Belmont Bruins at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 7, 4:30 PM ETMurphy Center · at MTSU

#138BELBelmont83▲ winner

Final

#154MTSUMTSU62final

Closing lineBEL -3.5✓ BEL covered by 17.5

Closing total153.5Under by 8.5

Season records: Belmont and MTSU
BEL	This season	MTSU
7-1	Record	3-3
5-3	ATS	4-2
3-5	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: BEL 77–78 MTSU · ✗ MTSU (52%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
BEL	35	48	83
MTSU	31	31	62

1st half: BEL 35, MTSU 31 (BEL by 4). The model had MTSU by 0.2 and a total of 72.3 (actual 66).

Team stats

BEL		MTSU
34-65 52%	Field goals	21-67 31%
10-23 43%	3-pointers	8-38 21%
5-13 38%	Free throws	12-16 75%
43 9 off	Rebounds	40 12 off
21	Assists	10
5	Steals	5
1	Blocks	3
8	Turnovers	8
15	Fouls	13
38	Points in paint	16
4	Fast-break points	9

Players

BEL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nic McClain G	34	20	4	4	8-14	3-6
Tyler Lundblade G	31	15	3	6	6-10	3-6
Jabez Jenkins G	28	9	8	3	4-8	1-3
Drew Scharnowski F	24	12	4	2	4-6	0-0
Sam Orme F	18	7	6	2	3-6	1-3
Bench
Brigham Rogers F	19	10	7	1	5-9	0-0
Win Miller G	13	0	1	3	0-1	0-0
Eoin Dillon F	9	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Jack Smiley G	9	7	1	0	3-7	1-3
Isaiah West G	7	3	3	0	1-2	1-1
Keith Robbins G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Graydon Lemke F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Jake Dykstra G	2	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Cooper Haynes G	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Aidan Noyes

MTSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jahvin Carter G	30	11	2	1	4-12	3-11
Torey Alston F	27	14	8	1	3-7	0-1
Kamari Lands G	26	3	4	2	1-8	0-3
Chris Loofe F	26	8	10	0	3-4	1-2
Tre Green G	25	8	2	0	2-10	2-9
Bench
Alec Oglesby G	26	8	1	0	3-9	2-6
Sean Smith G	23	10	3	5	5-15	0-4
Luka Jovanovic C	12	0	6	1	0-0	0-0
Marcus Whitlock Jr. G	3	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Jarred Hall F	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: James Dent Jr., Charvez Ambrose, Jax Howard, Brandon Oloumou, Savon Wykle

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BEL -3.5	MTSU -0.5	MTSU +4.0	L BEL covered
Total	153.5	154.4	Over 0.9	L Under
Projected score	—	BEL 77 · MTSU 77.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MTSU -0.2	BEL -4.0
1H total	72.3	66
1H projected score	BEL 36.1 · MTSU 36.2	BEL 35 · MTSU 31

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BEL LWWWL	5-3	63%	2-0	5-3
MTSU WWLLW	4-2	67%	1-0	4-2

Venue/role: BEL away, as favorite; MTSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BEL UUUOO	3-5	38%	7-1
MTSU UOOUU	3-3	50%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BELlast 8	7-1 88%	5-3 63%	3-5 38%
MTSUlast 6	3-3 50%	4-2 67%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

BEL 2–1 MTSUBEL leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · BEL has won the last 2 meetings · BEL 1-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 7, 2024-25	MTSU 79 @ BEL 82	BEL -3.5	MTSU W
Dec 9, 2023-24	BEL 75 @ MTSU 65	MTSU -1.5	BEL W
Dec 10, 2022-23	MTSU 85 @ BEL 75	BEL -1.5	MTSU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Belmont

8 games played

Straight up

7-1

88% wins

Against the spread

5-3

63% covers · avg +4.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-5

38% overs · avg −3.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-188%

W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-363%

W L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-538%

U O U U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsAF	W 79-63	-15.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 142
Nov 8	vsTNST	W 87-79	-13.5	L −5.5	158.5	O 166
Nov 15	@ORU	W 83-60	-7.5	W +15.5	171.5	U 143
Nov 19	vsLIP	W 75-68	-12.5	L −5.5	158.5	U 143
Nov 24	vsSFPA	W 94-57	-21.5	W +15.5	157.5	U 151
Nov 26	vsTOL	W 87-72	-4.5	W +10.5	163.5	U 159
Nov 30	@COFC	W 96-73	-2.5	W +20.5	152.5	O 169
Dec 3	vsRICH	L 76-84	-6.5	L −14.5	156.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 79-63

+0.5

TNST

W 87-79

−5.5

ORU

W 83-60

+15.5

LIP

W 75-68

−5.5

SFPA

W 94-57

+15.5

TOL

W 87-72

+10.5

COFC

W 96-73

+20.5

RICH

L 76-84

−14.5

covered 5didn’t cover 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 79-63

−2.5

TNST

W 87-79

+7.5

ORU

W 83-60

−28.5

LIP

W 75-68

−15.5

SFPA

W 94-57

−6.5

TOL

W 87-72

−4.5

COFC

W 96-73

+16.5

RICH

L 76-84

+3.5

over 3under 5avg −3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

MTSU

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +5.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-267%

W W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 12	@EVAN	W 77-72	+2.5	W +7.5	140.5	O 149
Nov 19	@MICH	L 61-86	+27.5	W +2.5	159.5	U 147
Nov 23	vsMUR	W 90-87	+6.5	W +9.5	161.5	O 177
Nov 24	vsGW	L 79-92	+9.5	L −3.5	158.5	O 171
Nov 25	vsMCN	L 62-72	+9.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 134
Dec 1	vsUAB	W 76-61	+1.5	W +16.5	153.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EVAN

W 77-72

+7.5

MICH

L 61-86

+2.5

MUR

W 90-87

+9.5

L 79-92

−3.5

MCN

L 62-72

−0.5

UAB

W 76-61

+16.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EVAN

W 77-72

+8.5

MICH

L 61-86

−12.5

MUR

W 90-87

+15.5

L 79-92

+12.5

MCN

L 62-72

−13.5

UAB

W 76-61

−16.5

over 3under 3avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Belmont Bruins at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Belmont

MTSU

Belmont

MTSU