Sanford Pentagon · Neutral site
Line
MUR -10.5moved 2 toward MUR
Total165.5up 4 from 161.5
| This season | TNST | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | ATS | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | O/U | 0-0 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects MUR 82–75 · win probability MUR 74%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
MUR -10.5
moved 2 toward MUR
Total
165.5
model 157.3 · Under by 8
Model edge
TNST by 3.5
model vs market
Public on the spread
75% TNST
72% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: MUR has more of the edges
MUR 3, TNST 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
MUR has played the 165th-hardest schedule, TNST the 345th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MUR offense vs TNST defense
Offense 110th of 366 against a defense 290th, on the model’s ratings
Free throws
Free throw rate: MUR 38.6, TNST 33.4. Allowed: MUR 32.2, TNST 41.4
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MUR 16.4%, TNST 16.7%. Forced: MUR 15.7%, TNST 19.8%
Shooting
Effective FG%: MUR 53.8 and allows 52.4; TNST 50.0 and allows 51.6
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MUR 32.6%, TNST 34.8%. Defensive: MUR 68.7%, TNST 69.4%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MUR 28%, TNST 10%. Transfers in: MUR 4, TNST 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Three-pointers
MUR hits 35.0% and allows 36.2%; TNST hits 33.3% and allows 34.0%. Threes are 44.8% and 30.7% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: MUR plays 72.3 a game (30th fastest), TNST 71.1 (66th). Faster games mean more points
Even
TNST offense vs MUR defense
Offense 207th of 366 against a defense 197th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
How games like this went
Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
| Situation | Games | Favorite won | Favorite covered | Went over |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral-site favorites of 10 to 14.5 | 237 | 84% | 53% | 43% |
| Non-conference games at this spread | 988 | 88% | 50% | 51% |
| Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite | 6763 | 75% | 50% | 51% |
| Games with a total of 165 to 169.5 | 312 | 74% | 46% | 46% |
Market
Open → current
Spread
OpenMUR -8.5
2 → MUR
NowMUR -10.5
2 pts toward MUR
Total
Open161.5
▲ 4
Now165.5
Up 4 since the open
Moneyline
MUR -600 · TNST +425
Line movement
Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened MUR -8.5 · now MUR -10.5 · moved 2 toward MURmodel MUR -7
model MUR -7
Opened 161.5 · now 165.5 · moved 4 upmodel 157.5
model 157.5
Openline modelNow
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Public betting
Share of bets and of money
Bets
Money
Over 165.5TotalUnder 165.5
Bets
Money
Bets
Money
Money is 13 pts ahead of bets on TNST
Books
8 sportsbooks · current prices
| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MUR | TNST | Over | Under | MUR | TNST | |
| BetMGMMGM | +10.5-110 | -10.5-110 | 165.5-105 | 165.5-115 | -600 | +425 |
| BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag | +10.5-110 | -10.5-110 | 165-110 | 165-110 | — | — |
| BetRiversBetRivers | +10.5-106 | -10.5-118 | 166.5-113 | 166.5-110 | -530 | +375 |
| BetUSBetUS | +10.5-110 | -10.5-110 | 165-110 | 165-110 | -600 | +450 |
