Winthrop Eagles vs Queens University Royals: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 9:00 AM ETRock Hill Sports & Event Center · Neutral site

LineQUC -1.5no move

Total167.5up 2 from 165.5

Season records: Winthrop and Queens University Royals
WIN	This season	QUC
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects QUC 83–81 · win probability QUC 56%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

QUC -1.5

no move since the open

Total

167.5

model 164.4 · Under by 3

Model edge

Even

matches the market

Public on the spread

85% WIN

78% of the money

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WIN has more of the edges

WIN 4, QUC 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

WINBig

WIN offense vs QUC defense

Offense 135th of 366 against a defense 331st, on the model’s ratings

QUCBig

QUC offense vs WIN defense

Offense 102nd of 366 against a defense 298th, on the model’s ratings

WINBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WIN 34.1%, QUC 30.2%. Defensive: WIN 72.3%, QUC 66.4%

WINSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: WIN 44.0, QUC 35.4. Allowed: WIN 39.0, QUC 38.1

WINSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WIN 14.7%, QUC 14.8%. Forced: WIN 16.6%, QUC 15.1%

QUCSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: WIN 49.7 and allows 51.5; QUC 56.4 and allows 54.6

Even

Three-pointers

WIN hits 33.2% and allows 32.9%; QUC hits 35.7% and allows 36.5%. Threes are 44.1% and 46.5% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WIN 13%, QUC 0%. Transfers in: WIN 5, QUC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 72 possessions: WIN plays 72.0 a game (35th fastest), QUC 71.2 (65th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

WIN has played the 206th-hardest schedule, QUC the 194th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Neutral-site favorites of under 3	576	53%	48%	48%
Non-conference games at this spread	1094	54%	49%	50%
Games with a total of 165 to 169.5	312	74%	46%	46%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenQUC -1.5

no move

NowQUC -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open165.5

▲ 2

Now167.5

Up 2 since the open

Moneyline

WIN +105 · QUC -125

Line movement

Median of 7 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened QUC -1.5 · unchangedmodel QUC -2

model QUC -2

Oct 31line modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

WIN +1.5Spread

QUC -1.5

Bets

85%15%

Money

78%22%

Over 167.5TotalUnder 167.5

Bets

34%66%

Money

38%62%

WINWinner

QUC

Bets

61%39%

Money

65%35%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Mon, Nov 2, 4:41 AM ET. ⓘ

Books

7 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	WIN	QUC	Over	Under	WIN	QUC
BetMGMMGM	-1.5-110	+1.5-110	167.5-105	167.5-115	+100	-120
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-2-105	+2-115	168+100	168-120	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	-1.5-105	+1.5-120	167.5-115	167.5-108	+112	-139
BovadaBovada	-2-105	+2-115	168+100	168-120	+105	-125
DraftKingsDK	-1.5-115	+1.5-105	167.5-105	167.5-115	-105	-115
FanDuelFD	-1.5-110	+1.5-110	167.5-110	167.5-110	+106	-128
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-2-101	+2-111	168+102	168-119	—	—

Prices from The Odds API, updated 5:30 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	QUC -1.5	QUC -1.8	QUC +0.3
Total	167.5	164.4	Under 3.1
Projected score	—	WIN 81.3 · QUC 83.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	QUC -1.0	—
1H total	76.8	—
1H projected score	WIN 37.9 · QUC 38.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
WIN LLLLL	12-19	39%	1-3	5-2
QUC LLWWL	15-19	44%	2-3	10-11

Venue/role: WIN neutral site, as underdog; QUC neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
WIN OUOUO	15-16	48%	20-11
QUC UUOOO	22-12	65%	20-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WIN	7-3 70%	1-9 10%	5-5 50%
QUC	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Winthrop

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs UND	L88–90LO
Nov 10	@ KENN	No recent meeting
Nov 14	vs JKST	W80–62WU

Queens University Royals

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 4	@ LMU	No recent meeting
Nov 6	@ OKST	No recent meeting
Nov 10	@ BYU	L55–99LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

WIN 3–0 QUCWIN leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · WIN has won the last 3 meetings · WIN 2-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 3, 2025-26	QUC 74 vs WIN 81	WIN -3.5	WIN W
Dec 3, 2024-25	WIN 86 @ QUC 78	QUC +4.5	WIN W
Dec 5, 2023-24	QUC 82 @ WIN 88	WIN -7	QUC W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Winthrop

31 games played

Straight up

20-11

65% wins

Against the spread

12-19

39% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-16

48% overs · avg +0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1165%

W L L W L W L W W L L L L W W W W W W W W W W W W L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

