Jackson State Tigers at Winthrop Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 14, 2:30 PM ETWinthrop Coliseum · at Winthrop

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Jackson St and Winthrop
JKST	This season	WIN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WIN 84–74 · win probability WIN 80%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 157.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WIN has more of the edges

JKST 2, WIN 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

WINBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: JKST 29.7%, WIN 34.1%. Defensive: JKST 62.8%, WIN 72.3%

WINBig

WIN offense vs JKST defense

Offense 135th of 366 against a defense 325th, on the model’s ratings

WINBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: JKST 19.4%, WIN 14.7%. Forced: JKST 16.5%, WIN 16.6%

JKSTBig

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: JKST 76%, WIN 13%. Transfers in: JKST 2, WIN 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

WINSmall

Three-pointers

JKST hits 31.4% and allows 34.8%; WIN hits 33.2% and allows 32.9%. Threes are 43.3% and 44.1% of their shots

WINSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: JKST 45.7 and allows 53.0; WIN 49.7 and allows 51.5

WINSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: JKST 37.4, WIN 44.0. Allowed: JKST 41.9, WIN 39.0

JKSTSmall

JKST offense vs WIN defense

Offense 229th of 366 against a defense 298th, on the model’s ratings

WINSmall

Home court

WIN at home. This season: WIN 0-0 at home, JKST 0-0 away

Context

Schedule so far

JKST has played the 239th-hardest schedule, WIN the 206th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 72 possessions: JKST plays 71.6 a game (50th fastest), WIN 72.0 (35th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	WIN -9.7	—
Total	—	157.6	—
Projected score	—	JKST 74 · WIN 83.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WIN -5.6	—
1H total	73.6	—
1H projected score	JKST 34 · WIN 39.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JKST LWLWL	14-19	42%	6-13	—
WIN LLLLL	12-19	39%	4-7	—

Venue/role: JKST away; WIN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
JKST UOOUU	16-17	48%	12-21
WIN OUOUO	15-16	48%	20-11

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JKST	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
WIN	7-3 70%	1-9 10%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Jackson St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	@ BAY	No recent meeting
Nov 25	@ OKST	No recent meeting
Dec 2	@ MEM	L77–94WO

Winthrop

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	vs UTC	No recent meeting
Nov 21	@ WOF	No recent meeting
Nov 23	@ ILL	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

JKST 0–1 WINWIN leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · JKST 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 23, 2025-26	WIN 80 @ JKST 62	JKST +10.5	WIN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Jackson St

33 games played

Straight up

12-21

36% wins

Against the spread

14-19

42% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-17

48% overs · avg +4.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-2136%

L L L L L L W L L L L L L W W L W W L W L L W L W W L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1942%

L W L L L L W W L L W L L L W L W W L W L W W L W W L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1748%

O O U O O U U O U U O O O O U O U O U U U O O U U O U U U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@ILL	L 55-113	+28.5	L −29.5	157.5	O 168
Nov 6	@LOU	L 70-106	+38.5	W +2.5	165.5	O 176
Nov 15	@LT	L 51-68	+8.5	L −8.5	146.5	U 119
Nov 19	@AUB	L 66-112	+30.5	L −15.5	156.5	O 178
Nov 21	@ARK	L 61-115	+29.5	L −24.5	159.5	O 176
Nov 23	vsWIN	L 62-80	+10.5	L −7.5	163.5	U 142
Nov 28	@UL	W 51-45	+5.5	W +11.5	136.5	U 96
Dec 2	@KENN	L 73-88	+15.5	W +0.5	157.5	O 161
Dec 10	@HOU	L 38-80	+40.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 118
Dec 13	@NU	L 53-93	+30.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 146
Dec 18	vsHAMP	L 77-84	+8.5	W +1.5	135.5	O 161
Dec 19	vsNORF	L 72-82	+5.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 154
Dec 29	@TCU	L 64-115	+30.5	L −20.5	143.5	O 179
Jan 3	vsALCN	W 89-86	-5.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 175
Jan 10	@ALST	W 75-64	+7.5	W +18.5	153.5	U 139
Jan 12	@AAMU	L 91-100	+6.5	L −2.5	140.5	O 191
Jan 17	vsPV	W 82-78	-1.5	W +2.5	160.5	U 160
Jan 19	vsTXSO	W 94-89	-2.5	W +2.5	153.5	O 183
Jan 24	@BCU	L 48-85	+8.5	L −28.5	156.5	U 133
Jan 26	@FAMU	W 66-65	+7.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 131
Jan 31	vsGRAM	L 66-69	+2.5	L −0.5	148.5	U 135
Feb 2	vsSOU	L 91-96	+5.5	W +0.5	152.5	O 187
Feb 7	@MVSU	W 97-81	-8.5	W +7.5	143.5	O 178
Feb 9	@UAPB	L 63-84	+7.5	L −13.5	155.5	U 147
Feb 14	vsFAMU	W 80-60	+2.5	W +22.5	144.5	U 140
Feb 16	vsBCU	W 91-86	+4.5	W +9.5	150.5	O 177
Feb 21	@ALCN	L 65-83	-1.5	L −19.5	149.5	U 148
Feb 26	@PV	L 76-85	+3.5	L −5.5	161.5	U 161
Feb 28	@TXSO	L 57-82	+6.5	L −18.5	152.5	U 139
Mar 3	vsUAPB	W 81-78	+1.5	W +4.5	153.5	O 159
Mar 5	vsMVSU	W 85-77	-11.5	L −3.5	144.5	O 162
Mar 10	vsGRAM	W 68-65	+7.5	W +10.5	139.5	U 133
Mar 11	vsFAMU	L 60-70	+6.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ILL

