Kennesaw State Owls at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 17, 7:30 PM ETMurphy Center · at MTSU · Conference game

Final

#154MTSUMTSU68▲ winner

Closing lineMTSU -3.5✓ KENN covered by 2.5

Closing total160.5Under by 25.5

Season records: Kennesaw St and MTSU
KENN	This season	MTSU
5-2	Record	3-4
4-3	ATS	4-3
6-1	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: KENN 81–85 MTSU · ✓ MTSU (63%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
KENN	31	36	67
MTSU	40	28	68

1st half: KENN 31, MTSU 40 (MTSU by 9). The model had MTSU by 2.1 and a total of 77.4 (actual 71).

Team stats

KENN		MTSU
23-63 37%	Field goals	19-56 34%
3-20 15%	3-pointers	6-22 27%
18-22 82%	Free throws	24-32 75%
44 18 off	Rebounds	39 15 off
8	Assists	10
7	Steals	7
7	Blocks	11
13	Turnovers	14
21	Fouls	20
40	Points in paint	18
5	Fast-break points	12

Players

KENN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Braedan Lue F	35	20	4	2	6-13	0-2
Simeon Cottle G	26	12	1	2	3-14	1-7
Kaden Rickard G	20	3	6	1	1-4	0-1
Amir Taylor F	19	6	4	0	3-7	0-1
Ramone Seals F	18	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Bench
Frankquon Sherman F	26	11	15	0	4-7	1-1
RJ Johnson G	24	8	1	2	3-8	0-2
Trey Simpson F	20	5	4	1	2-5	1-4
Darius Washington III G	12	2	2	0	1-4	0-1

Did not play: Brendan Tousignaut, Nigel Thomas, Dozie Onyirimba, Jamil Miller, Jaden Harris, Davin Cosby Jr., Perry Smith Jr., Eric Holland, Charles Stone, Chase Clemmons

MTSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kamari Lands G	35	24	9	1	8-18	2-7
Jahvin Carter G	32	10	2	1	4-11	2-4
Tre Green G	27	8	2	1	2-10	1-7
Torey Alston F	27	10	9	1	1-5	0-0
Chris Loofe F	22	6	5	0	1-3	1-3
Bench
Sean Smith G	25	6	1	4	2-8	0-1
Luka Jovanovic C	18	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
Alec Oglesby G	14	2	2	2	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Charvez Ambrose, Jax Howard, Brandon Oloumou, Savon Wykle, James Dent Jr., Marcus Whitlock Jr., Jarred Hall

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MTSU -3.5	MTSU -3.7	MTSU +0.2	L KENN covered
Total	160.5	165.4	Over 4.9	L Under
Projected score	—	KENN 80.8 · MTSU 84.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MTSU -2.1	MTSU -9.0
1H total	77.4	71
1H projected score	KENN 37.6 · MTSU 39.7	KENN 31 · MTSU 40

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KENN WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-0	1-1
MTSU WLLWL	4-3	57%	1-1	—

Venue/role: KENN away, as underdog; MTSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
KENN OOOOO	6-1	86%	5-2
MTSU OOUUU	3-4	43%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KENNlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	6-1 86%
MTSUlast 7	3-4 43%	4-3 57%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

KENN 0–2 MTSUMTSU leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · MTSU has won the last 2 meetings · KENN 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 8, 2024-25	MTSU 76 @ KENN 75	KENN -2.5	MTSU W
Jan 9, 2024-25	KENN 79 @ MTSU 84	MTSU -9.5	KENN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kennesaw St

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg −1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-1

86% overs · avg +12.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W L W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

6-186%

U O O O O O O

6 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@FAMU	W 92-72	-11.5	W +8.5	166.5	U 164
Nov 16	vsUSF	L 89-108	+7.5	L −11.5	177.5	O 197
Nov 24	vsRICE	W 89-84	-4.5	W +0.5	159.5	O 173
Nov 25	vsORU	L 83-91	-8.5	L −16.5	166.5	O 174
Nov 26	@FGCU	W 102-100	+1.5	W +3.5	160.5	O 202
Dec 2	vsJKST	W 88-73	-15.5	L −0.5	157.5	O 161
Dec 6	vsGAST	W 92-69	-14.5	W +8.5	158.5	O 161

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FAMU

W 92-72

+8.5

USF

L 89-108

−11.5

RICE

W 89-84

+0.5

ORU

L 83-91

−16.5

FGCU

W 102-100

+3.5

JKST

W 88-73

−0.5

GAST

W 92-69

+8.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FAMU

W 92-72

−2.5

USF

L 89-108

+19.5

RICE

W 89-84

+13.5

ORU

L 83-91

+7.5

FGCU

W 102-100

+41.5

JKST

W 88-73

+3.5

GAST

W 92-69

+2.5

over 6under 1avg +12.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

MTSU

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +2.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-443%

O U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 12	@EVAN	W 77-72	+2.5	W +7.5	140.5	O 149
Nov 19	@MICH	L 61-86	+27.5	W +2.5	159.5	U 147
Nov 23	vsMUR	W 90-87	+6.5	W +9.5	161.5	O 177
Nov 24	vsGW	L 79-92	+9.5	L −3.5	158.5	O 171
Nov 25	vsMCN	L 62-72	+9.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 134
Dec 1	vsUAB	W 76-61	+1.5	W +16.5	153.5	U 137
Dec 7	vsBEL	L 62-83	+3.5	L −17.5	153.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EVAN

W 77-72

+7.5

MICH

L 61-86

+2.5

MUR

W 90-87

+9.5

L 79-92

−3.5

MCN

L 62-72

−0.5

UAB

W 76-61

+16.5

BEL

L 62-83

−17.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EVAN

W 77-72

+8.5

MICH

L 61-86

−12.5

MUR

W 90-87

+15.5

L 79-92

+12.5

MCN

L 62-72

−13.5

UAB

W 76-61

−16.5

BEL

L 62-83

−8.5

over 3under 4avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Kennesaw State Owls at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Kennesaw St

MTSU

Kennesaw St

MTSU