Queens University Royals at Jacksonville Dolphins: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Jan 8, 7:00 PM ETSwisher Gymnasium · at Jacksonville · Conference game

#175QUCQueens University Royals77▲ winner

Final

Closing lineQUC -4.5✓ QUC covered by 21.5

Closing total154.5Under by 26.5

Season records: Queens University Royals and Jacksonville
QUC	This season	JAX
6-8	Record	3-10
6-8	ATS	4-9
11-3	O/U	4-9

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: QUC 80–77 JAX · ✓ QUC (59%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
QUC	41	36	77
JAX	22	29	51

1st half: QUC 41, JAX 22 (QUC by 19). The model had QUC by 1.6 and a total of 73.6 (actual 63).

Team stats

QUC		JAX
27-55 49%	Field goals	19-52 37%
13-27 48%	3-pointers	4-19 21%
10-17 59%	Free throws	9-20 45%
30 7 off	Rebounds	32 11 off
15	Assists	5
6	Steals	8
2	Blocks	5
11	Turnovers	13
14	Fouls	15
28	Points in paint	30
9	Fast-break points	9

Players

QUC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Yoav Berman F	30	6	3	5	2-7	2-4
Chris Ashby G	28	20	4	0	6-8	6-8
Nasir Mann G	25	9	5	3	4-9	0-1
Carson Schwieger F	19	12	2	1	3-9	3-8
Avantae Parker F	18	4	2	2	1-3	0-0
Bench
Jordan Watford G	22	12	2	2	5-7	0-0
Maban Jabriel G	21	8	6	2	3-6	2-4
Gus Larson F	14	2	3	0	1-3	0-1
Isaiah Henry G	9	4	1	0	2-3	0-1
Kam Clark G	9	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Reid Celestin F	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Tyler Crider G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jimma James, Saif-Allah Zatari, Danzelle Bullock Coles, Seamus Wilson, Matthew Walter, Colby Christiansen, Jacob Brandly

JAX	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Hayden Wood G	34	8	4	1	3-10	1-6
Jaylen Jones G	33	11	0	3	4-11	2-3
Jason Thirdkill Jr. F	33	7	8	1	3-6	0-1
Evan Sterck G	24	5	6	0	1-7	1-5
Donovan Rivers F	13	8	4	0	4-6	0-0
Bench
Chris Lockett Jr. G	22	5	3	0	2-4	0-0
Enrico Borio F	15	0	2	0	0-2	0-2
Charles Caporaso C	13	3	3	0	1-1	0-0
Jaylen Jordon F	6	4	2	0	1-3	0-0
Michael Harper Jr. G	6	0	0	0	0-2	0-2
Lamont Jackson G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Roman Loux, Simon Wheeler, Anakin Brown, Chris Arias, Tito Deng, Allen Udemadu

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	QUC -4.5	QUC -2.6	JAX +1.9	L QUC covered
Total	154.5	157.2	Over 2.7	L Under
Projected score	—	QUC 79.9 · JAX 77.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	QUC -1.6	QUC -19.0
1H total	73.6	63
1H projected score	QUC 37.6 · JAX 36	QUC 41 · JAX 22

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
QUC LLLLW	6-8	43%	2-5	4-2
JAX LLLLW	4-9	31%	0-1	3-7

Venue/role: QUC away, as favorite; JAX home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
QUC OOUOO	11-3	79%	6-8
JAX OUUUU	4-9	31%	3-10

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
QUC	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	9-1 90%
JAX	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

QUC 1–3 JAXJAX leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · QUC 2-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 25, 2024-25	JAX 87 @ QUC 77	QUC -0.5	JAX W
Feb 16, 2023-24	JAX 65 @ QUC 74	QUC -2.5	QUC W
Jan 18, 2023-24	QUC 77 @ JAX 79	JAX -2.5	QUC W
Jan 21, 2022-23	QUC 70 @ JAX 77	JAX -3.5	JAX W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Queens University Royals