L 55-113

−29.5

LOU

L 70-106

+2.5

L 51-68

−8.5

AUB

L 66-112

−15.5

ARK

L 61-115

−24.5

WIN

L 62-80

−7.5

W 51-45

+11.5

KENN

L 73-88

+0.5

HOU

L 38-80

−1.5

L 53-93

−9.5

HAMP

L 77-84

+1.5

NORF

L 72-82

−4.5

TCU

L 64-115

−20.5

ALCN

W 89-86

−2.5

ALST

W 75-64

+18.5

AAMU

L 91-100

−2.5

W 82-78

+2.5

TXSO

W 94-89

+2.5

BCU

L 48-85

−28.5

FAMU

W 66-65

+8.5

GRAM

L 66-69

−0.5

SOU

L 91-96

+0.5

MVSU

W 97-81

+7.5

UAPB

L 63-84

−13.5

FAMU

W 80-60

+22.5

BCU

W 91-86

+9.5

ALCN

L 65-83

−19.5

L 76-85

−5.5

TXSO

L 57-82

−18.5

UAPB

W 81-78

+4.5

MVSU

W 85-77

−3.5

GRAM

W 68-65

+10.5

FAMU

L 60-70

−3.5

covered 14didn’t cover 19avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ILL

L 55-113

+10.5

LOU

L 70-106

+10.5

L 51-68

−27.5

AUB

L 66-112

+21.5

ARK

L 61-115

+16.5

WIN

L 62-80

−21.5

W 51-45

−40.5

KENN

L 73-88

+3.5

HOU

L 38-80

−19.5

L 53-93

−0.5

HAMP

L 77-84

+25.5

NORF

L 72-82

+13.5

TCU

L 64-115

+35.5

ALCN

W 89-86

+29.5

ALST

W 75-64

−14.5

AAMU

L 91-100

+50.5

W 82-78

−0.5

TXSO

W 94-89

+29.5

BCU

L 48-85

−23.5

FAMU

W 66-65

−19.5

GRAM

L 66-69

−13.5

SOU

L 91-96

+34.5

MVSU

W 97-81

+34.5

UAPB

L 63-84

−8.5

FAMU

W 80-60

−4.5

BCU

W 91-86

+26.5

ALCN

L 65-83

−1.5

L 76-85

−0.5

TXSO

L 57-82

−13.5

UAPB

W 81-78

+5.5

MVSU

W 85-77

+17.5

GRAM

W 68-65

−6.5

FAMU

L 60-70

−11.5

over 16under 17avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Winthrop

31 games played

Straight up

20-11

65% wins

Against the spread

12-19

39% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-16

48% overs · avg +0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1165%

W L L W L W L W W L L L L W W W W W W W W W W W W L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

