Jackson State Tigers at Alabama State Hornets: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 10, 4:00 PM ETDunn-Oliver Acadome · at Alabama St · Conference game

#280JKSTJackson St75▲ winner

Final

#302ALSTAlabama St64final

Closing lineALST -7.5✓ JKST covered by 18.5

Closing total153.5Under by 14.5

Season records: Jackson St and Alabama St
JKST	This season	ALST
2-12	Record	3-11
4-10	ATS	6-8
9-5	O/U	7-7

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: JKST 74–81 ALST · ✗ ALST (73%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
JKST	37	38	75
ALST	27	37	64

1st half: JKST 37, ALST 27 (JKST by 10). The model had ALST by 4.0 and a total of 72.4 (actual 64).

Team stats

JKST		ALST
21-58 36%	Field goals	24-73 33%
5-19 26%	3-pointers	2-22 9%
28-32 88%	Free throws	14-21 67%
41 13 off	Rebounds	52 26 off
9	Assists	8
10	Steals	8
3	Blocks	5
15	Turnovers	19
17	Fouls	22
30	Points in paint	42
16	Fast-break points	13

Players

JKST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Daeshun Ruffin G	37	36	9	5	9-20	0-3
Dorian McMillian G	34	4	5	1	1-7	1-2
Jayme Mitchell Jr. G	29	12	3	1	3-9	0-4
Devin Ree F	28	2	3	0	1-5	0-2
Dionjahe Thomas F	19	2	10	1	1-5	0-0
Bench
Tamarion Hoover G	20	16	1	0	5-9	4-8
Raevon Thomas F	17	2	2	0	1-2	0-0
Delyle Williams G	15	1	2	1	0-1	0-0
Kobe Butler F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jalen Tatum, Ebo Wilson, Kedrick Simmons, Deyan Kolev, Mike Williams, Cael Jones, Keiveon Hunt

ALST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Asjon Anderson G	38	16	6	1	4-18	2-9
Jerquarius Stanback F	27	9	6	1	4-5	0-1
Micah Simpson G	27	0	5	4	0-13	0-6
Cameron Palesse G	26	0	4	0	0-3	0-1
R'Chaun King F	13	7	7	0	2-5	0-0
Bench
Tyler Byrd G	29	18	2	0	7-17	0-4
Damarien Yates F	27	12	11	2	6-10	0-1
Mario Andrews C	12	2	7	0	1-2	0-0
Tyler Mason F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Kevin Alabi, Jordon Marshall, Tyler Mack, Damarion Bonds, Damion Cox Jr., Trey Miller, JaSteven Walker

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	ALST -7.5	ALST -6.8	JKST +0.7	W JKST covered
Total	153.5	154.7	Over 1.2	L Under
Projected score	—	JKST 73.9 · ALST 80.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ALST -4.0	JKST -10.0
1H total	72.4	64
1H projected score	JKST 34.2 · ALST 38.2	JKST 37 · ALST 27

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JKST LWLLL	4-10	29%	3-7	4-9
ALST LLLWL	6-8	43%	—	1-1

Venue/role: JKST away, as underdog; ALST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
JKST UOOOO	9-5	64%	2-12
ALST UOUOO	7-7	50%	3-11

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JKST	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
ALST	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

JKST 3–2 ALSTJKST leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · JKST 2-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 15, 2024-25	ALST 60 vs JKST 56	JKST -2.5	ALST W
Jan 11, 2024-25	ALST 70 @ JKST 77	JKST -2.5	JKST W
Jan 11, 2023-24	JKST 73 @ ALST 63	ALST +1.5	JKST W
Jan 7, 2022-23	ALST 58 @ JKST 61	JKST -7.5	ALST W
Jan 8, 2021-22	JKST 57 @ ALST 72	ALST +3	ALST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Jackson St