14 games played

Straight up

6-8

43% wins

Against the spread

6-8

43% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-3

79% overs · avg +11.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-843%

L L L W W L L W W L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-843%

L L W W L L W W W L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

11-379%

U O O U O O O O O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWIN	L 74-81	+3.5	L −3.5	163.5	U 155
Nov 8	@VILL	L 74-94	+17.5	L −2.5	150.5	O 168
Nov 11	@DUQ	L 81-87	+12.5	W +6.5	162.5	O 168
Nov 15	vsSHU	W 81-64	-5.5	W +11.5	165.5	U 145
Nov 20	vsUNCG	W 101-94	-7.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 195
Nov 23	@FUR	L 79-90	+8.5	L −2.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 28	@UVA	L 69-94	+25.5	W +0.5	160.5	O 163
Dec 3	vsGWEB	W 107-74	-14.5	W +18.5	161.5	O 181
Dec 12	vsSCST	W 102-78	-18.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 180
Dec 14	@WAKE	L 73-111	+18.5	L −19.5	165.5	O 184
Dec 16	@ARK	L 80-108	+23.5	L −4.5	169.5	O 188
Dec 29	@AUB	L 65-106	+25.5	L −15.5	171.5	U 171
Jan 1	vsEKU	W 91-89	-4.5	L −2.5	164.5	O 180
Jan 3	vsBELL	W 98-76	-7.5	W +14.5	169.5	O 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WIN

L 74-81

−3.5

VILL

L 74-94

−2.5

DUQ

L 81-87

+6.5

SHU

W 81-64

+11.5

UNCG

W 101-94

−0.5

FUR

L 79-90

−2.5

UVA

L 69-94

+0.5

GWEB

W 107-74

+18.5

SCST

W 102-78

+5.5

WAKE

L 73-111

−19.5

ARK

L 80-108

−4.5

AUB

L 65-106

−15.5

EKU

W 91-89

−2.5

BELL

W 98-76

+14.5

covered 6didn’t cover 8avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WIN

L 74-81

−8.5

VILL

L 74-94

+17.5

DUQ

L 81-87

+5.5

SHU

W 81-64

−20.5

UNCG

W 101-94

+44.5

FUR

L 79-90

+15.5

UVA

L 69-94

+2.5

GWEB

W 107-74

+19.5

SCST

W 102-78

+22.5

WAKE

L 73-111

+18.5

ARK

L 80-108

+18.5

AUB

L 65-106

−0.5

EKU

W 91-89

+15.5

BELL

W 98-76

+4.5

over 11under 3avg +11.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Jacksonville

13 games played

Straight up

3-10

23% wins

Against the spread

4-9

31% covers · avg −4.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-9

31% overs · avg +0.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-1023%

L L W L W L W L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-931%

W L W L W L L L L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-931%

O U U U U U O O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MIA	L 69-86	+18.5	W +1.5	142.5	O 155
Nov 11	@HPU	L 64-85	+17.5	L −3.5	156.5	U 149
Nov 15	@VMI	W 69-67	-1.5	W +0.5	151.5	U 136
Nov 18	@GMU	L 57-79	+16.5	L −5.5	136.5	U 136
Nov 24	vsBCU	W 69-64	+3.5	W +8.5	143.5	U 133
Nov 25	vsPAC	L 53-68	+2.5	L −12.5	135.5	U 121
Dec 2	vsFAMU	W 85-82	-10.5	L −7.5	138.5	O 167
Dec 6	@FIU	L 65-88	+5.5	L −17.5	145.5	O 153
Dec 14	@TA&M	L 75-112	+26.5	L −10.5	147.5	O 187
Dec 17	@FAMU	L 65-72	-3.5	L −10.5	139.5	U 137
Dec 22	@FSU	L 63-87	+23.5	L −0.5	159.5	U 150
Jan 1	@LIP	L 57-76	+12.5	L −6.5	147.5	U 133
Jan 3	@APSU	L 68-71	+10.5	W +7.5	140.5	U 139

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

L 69-86

+1.5

HPU

L 64-85

−3.5

VMI

W 69-67

+0.5

GMU

L 57-79

−5.5

BCU

W 69-64

+8.5

PAC

L 53-68

−12.5

FAMU

W 85-82

−7.5

FIU

L 65-88

−17.5

TA&M

L 75-112

−10.5

FAMU

L 65-72

−10.5

FSU

L 63-87

−0.5

LIP

L 57-76

−6.5

APSU

L 68-71

+7.5

covered 4didn’t cover 9avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

L 69-86

+12.5

HPU

L 64-85

−7.5

VMI

W 69-67

−15.5

GMU

L 57-79

−0.5

BCU

W 69-64

−10.5

PAC

L 53-68

−14.5

FAMU

W 85-82

+28.5

FIU

L 65-88

+7.5

TA&M

L 75-112

+39.5

FAMU

L 65-72

−2.5

FSU

L 63-87

−9.5

LIP

L 57-76

−14.5

APSU

L 68-71

−1.5

over 4under 9avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Queens University Royals at Jacksonville Dolphins

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Queens University Royals

Jacksonville

Queens University Royals

Jacksonville