Crisler Center · at Michigan
Closing line
MICH -27.5✓ MTSU covered by 2.5
MICH -27.5✓ MTSU covered by 2.5Closing total159.5Under by 12.5
 MTSU | This season | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 3-0 |
| 1-0 | ATS | 1-2 |
| 1-0 | O/U | 2-1 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MTSU 68–93 MICH · ✓ MICH (99%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MTSU | 30 | 31 | 61 |
| MICH | 36 | 50 | 86 |
1st half: MTSU 30, MICH 36 (MICH by 6). The model had MICH by 15.1 and a total of 75.1 (actual 66).
Team stats
| MTSU | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| 21-69 30% | Field goals | 31-67 46% |
| 10-37 27% | 3-pointers | 5-25 20% |
| 9-12 75% | Free throws | 19-26 73% |
| 40 13 off | Rebounds | 48 12 off |
| 8 | Assists | 14 |
| 6 | Steals | 6 |
| 4 | Blocks | 3 |
| 15 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 24 | Fouls | 13 |
| 12 | Points in paint | 50 |
| 0 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| MTSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamari Lands G | 30 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4-12 | 3-10 |
| Torey Alston F | 23 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Sean Smith G | 21 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 3-8 | 1-1 |
| Chris Loofe F | 21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2-12 | 1-5 |
| Tre Green G | 19 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2-8 | 1-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jahvin Carter G | 27 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 5-14 | 1-6 |
| Alec Oglesby G | 25 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2-6 | 2-5 |
| James Dent Jr. G | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Jarred Hall F | 11 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Luka Jovanovic C | 8 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Marcus Whitlock Jr. G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Charvez Ambrose, Jax Howard, Brandon Oloumou, Savon Wykle
| MICH | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaxel Lendeborg F | 28 | 25 | 12 | 3 | 9-12 | 2-5 |
| Morez Johnson Jr. F | 26 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Elliot Cadeau G | 21 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 3-6 | 1-3 |
| Nimari Burnett G | 21 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2-6 | 0-3 |
| Will Tschetter F | 15 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| L.J. Cason G | 21 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 4-8 | 0-2 |
| Trey McKenney G | 21 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1-10 | 1-7 |
| Aday Mara C | 20 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 5-9 | 0-1 |
| Roddy Gayle Jr. G | 17 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Winters Grady G | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Oscar Goodman F | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Malick Kordel C | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Charlie May G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Howard Eisley Jr., Harrison Hochberg, Ricky Liburd
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMICH -27.5
ModelMICH -25.3
Model edgeMTSU +2.2
W MTSU covered
Total
Market159.5
Model160.3
Model edgeOver 0.8
L Under
Projected score
MTSU 67.5 · MICH 92.8
MTSU 61 · MICH 86
Win probability
MICH 99%
1st half
Spread
MICH -15.1
MICH -6.0
Total
75.1
66 points
Projected score
MTSU 30 · MICH 45.1
MTSU 30 · MICH 36
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMICH -25.5
2 → MICH
CloseMICH -27.5
2 pts toward MICH
Total
Open153.5
▲ 6
Close159.5
Up 6 since the open
Moneyline
MTSU +4000 · MICH -100000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MICH -25.5 · closed MICH -27.5 · moved 2 toward MICHmodel MICH -25.5
model MICH -25.5
Opened 153.5 · closed 159.5 · moved 6 upmodel 160.5
model 160.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MTSUlast 1 | 1-0 100% | 1-0 100% | 1-0 100% |
| MICHlast 3 | 3-0 100% | 1-2 33% | 2-1 67% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
MTSU
1 game played
Straight up
1-0
100% wins
Against the spread
1-0
100% covers · avg +7.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-0
100% overs · avg +8.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 | @ EVAN | W 77-72 | +2.5 | W +7.5 | 140.5 | O 149 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
12
@EVAN
EVANW 77-72
+7.5
covered 1didn’t cover 0avg +7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
12
@EVAN
EVANW 77-72
+8.5
over 1under 0avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Michigan
3 games played
Straight up
3-0
100% wins
Against the spread
1-2
33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-1
67% overs · avg +2.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
OAK
OAKW 121-78
+18.5
11
vs
WAKE
WAKEW 85-84
−14.5
14
@
TCU
TCUW 67-63
−3.5
covered 1didn’t cover 2avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsOAK
OAKW 121-78
+42.5
11
vsWAKE
WAKEW 85-84
+0.5
14
@TCU
TCUW 67-63
−34.5
over 2under 1avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
MTSU
1-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Conference USA
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Evansville77–72
A week or more of rest.
Michigan
3-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ TCU67–63
- Wvs Wake Forest85–84
- Wvs Oakland121–78
5 days since their last game.