12-1939%

W W L W W W W W L L L L L L L W W L L W W L L L L W L L L L L

5 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1648%

U O U O U U U O O O O U U O U U O U U O O U U O U O O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsQUC	W 81-74	-3.5	W +3.5	163.5	U 155
Nov 7	@GMU	L 90-96	+9.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 186
Nov 11	@CCU	L 66-72	-2.5	L −8.5	165.5	U 138
Nov 15	vsMER	W 105-69	-2.5	W +33.5	162.5	O 174
Nov 18	@ARK	L 83-84	+23.5	W +22.5	168.5	U 167
Nov 23	@JKST	W 80-62	-10.5	W +7.5	163.5	U 142
Nov 25	@NEB	L 73-80	+14.5	W +7.5	166.5	U 153
Nov 29	vsSCST	W 101-79	-20.5	W +1.5	157.5	O 180
Dec 2	@LIU	W 94-92	-5.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 186
Dec 6	vsCCU	L 84-88	-16.5	L −20.5	153.5	O 172
Dec 18	@UND	L 88-90	-12.5	L −14.5	157.5	O 178
Dec 28	@TTU	L 57-87	+17.5	L −12.5	163.5	U 144
Dec 31	@LONG	L 70-82	-7.5	L −19.5	161.5	U 152
Jan 3	vsGWEB	W 88-77	-23.5	L −12.5	164.5	O 165
Jan 7	vsCHSO	W 81-77	-8.5	L −4.5	166.5	U 158
Jan 10	@UPST	W 71-50	-5.5	W +15.5	157.5	U 121
Jan 14	vsHPU	W 92-75	+2.5	W +19.5	162.5	O 167
Jan 17	@UNCA	W 69-67	-5.5	L −3.5	152.5	U 136
Jan 21	vsRAD	W 76-75	-9.5	L −8.5	165.5	U 151
Jan 24	@PRES	W 82-72	-5.5	W +4.5	146.5	O 154
Jan 31	vsUNCA	W 84-71	-9.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 155
Feb 4	@RAD	W 80-78	-4.5	L −2.5	161.5	U 158
Feb 7	vsLONG	W 79-74	-10.5	L −5.5	153.5	U 153
Feb 12	@GWEB	W 103-85	-20.5	L −2.5	156.5	O 188
Feb 19	vsUPST	W 68-64	-13.5	L −9.5	158.5	U 132
Feb 21	@HPU	L 87-89	+9.5	W +7.5	166.5	O 176
Feb 26	@CHSO	L 84-86	-8.5	L −10.5	164.5	O 170
Feb 28	vsPRES	W 74-70	-7.5	L −3.5	150.5	U 144
Mar 6	vsCHSO	W 86-81	-6.5	L −1.5	164.5	O 167
Mar 7	vsPRES	W 73-71	-7.5	L −5.5	145.5	U 144
Mar 8	vsHPU	L 76-91	+6.5	L −8.5	157.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

QUC

W 81-74

+3.5

GMU

L 90-96

+3.5

CCU

L 66-72

−8.5

MER

W 105-69

+33.5

ARK

L 83-84

+22.5

JKST

W 80-62

+7.5

NEB

L 73-80

+7.5

SCST

W 101-79

+1.5

LIU

W 94-92

−3.5

CCU

L 84-88

−20.5

UND

L 88-90

−14.5

TTU

L 57-87

−12.5

LONG

L 70-82

−19.5

GWEB

W 88-77

−12.5

CHSO

W 81-77

−4.5

UPST

W 71-50

+15.5

HPU

W 92-75

+19.5

UNCA

W 69-67

−3.5

RAD

W 76-75

−8.5

PRES

W 82-72

+4.5

UNCA

W 84-71

+3.5

RAD

W 80-78

−2.5

LONG

W 79-74

−5.5

GWEB

W 103-85

−2.5

UPST

W 68-64

−9.5

HPU

L 87-89

+7.5

CHSO

L 84-86

−10.5

PRES

W 74-70

−3.5

CHSO

W 86-81

−1.5

PRES

W 73-71

−5.5

HPU

L 76-91

−8.5

covered 12didn’t cover 19avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

QUC

W 81-74

−8.5

GMU

L 90-96

+39.5

CCU

L 66-72

−27.5

MER

W 105-69

+11.5

ARK

L 83-84

−1.5

JKST

W 80-62

−21.5

NEB

L 73-80

−13.5

SCST

W 101-79

+22.5

LIU

W 94-92

+32.5

CCU

L 84-88

+18.5

UND

L 88-90

+20.5

TTU

L 57-87

−19.5

LONG

L 70-82

−9.5

GWEB

W 88-77

+0.5

CHSO

W 81-77

−8.5

UPST

W 71-50

−36.5

HPU

W 92-75

+4.5

UNCA

W 69-67

−16.5

RAD

W 76-75

−14.5

PRES

W 82-72

+7.5

UNCA

W 84-71

+7.5

RAD

W 80-78

−3.5

LONG

W 79-74

−0.5

GWEB

W 103-85

+31.5

UPST

W 68-64

−26.5

HPU

L 87-89

+9.5

CHSO

L 84-86

+5.5

PRES

W 74-70

−6.5

CHSO

W 86-81

+2.5

PRES

W 73-71

−1.5

HPU

L 76-91

+9.5

over 15under 16avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Queens University Royals

