Fertitta Center · at Houston
Closing line
HOU -25.5✓ MTSU covered by 16.5
HOU -25.5✓ MTSU covered by 16.5Closing total138.5Under by 9.5
 MTSU | This season | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 4-4 | Record | 11-1 |
| 4-4 | ATS | 6-6 |
| 3-5 | O/U | 7-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MTSU 57–81 HOU · ✓ HOU (98%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MTSU | 28 | 32 | 60 |
| HOU | 33 | 36 | 69 |
1st half: MTSU 28, HOU 33 (HOU by 5). The model had HOU by 14.6 and a total of 64.7 (actual 61).
Team stats
| MTSU | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 23-49 47% | Field goals | 24-59 41% |
| 11-28 39% | 3-pointers | 6-20 30% |
| 3-6 50% | Free throws | 15-17 88% |
| 33 11 off | Rebounds | 31 14 off |
| 13 | Assists | 8 |
| 3 | Steals | 8 |
| 3 | Blocks | 2 |
| 19 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 21 | Fouls | 11 |
| 22 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 0 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| MTSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Loofe F | 33 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 4-6 | 2-3 |
| Kamari Lands G | 32 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 7-10 | 4-7 |
| Torey Alston F | 30 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Jahvin Carter G | 30 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1-6 | 0-3 |
| Sean Smith G | 23 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 3-9 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Alec Oglesby G | 26 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 4-10 | 4-9 |
| Tre Green G | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Marcus Whitlock Jr. G | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Luka Jovanovic C | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jarred Hall, James Dent Jr., Charvez Ambrose, Jax Howard, Brandon Oloumou, Savon Wykle
| HOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kingston Flemings G | 38 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 5-14 | 1-5 |
| Milos Uzan G | 32 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2-8 | 1-5 |
| Chris Cenac Jr. F | 29 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3-7 | 1-1 |
| Joseph Tugler F | 26 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 6-9 | 0-0 |
| Emanuel Sharp G | 20 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 3-6 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ramon Walker Jr. G | 19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Isiah Harwell G | 17 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-2 |
| Mercy Miller G | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 4-6 | 1-2 |
| Chase McCarty F | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Cedric Lath C | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Bryce Jackson, Kordel Jefferson, Jacob McFarland, Kalifa Sakho
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenHOU -25.5
no move
CloseHOU -25.5
No change since the open
Total
Open138.5
no move
Close138.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
MTSU +2200 · HOU -8000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened HOU -25.5 · unchangedmodel HOU -24.5
model HOU -24.5
Opened 138.5 · unchangedmodel 138
model 138
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | HOU -25.5 | HOU -24.5 | MTSU +1.0 | W MTSU covered |
| Total | 138.5 | 138.0 | Under 0.5 | W Under |
| Projected score | — | MTSU 56.8 · HOU 81.2 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | HOU -14.6 | HOU -5.0 |
| 1H total | 64.7 | 61 |
| 1H projected score | MTSU 25.1 · HOU 39.6 | MTSU 28 · HOU 33 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MTSUlast 8 | 4-4 50% | 4-4 50% | 3-5 38% |
| HOU | 9-1 90% | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
MTSU
8 games played
Straight up
4-4
50% wins
Against the spread
4-4
50% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-5
38% overs · avg −5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 | @ EVAN | W 77-72 | +2.5 | W +7.5 | 140.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 19 | @ MICH | L 61-86 | +27.5 | W +2.5 | 159.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 23 | vs MUR | W 90-87 | +6.5 | W +9.5 | 161.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 24 | vs GW | L 79-92 | +9.5 | L −3.5 | 158.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 25 | vs MCN | L 62-72 | +9.5 | L −0.5 | 147.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 1 | vs UAB | W 76-61 | +1.5 | W +16.5 | 153.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 7 | vs BEL | L 62-83 | +3.5 | L −17.5 | 153.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 17 | vs KENN | W 68-67 | -3.5 | L −2.5 | 160.5 | U 135 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
12
@EVAN
EVANW 77-72
+7.5
19
@MICH
MICHL 61-86
+2.5
23
vsMUR
MURW 90-87
+9.5
24
vsGW
GWL 79-92
−3.5
25
vsMCN
MCNL 62-72
−0.5
1
vsUAB
UABW 76-61
+16.5
7
vsBEL
BELL 62-83
−17.5
17
vsKENN
KENNW 68-67
−2.5
covered 4didn’t cover 4avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
12
@EVAN
EVANW 77-72
+8.5
19
@MICH
MICHL 61-86
−12.5
23
vsMUR
MURW 90-87
+15.5
24
vsGW
GWL 79-92
+12.5
25
vsMCN
MCNL 62-72
−13.5
1
vsUAB
UABW 76-61
−16.5
7
vsBEL
BELL 62-83
−8.5
17
vsKENN
KENNW 68-67
−25.5
over 3under 5avg −5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Houston
12 games played
Straight up
11-1
92% wins
Against the spread
6-6
50% covers · avg −2.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-5
58% overs · avg +1.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs LEH | W 75-57 | -36.5 | L −18.5 | 136.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 8 | vs TOW | W 65-48 | -26.5 | L −9.5 | 130.5 | U 113 |
| Nov 12 | vs OAK | W 78-45 | -30.5 | W +2.5 | 138.5 | U 123 |
| Nov 16 | vs AUB | W 73-72 | -7.5 | L −6.5 | 140.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 20 | vs RID | W 91-45 | -40.5 | W +5.5 | 134.5 | O 136 |
| Nov 24 | vs SYR | W 78-74 | -14.5 | L −10.5 | 140.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 25 | vs TENN | L 73-76 | -2.5 | L −5.5 | 136.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 26 | vs ND | W 66-56 | -11.5 | L −1.5 | 132.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 6 | vs FSU | W 82-67 | -12.5 | W +2.5 | 148.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 10 | vs JKST | W 80-38 | -40.5 | W +1.5 | 137.5 | U 118 |
| Dec 13 | vs NOLA | W 99-57 | -32.5 | W +9.5 | 138.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 20 | vs ARK | W 94-85 | -5.5 | W +3.5 | 146.5 | O 179 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsLEH
LEHW 75-57
−18.5
8
vsTOW
TOWW 65-48
−9.5
12
vsOAK
OAKW 78-45
+2.5
16
vsAUB
AUBW 73-72
−6.5
20
vsRID
RIDW 91-45
+5.5
24
vsSYR
SYRW 78-74
−10.5
25
vsTENN
TENNL 73-76
−5.5
26
vsND
NDW 66-56
−1.5
6
vsFSU
FSUW 82-67
+2.5
10
vsJKST
JKSTW 80-38
+1.5
13
vsNOLA
NOLAW 99-57
+9.5
20
vsARK
ARKW 94-85
+3.5
covered 6didn’t cover 6avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsLEH
LEHW 75-57
−4.5
8
vsTOW
TOWW 65-48
−17.5
12
vsOAK
OAKW 78-45
−15.5
16
vsAUB
AUBW 73-72
+4.5
20
vsRID
RIDW 91-45
+1.5
24
vsSYR
SYRW 78-74
+11.5
25
vsTENN
TENNL 73-76
+12.5
26
vsND
NDW 66-56
−10.5
6
vsFSU
FSUW 82-67
+0.5
10
vsJKST
JKSTW 80-38
−19.5
13
vsNOLA
NOLAW 99-57
+17.5
20
vsARK
ARKW 94-85
+32.5
over 7under 5avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
MTSU
4-4 overall · 1-0 in conference · Conference USA
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Kennesaw St68–67
- Lvs Belmont62–83
- Wvs UAB76–61
- Lvs McNeese62–72
- Lvs G Washington79–92
A week or more of rest.
Houston
11-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Arkansas94–85
- Wvs LSU N Orleans99–57
- Wvs Jackson St80–38
- Wvs Florida St82–67
- Wvs Notre Dame66–56
A week or more of rest.