| BovadaBovada | +10.5-110 | -10.5-110 | 165-110 | 165-110 | — | — |
| DraftKingsDK | +10.5-108 | -10.5-112 | 165.5-108 | 165.5-112 | -575 | +425 |
| FanDuelFD | +10.5-110 | -10.5-110 | 165.5-108 | 165.5-112 | -610 | +440 |
| LowVig.agLowVig.ag | +10.5-106 | -10.5-106 | 165-108 | 165-108 | — | — |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | MUR -10.5 | MUR -7.2 | TNST +3.3 |
| Total | 165.5 | 157.3 | Under 8.2 |
| Projected score | — | MUR 82.3 · TNST 75 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | MUR -4.4 | — |
| 1H total | 73.5 | — |
| 1H projected score | MUR 39 · TNST 34.5 | — |
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Last 10 games
2025-26
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4-6 40% | 2-8 20% | 6-4 60% | |
| 8-2 80% | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
MUR 2–0 TNSTMUR leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · MUR has won the last 2 meetings · MUR 1-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2021-22 | MUR 73 @ TNST 62 | TNST +14.5 | TNST W |
| Jan 13, 2021-22 | TNST 44 @ MUR 67 | MUR -20 | MUR W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Murray St
33 games played
Straight up
20-13
61% wins
Against the spread
14-19
42% covers · avg −2.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
19-14
58% overs · avg +4.9 pts vs the total
Against the spread
14-1942%
8 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs | W 85-77 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 153.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 7 | vs | W 108-60 | -38.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 11 | @ | L 91-102 | +10.5 | L −0.5 | 164.5 | O 193 |
| Nov 15 | vs | W 99-79 | -14.5 | W +5.5 | 157.5 | O 178 |
| Nov 18 | vs | W 89-68 | -13.5 | W +7.5 | 153.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 23 | vs | L 87-90 | -6.5 | L −9.5 | 161.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 24 | vs | L 60-73 | +2.5 | L −10.5 | 158.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 25 | vs | W 96-95 | +7.5 | W +8.5 | 167.5 | O 191 |
| Dec 2 | vs | W 84-52 | -16.5 | W +15.5 | 158.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 6 | vs | W 81-68 | -16.5 | L −3.5 | 157.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 13 | vs | W 115-100 | +4.5 | W +19.5 | 168.5 | O 215 |
| Dec 18 | vs | W 81-72 | -7.5 | W +1.5 | 156.5 | U 153 |
| Dec 21 | @ | W 85-79 | -5.5 | W +0.5 | 155.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 29 | vs | W 84-81 | -6.5 | L −3.5 | 165.5 | U 165 |
| Jan 1 | @ | W 81-77 | -5.5 | L −1.5 | 159.5 | U 158 |
| Jan 4 | vs | W 86-66 | -5.5 | W +14.5 | 162.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 7 | @ | W 79-69 | -8.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 10 | vs | W 92-79 | -12.5 | W +0.5 | 152.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 17 | vs | W 85-81 | -11.5 | L −7.5 | 167.5 | U 166 |
| Jan 21 | @ | L 90-101 | -4.5 | L −15.5 | 156.5 | O 191 |
| Jan 24 | @ | L 76-81 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 145.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 28 | vs | L 65-70 | -3.5 | L −8.5 | 159.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 31 | @ | L 86-103 | +3.5 | L −13.5 | 163.5 | O 189 |
| Feb 3 | vs | W 81-74 | -6.5 | W +0.5 | 157.5 | U 155 |