34 games played

Straight up

20-14

59% wins

Against the spread

15-19

44% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

22-12

65% overs · avg +6.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1459%

L L L W W L L W W L L L W W W W W W W L L L W W L W W W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1944%

L L W W L L W W W L L L L W W L W L W L L L W W L W L L W L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

22-1265%

U O O U O O O O O O O U O O U U U O U U O U O U O O O O O U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWIN	L 74-81	+3.5	L −3.5	163.5	U 155
Nov 8	@VILL	L 74-94	+17.5	L −2.5	150.5	O 168
Nov 11	@DUQ	L 81-87	+12.5	W +6.5	162.5	O 168
Nov 15	vsSHU	W 81-64	-5.5	W +11.5	165.5	U 145
Nov 20	vsUNCG	W 101-94	-7.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 195
Nov 23	@FUR	L 79-90	+8.5	L −2.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 28	@UVA	L 69-94	+25.5	W +0.5	160.5	O 163
Dec 3	vsGWEB	W 107-74	-14.5	W +18.5	161.5	O 181
Dec 12	vsSCST	W 102-78	-18.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 180
Dec 14	@WAKE	L 73-111	+18.5	L −19.5	165.5	O 184
Dec 16	@ARK	L 80-108	+23.5	L −4.5	169.5	O 188
Dec 29	@AUB	L 65-106	+25.5	L −15.5	171.5	U 171
Jan 1	vsEKU	W 91-89	-4.5	L −2.5	164.5	O 180
Jan 3	vsBELL	W 98-76	-7.5	W +14.5	169.5	O 174
Jan 8	@JAX	W 77-51	-4.5	W +21.5	154.5	U 128
Jan 10	@UNF	W 89-82	-11.5	L −4.5	173.5	U 171
Jan 15	@FGCU	W 85-74	+1.5	W +12.5	166.5	U 159
Jan 17	@STET	W 87-81	-10.5	L −4.5	162.5	O 168
Jan 21	vsUNA	W 87-62	-12.5	W +12.5	162.5	U 149
Jan 24	@WGA	L 66-74	-7.5	L −15.5	162.5	U 140
Jan 28	vsCARK	L 90-100	-5.5	L −15.5	158.5	O 190
Jan 31	@BELL	L 75-78	-5.5	L −8.5	163.5	U 153
Feb 5	vsJAX	W 93-84	-8.5	W +0.5	146.5	O 177
Feb 7	vsUNF	W 91-72	-15.5	W +3.5	178.5	U 163
Feb 11	vsAPSU	L 87-95	-2.5	L −10.5	161.5	O 182
Feb 14	vsLIP	W 87-81	-3.5	W +2.5	165.5	O 168
Feb 18	@UNA	W 85-78	-8.5	L −1.5	156.5	O 163
Feb 21	vsWGA	W 91-84	-11.5	L −4.5	161.5	O 175
Feb 25	@EKU	W 96-79	-2.5	W +14.5	165.5	O 175
Feb 28	@CARK	L 79-84	+2.5	L −2.5	163.5	U 163
Mar 6	vsWGA	W 71-63	-8.5	L −0.5	164.5	U 134
Mar 7	vsAPSU	W 90-83	+2.5	W +9.5	161.5	O 173
Mar 8	vsCARK	W 98-93	+1.5	W +6.5	157.5	O 191
Mar 20	vsPUR	L 71-104	+25.5	L −7.5	159.5	O 175

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WIN

L 74-81

−3.5

VILL

L 74-94

−2.5

DUQ

L 81-87

+6.5

SHU

W 81-64

+11.5

UNCG

W 101-94

−0.5

FUR

L 79-90

−2.5

UVA

L 69-94

+0.5

GWEB

W 107-74

+18.5

SCST

W 102-78

+5.5

WAKE

L 73-111

−19.5

ARK

L 80-108

−4.5

AUB

L 65-106

−15.5

EKU

W 91-89

−2.5

BELL

W 98-76

+14.5

JAX

W 77-51

+21.5

UNF

W 89-82

−4.5

FGCU

W 85-74

+12.5

STET

W 87-81

−4.5

UNA

W 87-62

+12.5

WGA

L 66-74

−15.5

CARK

L 90-100

−15.5

BELL

L 75-78

−8.5

JAX

W 93-84

+0.5

UNF

W 91-72

+3.5

APSU

L 87-95

−10.5

LIP

W 87-81

+2.5

UNA

W 85-78

−1.5

WGA

W 91-84

−4.5

EKU

W 96-79

+14.5

CARK

L 79-84

−2.5

WGA

W 71-63

−0.5

APSU

W 90-83

+9.5

CARK

W 98-93

+6.5

PUR

L 71-104

−7.5

covered 15didn’t cover 19avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WIN