12-1939%

W W L W W W W W L L L L L L L W W L L W W L L L L W L L L L L

5 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1648%

U O U O U U U O O O O U U O U U O U U O O U U O U O O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsQUC	W 81-74	-3.5	W +3.5	163.5	U 155
Nov 7	@GMU	L 90-96	+9.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 186
Nov 11	@CCU	L 66-72	-2.5	L −8.5	165.5	U 138
Nov 15	vsMER	W 105-69	-2.5	W +33.5	162.5	O 174
Nov 18	@ARK	L 83-84	+23.5	W +22.5	168.5	U 167
Nov 23	@JKST	W 80-62	-10.5	W +7.5	163.5	U 142
Nov 25	@NEB	L 73-80	+14.5	W +7.5	166.5	U 153
Nov 29	vsSCST	W 101-79	-20.5	W +1.5	157.5	O 180
Dec 2	@LIU	W 94-92	-5.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 186
Dec 6	vsCCU	L 84-88	-16.5	L −20.5	153.5	O 172
Dec 18	@UND	L 88-90	-12.5	L −14.5	157.5	O 178
Dec 28	@TTU	L 57-87	+17.5	L −12.5	163.5	U 144
Dec 31	@LONG	L 70-82	-7.5	L −19.5	161.5	U 152
Jan 3	vsGWEB	W 88-77	-23.5	L −12.5	164.5	O 165
Jan 7	vsCHSO	W 81-77	-8.5	L −4.5	166.5	U 158
Jan 10	@UPST	W 71-50	-5.5	W +15.5	157.5	U 121
Jan 14	vsHPU	W 92-75	+2.5	W +19.5	162.5	O 167
Jan 17	@UNCA	W 69-67	-5.5	L −3.5	152.5	U 136
Jan 21	vsRAD	W 76-75	-9.5	L −8.5	165.5	U 151
Jan 24	@PRES	W 82-72	-5.5	W +4.5	146.5	O 154
Jan 31	vsUNCA	W 84-71	-9.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 155
Feb 4	@RAD	W 80-78	-4.5	L −2.5	161.5	U 158
Feb 7	vsLONG	W 79-74	-10.5	L −5.5	153.5	U 153
Feb 12	@GWEB	W 103-85	-20.5	L −2.5	156.5	O 188
Feb 19	vsUPST	W 68-64	-13.5	L −9.5	158.5	U 132
Feb 21	@HPU	L 87-89	+9.5	W +7.5	166.5	O 176
Feb 26	@CHSO	L 84-86	-8.5	L −10.5	164.5	O 170
Feb 28	vsPRES	W 74-70	-7.5	L −3.5	150.5	U 144
Mar 6	vsCHSO	W 86-81	-6.5	L −1.5	164.5	O 167
Mar 7	vsPRES	W 73-71	-7.5	L −5.5	145.5	U 144
Mar 8	vsHPU	L 76-91	+6.5	L −8.5	157.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

QUC

W 81-74

+3.5

GMU

L 90-96

+3.5

CCU

L 66-72

−8.5

MER

W 105-69

+33.5

ARK

L 83-84

+22.5

JKST

W 80-62

+7.5

NEB

L 73-80

+7.5

SCST

W 101-79

+1.5

LIU

W 94-92

−3.5

CCU

L 84-88

−20.5

UND

L 88-90

−14.5

TTU

L 57-87

−12.5

LONG

L 70-82

−19.5

GWEB

W 88-77

−12.5

CHSO

W 81-77

−4.5

UPST

W 71-50

+15.5

HPU

W 92-75

+19.5

UNCA

W 69-67

−3.5

RAD

W 76-75

−8.5

PRES

W 82-72

+4.5

UNCA

W 84-71

+3.5

RAD

W 80-78

−2.5

LONG

W 79-74

−5.5

GWEB

W 103-85

−2.5

UPST

W 68-64

−9.5

HPU

L 87-89

+7.5

CHSO

L 84-86

−10.5

PRES

W 74-70

−3.5

CHSO

W 86-81

−1.5

PRES

W 73-71

−5.5

HPU

L 76-91

−8.5

covered 12didn’t cover 19avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

QUC

W 81-74

−8.5

GMU

L 90-96

+39.5

CCU

L 66-72

−27.5

MER

W 105-69

+11.5

ARK

L 83-84

−1.5

JKST

W 80-62

−21.5

NEB

L 73-80

−13.5

SCST

W 101-79

+22.5

LIU

W 94-92

+32.5

CCU

L 84-88

+18.5

UND

L 88-90

+20.5

TTU

L 57-87

−19.5

LONG

L 70-82

−9.5

GWEB

W 88-77

+0.5

CHSO

W 81-77

−8.5

UPST

W 71-50

−36.5

HPU

W 92-75

+4.5

UNCA

W 69-67

−16.5

RAD

W 76-75

−14.5

PRES

W 82-72

+7.5

UNCA

W 84-71

+7.5

RAD

W 80-78

−3.5

LONG

W 79-74

−0.5

GWEB

W 103-85

+31.5

UPST

W 68-64

−26.5

HPU

L 87-89

+9.5

CHSO

L 84-86

+5.5

PRES

W 74-70

−6.5

CHSO

W 86-81

+2.5

PRES

W 73-71

−1.5

HPU

L 76-91

+9.5

over 15under 16avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Jackson St 1, Winthrop 1, even 3

