Sanford Pentagon · Neutral site
#132MURMurray St
vs
#245TNSTTennessee St
LineMUR -10.5moved 2 toward MUR
Total165.5up 4 from 161.5
Season records: Murray St and Tennessee St
MURThis seasonTNST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MUR 82–75 · win probability MUR 74%
Pick this game
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Spread
Total
Winner
Line
MUR -10.5
moved 2 toward MUR
Total
165.5
model 157.3 · Under by 8
Model edge
TNST by 3.5
model vs market
Public on the spread
75% TNST
72% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MUR has more of the edges

MUR 3, TNST 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
MUR has played the 165th-hardest schedule, TNST the 345th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MURBig
MUR offense vs TNST defense
Offense 110th of 366 against a defense 290th, on the model’s ratings
MURBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: MUR 38.6, TNST 33.4. Allowed: MUR 32.2, TNST 41.4
TNSTSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MUR 16.4%, TNST 16.7%. Forced: MUR 15.7%, TNST 19.8%
MURSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: MUR 53.8 and allows 52.4; TNST 50.0 and allows 51.6
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MUR 32.6%, TNST 34.8%. Defensive: MUR 68.7%, TNST 69.4%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MUR 28%, TNST 10%. Transfers in: MUR 4, TNST 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Three-pointers
MUR hits 35.0% and allows 36.2%; TNST hits 33.3% and allows 34.0%. Threes are 44.8% and 30.7% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: MUR plays 72.3 a game (30th fastest), TNST 71.1 (66th). Faster games mean more points
Even
TNST offense vs MUR defense
Offense 207th of 366 against a defense 197th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Neutral-site favorites of 10 to 14.523784%53%43%
Non-conference games at this spread98888%50%51%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite676375%50%51%
Games with a total of 165 to 169.531274%46%46%

Market

Open → current
Spread
2 pts toward MUR
Total
Up 4 since the open
Moneyline
MUR -600 · TNST +425
Line movement
Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened MUR -8.5 · now MUR -10.5 · moved 2 toward MURmodel MUR -7
Opened 161.5 · now 165.5 · moved 4 upmodel 157.5
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
MUR -10.5SpreadTNST +10.5
Bets
Money
Over 165.5TotalUnder 165.5
Bets
Money
MURWinnerTNST
Bets
Money
Money is 13 pts ahead of bets on TNST

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
MURTNSTOverUnderMURTNST
BetMGMMGM+10.5-110-10.5-110165.5-105165.5-115-600+425
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag+10.5-110-10.5-110165-110165-110——
BetRiversBetRivers+10.5-106-10.5-118166.5-113166.5-110-530+375
BetUSBetUS+10.5-110-10.5-110165-110165-110-600+450
BovadaBovada+10.5-110-10.5-110165-110165-110——
DraftKingsDK+10.5-108-10.5-112165.5-108165.5-112-575+425
FanDuelFD+10.5-110-10.5-110165.5-108165.5-112-610+440
LowVig.agLowVig.ag+10.5-106-10.5-106165-108165-108——

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadMUR -10.5MUR -7.2TNST +3.3
Total165.5157.3Under 8.2
Projected score—MUR 82.3 · TNST 75

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadMUR -4.4—
1H total73.5—
1H projected scoreMUR 39 · TNST 34.5—

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Murray St 2, Tennessee St 2, even 1
Murray StBetterTennessee St
G C. Jones TR10 pts · 3 reb · 3.1 ast Score 61
TNSTSmall
G T. Johnson TR15 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 85
G R. Domon14.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 95
MURBig
G A. Morris TR11.1 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.7 ast Score 30
G M. Courbon4.6 pts · 2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 31
Even
G C. Alston TR4.5 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.3 ast Score 42
F S. Tupuola TR6.3 pts · 5.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 55
TNSTSmall
F A. Bradshaw TR8.6 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 79
F B. Rogers TR6.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 67
MURSmall
F J. Rivera TR3.3 pts · 2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 47
Murray StBetterTennessee St
MUR offense110th of 366 · -1.8
MURBig
TNST defense290th of 366 · -7.3
MUR defense197th of 366 · -4.8
Even
TNST offense207th of 366 · -6.3
Backcourt+2.2 · 3 players
MURSmall
Backcourt-0.4 · 3 players
Frontcourt+0.4 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt+1.0 · 2 players
Bench-1.0 · 2 players
MURSmall
Bench-2.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMUR betterTNST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Murray St
Guards
C. Jones26 min · TRR. Domon25 minM. Courbon16 minB. Shorter15 minK. Magwood11 min · TRB. ShtolzbergNew
Forwards
S. Tupuola25 min · TRB. Rogers18 min · TRP. NikolicNewJ. BoulefaaNew
Tennessee St
Guards
T. Johnson29 min · TRA. Morris28 min · TRC. Alston11 min · TRD. Howard8 minI. Stewart4 min · TRJ. Jones3 min
Forwards
A. Bradshaw19 min · TRJ. Rivera12 min · TRK. Jones11 minD. LindseyNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MURTNST
Scoring
83.1 #26Points per game77.9 #96
1.15 #56Points per possession1.10 #146
72.3 #30Pace (possessions)71.1 #66
Shooting
53.8 #70Effective FG%50.0 #237
35.0 #1203-point %33.3 #211
44.8 #723-point attempt rate30.7 #344
38.6 #86Free throw rate33.4 #228
Possessions
16.4 #160Turnover rate16.7 #177
32.6 #100Offensive rebound rate34.8 #53
13.7 #165Assists per game12.7 #237
Defense
80.2 #323Points allowed75.1 #191
1.11 #233Points allowed per possession1.06 #97
52.4 #236Opponent effective FG%51.6 #190
36.2 #310Opponent 3-point %34.0 #183
15.7 #234Turnovers forced19.8 #26
68.7 #214Defensive rebound rate69.4 #184
5.9 #248Steals per game9.0 #10
4.1 #69Blocks per game3.8 #99

Murray St

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Nevada75–89
  • Lvs UIC79–92
  • L@ Bradley78–87
  • Wvs Evansville88–75
  • L@ Illinois St61–78

A week or more of rest.

Tennessee St

20-10 in 2025-26 overall · 17-5 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Iowa State74–108
  • Wvs Morehead St93–67
  • Wvs UT Martin68–55
  • W@ UT Martin67–42
  • W@ SE Missouri79–71

A week or more of rest.