L 74-81

−8.5

VILL

L 74-94

+17.5

DUQ

L 81-87

+5.5

SHU

W 81-64

−20.5

UNCG

W 101-94

+44.5

FUR

L 79-90

+15.5

UVA

L 69-94

+2.5

GWEB

W 107-74

+19.5

SCST

W 102-78

+22.5

WAKE

L 73-111

+18.5

ARK

L 80-108

+18.5

AUB

L 65-106

−0.5

EKU

W 91-89

+15.5

BELL

W 98-76

+4.5

JAX

W 77-51

−26.5

UNF

W 89-82

−2.5

FGCU

W 85-74

−7.5

STET

W 87-81

+5.5

UNA

W 87-62

−13.5

WGA

L 66-74

−22.5

CARK

L 90-100

+31.5

BELL

L 75-78

−10.5

JAX

W 93-84

+30.5

UNF

W 91-72

−15.5

APSU

L 87-95

+20.5

LIP

W 87-81

+2.5

UNA

W 85-78

+6.5

WGA

W 91-84

+13.5

EKU

W 96-79

+9.5

CARK

L 79-84

−0.5

WGA

W 71-63

−30.5

APSU

W 90-83

+11.5

CARK

W 98-93

+33.5

PUR

L 71-104

+15.5

over 22under 12avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WIN81.5 #40

QUC84.4 #16

Points per possession

WIN1.13 #79

QUC1.19 #25

Pace (possessions)

WIN72.0 #35

QUC71.2 #65

Shooting

Effective FG%

WIN49.7 #250

QUC56.4 #15

3-point %

WIN33.2 #217

QUC35.7 #74

3-point attempt rate

WIN44.1 #88

QUC46.5 #38

Free throw rate

WIN44.0 #10

QUC35.4 #167

Possessions

Turnover rate

WIN14.7 #52

QUC14.8 #54

Offensive rebound rate

WIN34.1 #63

QUC30.2 #190

Assists per game

WIN13.6 #177

QUC16.0 #49

Defense

Points allowed

WIN77.7 #261

QUC83.8 #355

Points allowed per possession

WIN1.08 #154

QUC1.17 #346

Opponent effective FG%

WIN51.5 #182

QUC54.6 #319

Opponent 3-point %

WIN32.9 #113

QUC36.5 #325

Turnovers forced

WIN16.6 #174

QUC15.1 #276

Defensive rebound rate

WIN72.3 #55

QUC66.4 #308

Steals per game

WIN6.6 #161

QUC6.0 #238

Blocks per game

WIN2.7 #281

QUC2.9 #236

WIN		QUC
Scoring
81.5 #40	Points per game	84.4 #16
1.13 #79	Points per possession	1.19 #25
72.0 #35	Pace (possessions)	71.2 #65
Shooting
49.7 #250	Effective FG%	56.4 #15
33.2 #217	3-point %	35.7 #74
44.1 #88	3-point attempt rate	46.5 #38
44.0 #10	Free throw rate	35.4 #167
Possessions
14.7 #52	Turnover rate	14.8 #54
34.1 #63	Offensive rebound rate	30.2 #190
13.6 #177	Assists per game	16.0 #49
Defense
77.7 #261	Points allowed	83.8 #355
1.08 #154	Points allowed per possession	1.17 #346
51.5 #182	Opponent effective FG%	54.6 #319
32.9 #113	Opponent 3-point %	36.5 #325
16.6 #174	Turnovers forced	15.1 #276
72.3 #55	Defensive rebound rate	66.4 #308
6.6 #161	Steals per game	6.0 #238
2.7 #281	Blocks per game	2.9 #236

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Winthrop

20-11 in 2025-26 overall · 15-4 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs High Point76–91
Wvs Presbyterian73–71
Wvs Charleston So86–81
Wvs Presbyterian74–70
L@ Charleston So84–86

A week or more of rest.

Queens University Royals

20-14 in 2025-26 overall · 16-5 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Purdue71–104
Wvs C Arkansas98–93
Wvs Austin Peay90–83
Wvs West Georgia71–63
L@ C Arkansas79–84

A week or more of rest.