Georgia State Panthers at Kennesaw State Owls: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 6, 3:00 PM ETVyStar Arena · at Kennesaw St

#208GASTGeorgia St69final

Final

#148KENNKennesaw St92▲ winner

Closing lineKENN -14.5✓ KENN covered by 8.5

Closing total158.5Over by 2.5

Season records: Georgia St and Kennesaw St
GAST	This season	KENN
0-8	Record	4-2
2-6	ATS	3-3
1-7	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: GAST 75–88 KENN · ✓ KENN (88%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
GAST	28	41	69
KENN	43	49	92

1st half: GAST 28, KENN 43 (KENN by 15). The model had KENN by 7.8 and a total of 76.1 (actual 71).

Team stats

GAST		KENN
19-70 27%	Field goals	32-61 52%
6-30 20%	3-pointers	10-22 45%
25-33 76%	Free throws	18-29 62%
38 14 off	Rebounds	50 9 off
5	Assists	16
13	Steals	5
1	Blocks	4
12	Turnovers	19
23	Fouls	28
24	Points in paint	38
2	Fast-break points	9

Players

GAST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Micah Tucker G	32	12	2	0	4-12	0-5
Anthony Enoh F	26	8	8	2	1-3	0-0
Jakai Newton G	18	5	5	0	1-6	0-2
Joah Chappelle F	17	0	2	0	0-5	0-0
Jelani Hamilton G	16	7	0	0	2-7	1-1
Bench
Malachi Brown G	26	15	3	2	4-13	1-7
Ayouba Berthe G	24	8	7	0	2-12	2-9
Trey Scott F	21	2	2	0	1-4	0-2
Chris Jones G	15	9	2	1	3-6	1-3
Christian Beam C	3	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Isaiah Sherrard F	2	3	0	0	1-1	1-1

Did not play: James Cooper, Clash Peters, Kwame Tanic, Manos Koveos

KENN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Amir Taylor F	32	18	12	2	7-10	1-2
Braedan Lue F	24	15	6	3	7-11	1-3
Ramone Seals F	19	12	6	0	3-6	1-3
Kaden Rickard G	19	12	0	3	3-3	2-2
Simeon Cottle G	14	7	0	4	3-6	1-1
Bench
Trey Simpson F	26	7	9	0	3-6	1-3
RJ Johnson G	24	5	4	1	2-6	1-2
Darius Washington III G	20	13	6	3	4-6	2-3
Frankquon Sherman F	13	2	5	0	0-4	0-1
Jaden Harris G	8	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Eric Holland G	1	1	0	0	0-2	0-2

Did not play: Dozie Onyirimba, Charles Stone, Nigel Thomas, Chase Clemmons, Perry Smith Jr., Brendan Tousignaut, Davin Cosby Jr., Jamil Miller

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	KENN -14.5	KENN -13.3	GAST +1.3	L KENN covered
Total	158.5	162.7	Over 4.2	W Over
Projected score	—	GAST 74.7 · KENN 88

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	KENN -7.8	KENN -15.0
1H total	76.1	71
1H projected score	GAST 34.1 · KENN 42	GAST 28 · KENN 43

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GAST WLLLL	2-6	25%	2-3	2-5
KENN LWLWL	3-3	50%	0-2	2-2

Venue/role: GAST away, as underdog; KENN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
GAST UOUUU	1-7	13%	0-8
KENN OOOOO	5-1	83%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GASTlast 8	0-8 0%	2-6 25%	1-7 13%
KENNlast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

GAST 0–2 KENNKENN leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · KENN has won the last 2 meetings · GAST 0-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 6, 2024-25	KENN 81 @ GAST 77	GAST -2.5	KENN W
Dec 2, 2023-24	GAST 77 @ KENN 88	KENN -2.5	KENN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Georgia St

8 games played

Straight up

0-8

0% wins

Against the spread

2-6

25% covers · avg −6.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-7

13% overs · avg −8.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-80%

L L L L L L L L

8 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-625%

L W L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-713%

U U U U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@EMU	L 49-71	+3.5	L −18.5	149.5	U 120
Nov 7	@CIN	L 64-74	+29.5	W +19.5	151.5	U 138
Nov 10	vsPRES	L 61-63	-3.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 124
Nov 17	@ASU	L 62-75	+18.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 137
Nov 21	@SDST	L 58-105	+12.5	L −34.5	143.5	O 163
Nov 25	vsSAM	L 63-78	+5.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 141
Nov 26	vsNMSU	L 58-77	+12.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 135
Dec 2	@MER	L 67-78	+10.5	L −0.5	155.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EMU

L 49-71

−18.5

CIN

L 64-74

+19.5

PRES

L 61-63

−5.5

ASU

L 62-75

+5.5

SDST

L 58-105

−34.5

SAM

L 63-78

−9.5

NMSU

L 58-77

−6.5

MER

L 67-78

−0.5

covered 2didn’t cover 6avg −6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EMU

L 49-71

−29.5

CIN

L 64-74

−13.5

PRES

L 61-63

−17.5

ASU

L 62-75

−8.5

SDST

L 58-105

+19.5

SAM

L 63-78

−5.5

NMSU

L 58-77

−1.5

MER

L 67-78

−10.5

over 1under 7avg −8.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kennesaw St

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +13.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@FAMU	W 92-72	-11.5	W +8.5	166.5	U 164
Nov 16	vsUSF	L 89-108	+7.5	L −11.5	177.5	O 197
Nov 24	vsRICE	W 89-84	-4.5	W +0.5	159.5	O 173
Nov 25	vsORU	L 83-91	-8.5	L −16.5	166.5	O 174
Nov 26	@FGCU	W 102-100	+1.5	W +3.5	160.5	O 202
Dec 2	vsJKST	W 88-73	-15.5	L −0.5	157.5	O 161

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FAMU

W 92-72

+8.5

USF

L 89-108

−11.5

RICE

W 89-84

+0.5

ORU

L 83-91

−16.5

FGCU

W 102-100

+3.5

JKST

W 88-73

−0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FAMU

W 92-72

−2.5

USF

L 89-108

+19.5

RICE

W 89-84

+13.5

ORU

L 83-91

+7.5

FGCU

W 102-100

+41.5

JKST

W 88-73

+3.5

over 5under 1avg +13.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Georgia State Panthers at Kennesaw State Owls

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Georgia St

Kennesaw St

Georgia St

Kennesaw St