Florida Gulf Coast Eagles at Florida International Panthers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 3, 7:00 PM ETOcean Bank Convocation Center · at FIU

#266FGCUFGCU83final

Final

#178FIUFIU89▲ winner

Closing lineFGCU -1.5✓ FIU covered by 7.5

Closing total154.5Over by 17.5

Season records: FGCU and FIU
FGCU	This season	FIU
4-3	Record	1-3
3-4	ATS	2-2
5-2	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: FGCU 78–80 FIU · ✓ FIU (56%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
FGCU	38	45	83
FIU	44	45	89

1st half: FGCU 38, FIU 44 (FIU by 6). The model had FIU by 0.8 and a total of 74.1 (actual 82).

Team stats

FGCU		FIU
29-68 43%	Field goals	25-55 45%
7-27 26%	3-pointers	9-24 38%
18-21 86%	Free throws	30-35 86%
39 16 off	Rebounds	32 9 off
25	Assists	16
12	Steals	11
4	Blocks	6
14	Turnovers	13
22	Fouls	15
42	Points in paint	30
19	Fast-break points	23

Players

FGCU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Rahmir Barno G	36	12	1	13	4-12	1-4
J.R. Konieczny F	34	13	7	3	5-12	1-3
Jordan Ellerbee G	27	13	8	3	5-11	1-5
Michael Duax F	22	9	4	1	2-4	1-2
Isaiah Malone F	21	16	10	1	6-9	0-1
Bench
Tristen Guillouette C	18	2	3	2	1-2	0-0
Darren Williams G	16	13	0	0	4-11	2-8
Rory Stewart F	12	2	2	1	1-4	0-2
Gabe Tanner F	10	3	1	0	1-3	1-2
Jack Reddick G	4	0	0	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Matt McCarthy, Chase Konieczny, BB Washington, Evan Barlow, Brandon Dwyer, George Washington III

FIU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Corey Stephenson G	33	18	8	2	5-7	2-3
Eric Dibami C	32	10	5	0	3-5	0-0
Zawdie Jackson G	29	20	2	1	4-9	2-4
Ashton Williamson G	21	6	2	3	3-10	0-3
Hamed Olayinka F	20	10	3	1	3-4	1-1
Bench
Julian Mackey G	26	13	2	4	3-9	1-5
Brit Harris G	24	12	2	3	4-9	3-8
Thiago Sucatzky G	7	0	0	2	0-2	0-0
Ibrahim Olajuwon C	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Kennedy Brown F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jorge Santos, Gvidas Gicevicius, Mikey Kelvin II, Renato Ruiz, Amarion Nimmers

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	FGCU -1.5	FIU -1.6	FIU +3.1	W FIU covered
Total	154.5	158.4	Over 3.9	W Over
Projected score	—	FGCU 78.4 · FIU 80

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	FIU -0.8	FIU -6.0
1H total	74.1	82
1H projected score	FGCU 36.7 · FIU 37.5	FGCU 38 · FIU 44

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FGCU WWLWL	3-4	43%	1-1	1-3
FIU LWLW	2-2	50%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: FGCU away, as favorite; FIU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
FGCU OUOUO	5-2	71%	4-3
FIU OOUU	2-2	50%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FGCUlast 7	4-3 57%	3-4 43%	5-2 71%
FIUlast 4	1-3 25%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

FGCU 3–1 FIUFGCU leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · FGCU has won the last 3 meetings · FGCU 2-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 24, 2024-25	FIU 59 @ FGCU 60	FGCU -4.5	FIU W
Nov 29, 2023-24	FGCU 68 @ FIU 65	FIU -2.5	FGCU W
Dec 4, 2022-23	FIU 65 @ FGCU 74	FGCU -7.5	FGCU W
Dec 1, 2021-22	FGCU 61 @ FIU 77	FIU -3	FIU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

FGCU

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +3.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +14.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

L L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

L L W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O O O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@ILL	L 70-113	+29.5	L −13.5	160.5	O 183
Nov 11	vsGASO	L 94-95	-3.5	L −4.5	163.5	O 189
Nov 15	vsUTC	W 91-73	+1.5	W +19.5	152.5	O 164
Nov 19	@SAM	W 77-62	+5.5	W +20.5	154.5	U 139
Nov 24	vsORU	W 93-88	-11.5	L −6.5	153.5	O 181
Nov 25	vsRICE	W 78-63	-5.5	W +9.5	149.5	U 141
Nov 26	vsKENN	L 100-102	-1.5	L −3.5	160.5	O 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ILL

L 70-113

−13.5

GASO

L 94-95

−4.5

UTC

W 91-73

+19.5

SAM

W 77-62

+20.5

ORU

W 93-88

−6.5

RICE

W 78-63

+9.5

KENN

L 100-102

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ILL

L 70-113

+22.5

GASO

L 94-95

+25.5

UTC

W 91-73

+11.5

SAM

W 77-62

−15.5

ORU

W 93-88

+27.5

RICE

W 78-63

−8.5

KENN

L 100-102

+41.5

over 5under 2avg +14.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

FIU

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg 0 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@NEB	L 66-96	+21.5	L −8.5	156.5	O 162
Nov 13	@LSU	L 81-98	+21.5	W +4.5	158.5	O 179
Nov 24	vsJMU	L 72-80	-2.5	L −10.5	155.5	U 152
Nov 26	vsOMA	W 74-61	-4.5	W +8.5	157.5	U 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NEB

L 66-96

−8.5

LSU

L 81-98

+4.5

JMU

L 72-80

−10.5

OMA

W 74-61

+8.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NEB

L 66-96

+5.5

LSU

L 81-98

+20.5

JMU

L 72-80

−3.5

OMA

W 74-61

−22.5

over 2under 2avg 0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Florida Gulf Coast Eagles at Florida International Panthers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

FGCU

FIU

FGCU

FIU