| Feb 6 | @ | W 91-81 | -1.5 | W +8.5 | 157.5 | O 172 |
| Feb 9 | vs | L 60-89 | -4.5 | L −33.5 | 145.5 | O 149 |
| Feb 12 | @ | W 74-72 | -3.5 | L −1.5 | 163.5 | U 146 |
| Feb 15 | vs | L 70-87 | +1.5 | L −15.5 | 166.5 | U 157 |
| Feb 18 | @ | L 61-78 | +2.5 | L −14.5 | 158.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 21 | vs | W 88-75 | -15.5 | L −2.5 | 153.5 | O 163 |
| Mar 1 | @ | L 78-87 | +3.5 | L −5.5 | 157.5 | O 165 |
| Mar 6 | vs | L 79-92 | +1.5 | L −11.5 | 150.5 | O 171 |
| Mar 18 | @ | L 75-89 | +8.5 | L −5.5 | 159.5 | O 164 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
OMA
W 85-77
+2.5
7
vs
MVSU
W 108-60
+9.5
11
@
SMU
L 91-102
−0.5
15
vs
NICH
W 99-79
+5.5
18
vs
LR
W 89-68
+7.5
23
vs
MTSU
L 87-90
−9.5
24
vs
MCN
L 60-73
−10.5
25
vs
GW
W 96-95
+8.5
2
vs
MORE
W 84-52
+15.5
6
vs
BELL
W 81-68
−3.5
13
vs
AKR
W 115-100
+19.5
18
vs
DRKE
W 81-72
+1.5
21
@
VAL
W 85-79
+0.5
29
vs
SIU
W 84-81
−3.5
1
@
UIC
W 81-77
−1.5
4
vs
BRAD
W 86-66
+14.5
7
@
EVAN
W 79-69
+1.5
10
vs
VAL
W 92-79
+0.5
17
vs
INST
W 85-81
−7.5
21
@
DRKE
L 90-101
−15.5
24
@
UNI
L 76-81
−6.5
28
vs
ILST
L 65-70
−8.5
31
@
BEL
L 86-103
−13.5
3
vs
UIC
W 81-74
+0.5
6
@
SIU
W 91-81
+8.5
9
vs
UNI
L 60-89
−33.5
12
@
INST
W 74-72
−1.5
15
vs
BEL
L 70-87
−15.5
18
@
ILST
L 61-78
−14.5
21
vs
EVAN
W 88-75
−2.5
1
@
BRAD
L 78-87
−5.5
6
vs
UIC
L 79-92
−11.5
18
@
NEV
L 75-89
−5.5
covered 14didn’t cover 19avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vs
OMA
W 85-77
+8.5
7
vs
MVSU
W 108-60
+8.5
11
@
SMU
L 91-102
+28.5
15
vs
NICH
W 99-79
+20.5
18
vs
LR
W 89-68
+3.5
23
vs
MTSU
L 87-90
+15.5
24
vs
MCN
L 60-73
−25.5
25
vs
GW
W 96-95
+23.5
2
vs
MORE
W 84-52
−22.5
6
vs
BELL
W 81-68
−8.5
13
vs
AKR
W 115-100
+46.5
18
vs
DRKE
W 81-72
−3.5
21
@
VAL
W 85-79
+8.5
29
vs
SIU
W 84-81
−0.5
1
@
UIC
W 81-77
−1.5
4
vs
BRAD
W 86-66
−10.5
7
@
EVAN
W 79-69
−5.5
10
vs
VAL
W 92-79
+18.5
17
vs
INST
W 85-81
−1.5
21
@
DRKE
L 90-101
+34.5
24
@
UNI
L 76-81
+11.5
28
vs
ILST
L 65-70
−24.5
31
@
BEL
L 86-103
+25.5
3
vs
UIC
W 81-74
−2.5
6
@
SIU
W 91-81
+14.5
9
vs
UNI
L 60-89
+3.5
12
@
INST
W 74-72
−17.5
15
vs
BEL
L 70-87
−9.5
18
@
ILST
L 61-78
−19.5
21
vs
EVAN
W 88-75
+9.5
1
@
BRAD
L 78-87
+7.5
6
vs
UIC
L 79-92
+20.5
18
@
NEV
L 75-89
+4.5
over 19under 14avg +4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Tennessee St
30 games played
Straight up
20-10
67% wins
Against the spread
18-12
60% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-16
47% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | @ | L 79-87 | +13.5 | W +5.5 | 158.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 16 | @ | L 82-95 | +12.5 | L −0.5 | 167.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 20 | @ | L 60-89 | +31.5 | W +2.5 | 157.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 25 | @ | W 75-73 | +5.5 | W +7.5 | 164.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 30 | @ | W 70-64 | +8.5 | W +14.5 | 155.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 3 | @ | L 53-80 | -4.5 | L −31.5 | 147.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 13 | @ | W 63-60 | +12.5 | W +15.5 | 161.5 | U 123 |
| Dec 18 | vs | W 78-71 | -2.5 | W +4.5 | 141.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 20 | vs | L 82-91 | +1.5 | L −7.5 | 151.5 | O 173 |