Jackson StBetterWinthrop

G D. Ruffin23.3 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 98

JKSTBig

G M. Davis TR9.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.9 ast Score 12

G D. McMillian11.9 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 37

Even

G S. Sims TR9.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 30

G M. Williams5.5 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked

No call

G A. Smith TR7.6 pts · 2 reb · 2.1 ast Score 60

G T. Hoover5.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.3 ast Score 23

Even

G S. Hendawy5.2 pts · 4 reb · 1 ast Score 30

G D. Williams2.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.3 ast Score 5

WINBig

F G. Natsvlishvili TR7.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 1 ast Score 43

Jackson StBetterWinthrop

JKST offense229th of 366 · -7.0

JKSTSmall

WIN defense298th of 366 · -7.6

JKST defense325th of 366 · -8.4

WINBig

WIN offense135th of 366 · -3.9

Backcourt-2.6 · 5 players

JKSTBig

Backcourt-5.8 · 4 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt-0.5 · 1 player

Bench-5.7 · 5 players

WINBig

Bench-1.7 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestJKST betterWIN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Jackson St

Guards

D. Ruffin34 minD. McMillian30 minM. Williams20 minT. Hoover20 minD. Williams17 minC. Brunt11 min · TR

Forwards

K. Butler10 minD. Kolev8 minN. WilliamsNewT. LawsonNew

Centers

E. Wilson11 minJ. Williams8 min · TR

Winthrop

Guards

M. Davis26 min · TRS. Sims25 min · TRA. Smith18 min · TRS. Hendawy16 minK. Fisher11 min · TRH. Harrison2 min

Forwards

G. Natsvlishvili20 min · TRT. Hamilton7 minT. HarrisNewJ. CwikNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

JKST70.2 #281

WIN81.5 #40

Points per possession

JKST0.98 #341

WIN1.13 #79

Pace (possessions)

JKST71.6 #50

WIN72.0 #35

Shooting

Effective FG%

JKST45.7 #354

WIN49.7 #250

3-point %

JKST31.4 #311

WIN33.2 #217

3-point attempt rate

JKST43.3 #105

WIN44.1 #88

Free throw rate

JKST37.4 #117

WIN44.0 #10

Possessions

Turnover rate

JKST19.4 #337

WIN14.7 #52

Offensive rebound rate

JKST29.7 #215

WIN34.1 #63

Assists per game

JKST10.4 #352

WIN13.6 #177

Defense

Points allowed

JKST83.8 #354

WIN77.7 #261

Points allowed per possession

JKST1.17 #344

WIN1.08 #154

Opponent effective FG%

JKST53.0 #267

WIN51.5 #182

Opponent 3-point %

JKST34.8 #236

WIN32.9 #113

Turnovers forced

JKST16.5 #189

WIN16.6 #174

Defensive rebound rate

JKST62.8 #359

WIN72.3 #55

Steals per game

JKST6.3 #205

WIN6.6 #161

Blocks per game

JKST3.0 #226

WIN2.7 #281

JKST		WIN
Scoring
70.2 #281	Points per game	81.5 #40
0.98 #341	Points per possession	1.13 #79
71.6 #50	Pace (possessions)	72.0 #35
Shooting
45.7 #354	Effective FG%	49.7 #250
31.4 #311	3-point %	33.2 #217
43.3 #105	3-point attempt rate	44.1 #88
37.4 #117	Free throw rate	44.0 #10
Possessions
19.4 #337	Turnover rate	14.7 #52
29.7 #215	Offensive rebound rate	34.1 #63
10.4 #352	Assists per game	13.6 #177
Defense
83.8 #354	Points allowed	77.7 #261
1.17 #344	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #154
53.0 #267	Opponent effective FG%	51.5 #182
34.8 #236	Opponent 3-point %	32.9 #113
16.5 #189	Turnovers forced	16.6 #174
62.8 #359	Defensive rebound rate	72.3 #55
6.3 #205	Steals per game	6.6 #161
3.0 #226	Blocks per game	2.7 #281

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Jackson St

12-21 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Florida A&M60–70
Wvs Grambling68–65
Wvs Miss Valley St85–77
Wvs AR-Pine Bluff81–78
L@ Texas Southern57–82

A week or more of rest.

Winthrop

20-11 in 2025-26 overall · 15-4 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs High Point76–91
Wvs Presbyterian73–71
Wvs Charleston So86–81
Wvs Presbyterian74–70
L@ Charleston So84–86

A week or more of rest.

Jackson State Tigers at Winthrop Eagles

What could decide it: WIN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Jackson St

Winthrop

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Jackson St

Winthrop