Tucker Center · at Florida St
Closing line
FSU -23.5✓ FSU covered by 0.5
FSU -23.5✓ FSU covered by 0.5Closing total159.5Under by 9.5
 JAX | This season | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| 3-7 | Record | 6-6 |
| 3-7 | ATS | 6-6 |
| 4-6 | O/U | 5-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: JAX 68–86 FSU · ✓ FSU (95%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | 21 | 42 | 63 |
| FSU | 43 | 44 | 87 |
1st half: JAX 21, FSU 43 (FSU by 22). The model had FSU by 11.2 and a total of 72.1 (actual 64).
Team stats
| JAX | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-60 40% | Field goals | 28-61 46% |
| 5-31 16% | 3-pointers | 11-33 33% |
| 10-14 71% | Free throws | 20-26 77% |
| 28 9 off | Rebounds | 44 16 off |
| 11 | Assists | 19 |
| 6 | Steals | 3 |
| 4 | Blocks | 1 |
| 7 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 22 | Fouls | 17 |
| 26 | Points in paint | 28 |
| 0 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| JAX | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Lockett Jr. G | 35 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 5-10 | 1-4 |
| Hayden Wood G | 28 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 6-12 | 1-4 |
| Evan Sterck G | 24 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1-6 | 1-5 |
| Charles Caporaso C | 19 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Enrico Borio F | 15 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Chris Arias G | 27 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 3-11 | 2-10 |
| Simon Wheeler G | 16 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Donovan Rivers F | 15 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Jason Thirdkill Jr. F | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Allen Udemadu F | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Michael Harper Jr. G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Roman Loux, Lamont Jackson, Anakin Brown, Jaylen Jones, Tito Deng, Jaylen Jordon
| FSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert McCray V G | 30 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 2-7 | 1-2 |
| Martin Somerville G | 29 | 23 | 4 | 2 | 5-10 | 5-10 |
| Chauncey Wiggins F | 28 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 6-12 | 2-7 |
| Lajae Jones G | 26 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 3-5 | 1-3 |
| Alex Steen F | 22 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 5-8 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kobe MaGee G | 21 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Cam Miles G | 20 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 3-10 | 2-6 |
| Thomas Bassong F | 18 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Jalen Crawford G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Alier Maluk F | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Shah Muhammad F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Xavier Osceola, AJ Swinton, Max Garcia-Plata
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenFSU -25.5
2 → JAX
CloseFSU -23.5
2 pts toward JAX
Total
Open156.5
▲ 3
Close159.5
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
JAX +2000 · FSU -6500
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened FSU -25.5 · closed FSU -23.5 · moved 2 toward JAXmodel FSU -19
model FSU -19
Opened 156.5 · closed 159.5 · moved 3 upmodel 154
model 154
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | FSU -23.5 | FSU -18.8 | JAX +4.7 | L FSU covered |
| Total | 159.5 | 153.9 | Under 5.6 | W Under |
| Projected score | — | JAX 67.6 · FSU 86.4 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | FSU -11.2 | FSU -22.0 |
| 1H total | 72.1 | 64 |
| 1H projected score | JAX 30.4 · FSU 41.6 | JAX 21 · FSU 43 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | 3-7 30% | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% |
| FSU | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Jacksonville
10 games played
Straight up
3-7
30% wins
Against the spread
3-7
30% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-6
40% overs · avg +3.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ MIA | L 69-86 | +18.5 | W +1.5 | 142.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 11 | @ HPU | L 64-85 | +17.5 | L −3.5 | 156.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 15 | @ VMI | W 69-67 | -1.5 | W +0.5 | 151.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 18 | @ GMU | L 57-79 | +16.5 | L −5.5 | 136.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 24 | vs BCU | W 69-64 | +3.5 | W +8.5 | 143.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 25 | vs PAC | L 53-68 | +2.5 | L −12.5 | 135.5 | U 121 |
| Dec 2 | vs FAMU | W 85-82 | -10.5 | L −7.5 | 138.5 | O 167 |
| Dec 6 | @ FIU | L 65-88 | +5.5 | L −17.5 | 145.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 14 | @ TA&M | L 75-112 | +26.5 | L −10.5 | 147.5 | O 187 |
| Dec 17 | @FAMU | L 65-72 | -3.5 | L −10.5 | 139.5 | U 137 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@MIA
MIAL 69-86
+1.5
11
@HPU
HPUL 64-85
−3.5
15
@VMI
VMIW 69-67
+0.5
18
@GMU
GMUL 57-79
−5.5
24
vsBCU
BCUW 69-64
+8.5
25
vsPAC
PACL 53-68
−12.5
2
vsFAMU
FAMUW 85-82
−7.5
6
@FIU
FIUL 65-88
−17.5
14
@TA&M
TA&ML 75-112
−10.5
17
@FAMU
FAMUL 65-72
−10.5
covered 3didn’t cover 7avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@MIA
MIAL 69-86
+12.5
11
@HPU
HPUL 64-85
−7.5
15
@VMI
VMIW 69-67
−15.5
18
@GMU
GMUL 57-79
−0.5
24
vsBCU
BCUW 69-64
−10.5
25
vsPAC
PACL 53-68
−14.5
2
vsFAMU
FAMUW 85-82
+28.5
6
@FIU
FIUL 65-88
+7.5
14
@TA&M
TA&ML 75-112
+39.5
17
@FAMU
FAMUL 65-72
−2.5
over 4under 6avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Florida St
12 games played
Straight up
6-6
50% wins
Against the spread
6-6
50% covers · avg −6.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-7
42% overs · avg −1.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs ALCN | W 108-76 | -27.5 | W +4.5 | 156.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 7 | vs ALST | W 101-64 | -24.5 | W +12.5 | 166.5 | U 165 |
| Nov 11 | @ FLA | L 76-78 | +17.5 | W +15.5 | 180.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 18 | vs UTM | W 87-73 | -19.5 | L −5.5 | 165.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 21 | vs GASO | W 98-72 | -18.5 | W +7.5 | 175.5 | U 170 |
| Nov 25 | vs CSUB | W 89-59 | -26.5 | W +3.5 | 159.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 28 | vsTA&M | L 59-95 | -1.5 | L −37.5 | 174.5 | U 154 |
| Dec 2 | vs UGA | L 73-107 | -1.5 | L −35.5 | 176.5 | O 180 |
| Dec 6 | vs HOU | L 67-82 | +12.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 13 | vs MASS | L 95-103 | -12.5 | L −20.5 | 165.5 | O 198 |
| Dec 16 | @ DAY | L 69-97 | +6.5 | L −21.5 | 162.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 19 | vs MVSU | W 96-49 | -40.5 | W +6.5 | 164.5 | U 145 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsALCN
ALCNW 108-76
+4.5
7
vsALST
ALSTW 101-64
+12.5
11
@FLA
FLAL 76-78
+15.5
18
vsUTM
UTMW 87-73
−5.5
21
vsGASO
GASOW 98-72
+7.5
25
vsCSUB
CSUBW 89-59
+3.5
28
vsTA&M
TA&ML 59-95
−37.5
2
vsUGA
UGAL 73-107
−35.5
6
vsHOU
HOUL 67-82
−2.5
13
vsMASS
MASSL 95-103
−20.5
16
@DAY
DAYL 69-97
−21.5
19
vsMVSU
MVSUW 96-49
+6.5
covered 6didn’t cover 6avg −6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsALCN
ALCNW 108-76
+27.5
7
vsALST
ALSTW 101-64
−1.5
11
@FLA
FLAL 76-78
−26.5
18
vsUTM
UTMW 87-73
−5.5
21
vsGASO
GASOW 98-72
−5.5
25
vsCSUB
CSUBW 89-59
−11.5
28
vsTA&M
TA&ML 59-95
−20.5
2
vsUGA
UGAL 73-107
+3.5
6
vsHOU
HOUL 67-82
+0.5
13
vsMASS
MASSL 95-103
+32.5
16
@DAY
DAYL 69-97
+3.5
19
vsMVSU
MVSUW 96-49
−19.5
over 5under 7avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Jacksonville
3-7 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Florida A&M65–72
- L@ Texas A&M75–112
- L@ FIU65–88
- Wvs Florida A&M85–82
- Lvs Pacific53–68
5 days since their last game.
Florida St
6-6 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Miss Valley St96–49
- L@ Dayton69–97
- Lvs UMass95–103
- Lvs Houston67–82
- Lvs Georgia73–107
3 days since their last game.