| Dec 30 | @ | W 88-76 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 155.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 3 | @ | W 84-79 | -1.5 | W +3.5 | 144.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 8 | @ | W 90-68 | -6.5 | W +15.5 | 145.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 10 | @ | L 70-74 | -3.5 | L −7.5 | 144.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 15 | vs | W 105-100 | -7.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | O 205 |
| Jan 17 | vs | W 73-67 | -8.5 | L −2.5 | 150.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 22 | @ | L 66-74 | +1.5 | L −6.5 | 142.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 24 | @ | W 96-86 | +4.5 | W +14.5 | 160.5 | O 182 |
| Jan 29 | vs | W 70-63 | -4.5 | W +2.5 | 150.5 | U 133 |
| Feb 2 | vs | L 85-90 | -7.5 | L −12.5 | 153.5 | O 175 |
| Feb 5 | vs | W 77-68 | -9.5 | L −0.5 | 145.5 | U 145 |
| Feb 7 | vs | W 83-56 | -15.5 | W +11.5 | 151.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 12 | @ | W 73-71 | -6.5 | L −4.5 | 147.5 | U 144 |
| Feb 14 | @ | L 86-94 | -1.5 | L −9.5 | 148.5 | O 180 |
| Feb 19 | vs | W 89-80 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 159.5 | O 169 |
| Feb 21 | vs | W 80-53 | -2.5 | W +24.5 | 143.5 | U 133 |
| Feb 26 | @ | W 79-71 | +2.5 | W +10.5 | 151.5 | U 150 |
| Feb 28 | @ | W 67-42 | +2.5 | W +27.5 | 143.5 | U 109 |
| Mar 6 | vs | W 68-55 | -1.5 | W +11.5 | 137.5 | U 123 |
| Mar 7 | vs | W 93-67 | -5.5 | W +20.5 | 143.5 | O 160 |
| Mar 20 | vs | L 74-108 | +24.5 | L −9.5 | 147.5 | O 182 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
@
BEL
L 79-87
+5.5
16
@
WKU
L 82-95
−0.5
20
@
TENN
L 60-89
+2.5
25
@
UNCA
W 75-73
+7.5
30
@
UTC
W 70-64
+14.5
3
@
AAMU
L 53-80
−31.5
13
@
UNLV
W 63-60
+15.5
18
vs
UTM
W 78-71
+4.5
20
vs
SEMO
L 82-91
−7.5
30
@
TNTC
W 88-76
+10.5
3
@
LR
W 84-79
+3.5
8
@
WIU
W 90-68
+15.5
10
@
EIU
L 70-74
−7.5
15
vs
MORE
W 105-100
−2.5
17
vs
USI
W 73-67
−2.5
22
@
SIUE
L 66-74
−6.5
24
@
LIN
W 96-86
+14.5
29
vs
LR
W 70-63
+2.5
2
vs
TNTC
L 85-90
−12.5
5
vs
EIU
W 77-68
−0.5
7
vs
WIU
W 83-56
+11.5
12
@
USI
W 73-71
−4.5
14
@
MORE
L 86-94
−9.5
19
vs
LIN
W 89-80
+5.5
21
vs
SIUE
W 80-53
+24.5
26
@
SEMO
W 79-71
+10.5
28
@
UTM
W 67-42
+27.5
6
vs
UTM
W 68-55
+11.5
7
vs
MORE
W 93-67
+20.5
20
vs
ISU
L 74-108
−9.5
covered 18didn’t cover 12avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
@
BEL
L 79-87
+7.5
16
@
WKU
L 82-95
+9.5
20
@
TENN
L 60-89
−8.5
25
@
UNCA
W 75-73
−16.5
30
@
UTC
W 70-64
−21.5
3
@
AAMU
L 53-80
−14.5
13
@
UNLV
W 63-60
−38.5
18
vs
UTM
W 78-71
+7.5
20
vs
SEMO
L 82-91
+21.5
30
@
TNTC
W 88-76
+8.5
3
@
LR
W 84-79
+18.5
8
@
WIU
W 90-68
+12.5
10
@
EIU
L 70-74
−0.5
15
vs
MORE
W 105-100
+56.5
17
vs
USI
W 73-67
−10.5
22
@
SIUE
L 66-74
−2.5
24
@
LIN
W 96-86
+21.5
29
vs
LR
W 70-63
−17.5
2
vs
TNTC
L 85-90
+21.5
5
vs
EIU
W 77-68
−0.5
7
vs
WIU
W 83-56
−12.5
12
@
USI
W 73-71
−3.5
14
@
MORE
L 86-94
+31.5
19
vs
LIN
W 89-80
+9.5
21
vs
SIUE
W 80-53
−10.5
26
@
SEMO
W 79-71
−1.5
28
@
UTM
W 67-42
−34.5
6
vs
UTM
W 68-55
−14.5
7
vs
MORE
W 93-67
+16.5
20
vs
ISU
L 74-108
+34.5
over 14under 16avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
The starting fives are even
Position by position: Murray St 2, Tennessee St 2, even 1
Murray StBetterTennessee St
G C. Jones TR10 pts · 3 reb · 3.1 ast
Score 61
→TNSTSmall
