.2	W Under
Projected score	—	HOU 70.2 · CIN 62.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	HOU -5.0	CIN -5.0
1H total	62.0	61
1H projected score	HOU 33.5 · CIN 28.5	HOU 28 · CIN 33

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU WWWWL	6-7	46%	—	6-7
CIN LLWWW	5-8	38%	4-5	1-2

Venue/role: HOU away, as favorite; CIN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU OUOOU	7-6	54%	12-1
CIN OUUUO	4-9	31%	8-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
CIN	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22

HOU 9–0 CINHOU leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · HOU has won the last 9 meetings · HOU 4-3-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 1, 2024-25	CIN 64 @ HOU 73	HOU -13.5	CIN W
Feb 27, 2023-24	CIN 59 @ HOU 67	HOU -13.5	CIN W
Feb 10, 2023-24	HOU 67 @ CIN 62	CIN +5	P
Mar 11, 2022-23	CIN 48 vs HOU 69	HOU -9.5	HOU W
Jan 28, 2022-23	CIN 69 @ HOU 75	HOU -14.5	CIN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Houston

13 games played

Straight up

12-1

92% wins

Against the spread

6-7

46% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-6

54% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-192%

W W W W W W L W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-746%

L L W L W L L L W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-654%

U U U O O O O U O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsLEH	W 75-57	-36.5	L −18.5	136.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsTOW	W 65-48	-26.5	L −9.5	130.5	U 113
Nov 12	vsOAK	W 78-45	-30.5	W +2.5	138.5	U 123
Nov 16	vsAUB	W 73-72	-7.5	L −6.5	140.5	O 145
Nov 20	vsRID	W 91-45	-40.5	W +5.5	134.5	O 136
Nov 24	vsSYR	W 78-74	-14.5	L −10.5	140.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsTENN	L 73-76	-2.5	L −5.5	136.5	O 149
Nov 26	vsND	W 66-56	-11.5	L −1.5	132.5	U 122
Dec 6	vsFSU	W 82-67	-12.5	W +2.5	148.5	O 149
Dec 10	vsJKST	W 80-38	-40.5	W +1.5	137.5	U 118
Dec 13	vsNOLA	W 99-57	-32.5	W +9.5	138.5	O 156
Dec 20	vsARK	W 94-85	-5.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 179
Dec 29	vsMTSU	W 69-60	-25.5	L −16.5	138.5	U 129

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LEH

W 75-57

−18.5

TOW

W 65-48

−9.5

OAK

W 78-45

+2.5

AUB

W 73-72

−6.5

RID

W 91-45

+5.5

SYR

W 78-74

−10.5

TENN

L 73-76

−5.5

W 66-56

−1.5

FSU

W 82-67

+2.5

JKST

W 80-38

+1.5

NOLA

W 99-57

+9.5

ARK

W 94-85

+3.5

MTSU

W 69-60

−16.5

covered 6didn’t cover 7avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LEH

W 75-57

−4.5

TOW

W 65-48

−17.5

OAK

W 78-45

−15.5

AUB

W 73-72

+4.5

RID

W 91-45

+1.5

SYR

W 78-74

+11.5

TENN

L 73-76

+12.5

W 66-56

−10.5

FSU

W 82-67

+0.5

JKST

W 80-38

−19.5

NOLA

W 99-57

+17.5

ARK

W 94-85

+32.5

MTSU

W 69-60

−9.5

over 7under 6avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Cincinnati

13 games played

Straight up

8-5

62% wins

Against the spread

5-8

38% covers · avg −3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-9

31% overs · avg −6.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-562%

W W W W L W L W L L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-838%

W L W L L L L L L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-931%

O U U U U O U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWCU	W 94-63	-22.5	W +8.5	143.5	O 157
Nov 7	vsGAST	W 74-64	-29.5	L −19.5	151.5	U 138
Nov 11	vsDAY	W 74-62	-5.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 136
Nov 16	vsMSM	W 72-55	-25.5	L −8.5	145.5	U 127
Nov 21	vsLOU	L 64-74	+8.5	L −1.5	163.5	U 138
Nov 24	vsNJIT	W 94-67	-34.5	L −7.5	141.5	O 161
Nov 26	vsEMU	L 56-64	-22.5	L −30.5	146.5	U 120
Dec 1	vsTAR	W 76-58	-24.5	L −6.5	142.5	U 134
Dec 5	@XAV	L 74-79	-1.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 153
Dec 13	vsUGA	L 65-84	+5.5	L −13.5	157.5	U 149
Dec 17	vsALST	W 88-51	-21.5	W +15.5	145.5	U 139
Dec 21	vsCLEM	L 65-68	+3.5	W +0.5	140.5	U 133
Dec 29	vsLIP	W 89-62	-13.5	W +13.5	150.5	O 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WCU

W 94-63

+8.5

GAST

W 74-64

−19.5

DAY

W 74-62

+6.5

MSM

W 72-55

−8.5

LOU

L 64-74

−1.5

NJIT

W 94-67

−7.5

EMU

L 56-64

−30.5

TAR

W 76-58

−6.5

XAV

L 74-79

−6.5

UGA

L 65-84

−13.5

ALST

W 88-51

+15.5

CLEM

L 65-68

+0.5

LIP

W 89-62

+13.5

covered 5didn’t cover 8avg −3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WCU

W 94-63

+13.5

GAST

W 74-64

−13.5

DAY

W 74-62

−11.5

MSM

W 72-55

−18.5

LOU

L 64-74

−25.5

NJIT

W 94-67

+19.5

EMU

L 56-64

−26.5

TAR

W 76-58

−8.5

XAV

L 74-79

+5.5

UGA

L 65-84

−8.5

ALST

W 88-51

−6.5

CLEM

L 65-68

−7.5

LIP

W 89-62

+0.5

over 4under 9avg −6.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Houston Cougars at Cincinnati Bearcats

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Houston

Cincinnati

Houston

Cincinnati