Jacksonville Dolphins at Florida International Panthers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 6, 2:00 PM ETOcean Bank Convocation Center · at FIU

Final

#178FIUFIU88▲ winner

Closing lineFIU -5.5✓ FIU covered by 17.5

Closing total145.5Over by 7.5

Season records: Jacksonville and FIU
JAX	This season	FIU
3-4	Record	2-3
3-4	ATS	3-2
2-5	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: JAX 70–76 FIU · ✓ FIU (70%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
JAX	23	42	65
FIU	41	47	88

1st half: JAX 23, FIU 41 (FIU by 18). The model had FIU by 3.5 and a total of 68.7 (actual 64).

Team stats

JAX		FIU
22-64 34%	Field goals	27-48 56%
12-33 36%	3-pointers	11-16 69%
9-14 64%	Free throws	23-30 77%
39 19 off	Rebounds	31 6 off
15	Assists	18
7	Steals	17
4	Blocks	3
19	Turnovers	12
22	Fouls	17
14	Points in paint	30
3	Fast-break points	14

Players

JAX	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Chris Arias G	23	7	5	2	3-7	1-5
Hayden Wood G	23	8	4	0	3-7	2-5
Evan Sterck G	17	8	2	1	3-7	2-4
Jaylen Jordon F	16	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Donovan Rivers F	10	0	4	0	0-2	0-0
Bench
Chris Lockett Jr. G	31	15	1	4	5-15	4-9
Michael Harper Jr. G	17	6	5	1	2-9	1-3
Jaylen Jones G	17	2	2	0	1-5	0-1
Allen Udemadu F	13	1	6	1	0-2	0-0
Enrico Borio F	12	3	3	2	1-2	1-2
Jason Thirdkill Jr. F	9	9	3	0	3-6	1-4
Charles Caporaso C	9	6	3	2	1-2	0-0
Simon Wheeler G	3	0	0	2	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Anakin Brown, Lamont Jackson, Tito Deng, Roman Loux

FIU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Eric Dibami C	25	14	6	1	4-5	0-0
Corey Stephenson G	24	14	5	2	4-7	2-3
Zawdie Jackson G	22	9	0	6	2-2	0-0
Hamed Olayinka F	19	5	6	1	1-3	0-0
Ashton Williamson G	17	7	1	0	3-5	1-2
Bench
Brit Harris G	21	12	2	2	4-6	4-6
Julian Mackey G	21	11	1	0	3-6	3-4
Thiago Sucatzky G	16	7	0	4	3-5	1-1
Ibrahim Olajuwon C	12	4	3	0	1-6	0-0
Kennedy Brown F	12	2	2	1	1-2	0-0
Amarion Nimmers G	8	3	0	1	1-1	0-0
Renato Ruiz G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Mikey Kelvin II, Gvidas Gicevicius, Jorge Santos

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	FIU -5.5	FIU -6.1	FIU +0.6	W FIU covered
Total	145.5	146.7	Over 1.2	W Over
Projected score	—	JAX 70.3 · FIU 76.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	FIU -3.5	FIU -18.0
1H total	68.7	64
1H projected score	JAX 32.6 · FIU 36.1	JAX 23 · FIU 41

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JAX WLWLL	3-4	43%	2-2	2-3
FIU LWLWW	3-2	60%	2-1	1-1

Venue/role: JAX away, as underdog; FIU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
JAX UUUUO	2-5	29%	3-4
FIU OOUUO	3-2	60%	2-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JAXlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	2-5 29%
FIUlast 5	2-3 40%	3-2 60%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Jacksonville

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −2.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −1.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

L L W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

O U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MIA	L 69-86	+18.5	W +1.5	142.5	O 155
Nov 11	@HPU	L 64-85	+17.5	L −3.5	156.5	U 149
Nov 15	@VMI	W 69-67	-1.5	W +0.5	151.5	U 136
Nov 18	@GMU	L 57-79	+16.5	L −5.5	136.5	U 136
Nov 24	vsBCU	W 69-64	+3.5	W +8.5	143.5	U 133
Nov 25	vsPAC	L 53-68	+2.5	L −12.5	135.5	U 121
Dec 2	vsFAMU	W 85-82	-10.5	L −7.5	138.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

L 69-86

+1.5

HPU

L 64-85

−3.5

VMI

W 69-67

+0.5

GMU

L 57-79

−5.5

BCU

W 69-64

+8.5

PAC

L 53-68

−12.5

FAMU

W 85-82

−7.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

L 69-86

+12.5

HPU

L 64-85

−7.5

VMI

W 69-67

−15.5

GMU

L 57-79

−0.5

BCU

W 69-64

−10.5

PAC

L 53-68

−14.5

FAMU

W 85-82

+28.5

over 2under 5avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

FIU

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@NEB	L 66-96	+21.5	L −8.5	156.5	O 162
Nov 13	@LSU	L 81-98	+21.5	W +4.5	158.5	O 179
Nov 24	vsJMU	L 72-80	-2.5	L −10.5	155.5	U 152
Nov 26	vsOMA	W 74-61	-4.5	W +8.5	157.5	U 135
Dec 3	vsFGCU	W 89-83	+1.5	W +7.5	154.5	O 172

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NEB

L 66-96

−8.5

LSU

L 81-98

+4.5

JMU

L 72-80

−10.5

OMA

W 74-61

+8.5

FGCU

W 89-83

+7.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NEB

L 66-96

+5.5

LSU

L 81-98

+20.5

JMU

L 72-80

−3.5

OMA

W 74-61

−22.5

FGCU

W 89-83

+17.5

over 3under 2avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Jacksonville Dolphins at Florida International Panthers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Jacksonville

FIU

Jacksonville

FIU