G T. Johnson TR15 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.2 ast
Score 85
G R. Domon14.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.6 ast
Score 95
←MURBig
G A. Morris TR11.1 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.7 ast
Score 30
G M. Courbon4.6 pts · 2 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 31
=Even
G C. Alston TR4.5 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.3 ast
Score 42
F S. Tupuola TR6.3 pts · 5.8 reb · 0.8 ast
Score 55
→TNSTSmall
F A. Bradshaw TR8.6 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.6 ast
Score 79
F B. Rogers TR6.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.7 ast
Score 67
←MURSmall
F J. Rivera TR3.3 pts · 2 reb · 0.5 ast
Score 47
Murray StBetterTennessee St
MUR offense110th of 366 · -1.8
←MURBig
TNST defense290th of 366 · -7.3
MUR defense197th of 366 · -4.8
=Even
TNST offense207th of 366 · -6.3
Backcourt+2.2 · 3 players
←MURSmall
Backcourt-0.4 · 3 players
Frontcourt+0.4 · 2 players
=Even
Frontcourt+1.0 · 2 players
Bench-1.0 · 2 players
←MURSmall
Bench-2.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMUR betterTNST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Guards
C. Jones26 min · TRR. Domon25 minM. Courbon16 minB. Shorter15 minK. Magwood11 min · TRB. ShtolzbergNew
Forwards
S. Tupuola25 min · TRB. Rogers18 min · TRP. NikolicNewJ. BoulefaaNew
Guards
T. Johnson29 min · TRA. Morris28 min · TRC. Alston11 min · TRD. Howard8 minI. Stewart4 min · TRJ. Jones3 min
Forwards
A. Bradshaw19 min · TRJ. Rivera12 min · TRK. Jones11 minD. LindseyNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Matchup stats
2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Points per game
Points per possession
Pace (possessions)
Shooting
Effective FG%
3-point %
3-point attempt rate
Free throw rate
Possessions
Turnover rate
Offensive rebound rate
Assists per game
Defense
Points allowed
Points allowed per possession
Opponent effective FG%
Opponent 3-point %
Turnovers forced
Defensive rebound rate
Steals per game
Blocks per game
| Scoring | ||
|---|---|---|
| 83.1 #26 | Points per game | 77.9 #96 |
| 1.15 #56 | Points per possession | 1.10 #146 |
| 72.3 #30 | Pace (possessions) | 71.1 #66 |
| Shooting | ||
| 53.8 #70 | Effective FG% | 50.0 #237 |
| 35.0 #120 | 3-point % | 33.3 #211 |
| 44.8 #72 | 3-point attempt rate | 30.7 #344 |
| 38.6 #86 | Free throw rate | 33.4 #228 |
| Possessions | ||
| 16.4 #160 | Turnover rate | 16.7 #177 |
| 32.6 #100 | Offensive rebound rate | 34.8 #53 |
| 13.7 #165 | Assists per game | 12.7 #237 |
| Defense | ||
| 80.2 #323 | Points allowed | 75.1 #191 |
| 1.11 #233 | Points allowed per possession | 1.06 #97 |
| 52.4 #236 | Opponent effective FG% | 51.6 #190 |
| 36.2 #310 | Opponent 3-point % | 34.0 #183 |
| 15.7 #234 | Turnovers forced | 19.8 #26 |
| 68.7 #214 | Defensive rebound rate | 69.4 #184 |
| 5.9 #248 | Steals per game | 9.0 #10 |
| 4.1 #69 | Blocks per game | 3.8 #99 |
Murray St
20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Nevada75–89
- Lvs UIC79–92
- L@ Bradley78–87
- Wvs Evansville88–75
- L@ Illinois St61–78
A week or more of rest.
Tennessee St
20-10 in 2025-26 overall · 17-5 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Iowa State74–108
- Wvs Morehead St93–67
- Wvs UT Martin68–55
- W@ UT Martin67–42
- W@ SE Missouri79–71
A week or more of rest.