14 games played

Straight up

2-12

14% wins

Against the spread

4-10

29% covers · avg −7.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-5

64% overs · avg +4.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-1214%

L L L L L L W L L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-1029%

L W L L L L W W L L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

9-564%

O O U O O U U O U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@ILL	L 55-113	+28.5	L −29.5	157.5	O 168
Nov 6	@LOU	L 70-106	+38.5	W +2.5	165.5	O 176
Nov 15	@LT	L 51-68	+8.5	L −8.5	146.5	U 119
Nov 19	@AUB	L 66-112	+30.5	L −15.5	156.5	O 178
Nov 21	@ARK	L 61-115	+29.5	L −24.5	159.5	O 176
Nov 23	vsWIN	L 62-80	+10.5	L −7.5	163.5	U 142
Nov 28	@UL	W 51-45	+5.5	W +11.5	136.5	U 96
Dec 2	@KENN	L 73-88	+15.5	W +0.5	157.5	O 161
Dec 10	@HOU	L 38-80	+40.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 118
Dec 13	@NU	L 53-93	+30.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 146
Dec 18	vsHAMP	L 77-84	+8.5	W +1.5	135.5	O 161
Dec 19	vsNORF	L 72-82	+5.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 154
Dec 29	@TCU	L 64-115	+30.5	L −20.5	143.5	O 179
Jan 3	vsALCN	W 89-86	-5.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 175

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ILL

L 55-113

−29.5

LOU

L 70-106

+2.5

L 51-68

−8.5

AUB

L 66-112

−15.5

ARK

L 61-115

−24.5

WIN

L 62-80

−7.5

W 51-45

+11.5

KENN

L 73-88

+0.5

HOU

L 38-80

−1.5

L 53-93

−9.5

HAMP

L 77-84

+1.5

NORF

L 72-82

−4.5

TCU

L 64-115

−20.5

ALCN

W 89-86

−2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 10avg −7.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ILL

L 55-113

+10.5

LOU

L 70-106

+10.5

L 51-68

−27.5

AUB

L 66-112

+21.5

ARK

L 61-115

+16.5

WIN

L 62-80

−21.5

W 51-45

−40.5

KENN

L 73-88

+3.5

HOU

L 38-80

−19.5

L 53-93

−0.5

HAMP

L 77-84

+25.5

NORF

L 72-82

+13.5

TCU

L 64-115

+35.5

ALCN

W 89-86

+29.5

over 9under 5avg +4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Alabama St

14 games played

Straight up

3-11

21% wins

Against the spread

6-8

43% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-7

50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-1121%

L W L L W L L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-843%

L W L W W L W L W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-750%

U U O U U O O U O U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@FSU	L 64-101	+24.5	L −12.5	166.5	U 165
Nov 11	@UAB	W 77-74	+19.5	W +22.5	164.5	U 151
Nov 17	@COLO	L 66-94	+22.5	L −5.5	156.5	O 160
Nov 19	@AF	L 64-66	+2.5	W +0.5	138.5	U 130
Nov 21	vsIUIN	W 101-80	+2.5	W +23.5	181.5	U 181
Nov 23	vsSIUE	L 68-83	+1.5	L −13.5	142.5	O 151
Nov 26	@UNM	L 87-93	+19.5	W +13.5	148.5	O 180
Dec 7	@UTM	L 64-74	+6.5	L −3.5	144.5	U 138
Dec 11	@MIZ	L 77-85	+26.5	W +18.5	155.5	O 162
Dec 17	@CIN	L 51-88	+21.5	L −15.5	145.5	U 139
Dec 22	@MEM	L 67-88	+20.5	L −0.5	151.5	O 155
Dec 29	@MSST	L 56-94	+17.5	L −20.5	154.5	U 150
Jan 3	@MVSU	W 89-69	-13.5	W +6.5	144.5	O 158
Jan 5	@UAPB	L 79-90	-1.5	L −12.5	159.5	O 169

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FSU

L 64-101

−12.5

UAB

W 77-74

+22.5

COLO

L 66-94

−5.5

L 64-66

+0.5

IUIN

W 101-80

+23.5

SIUE

L 68-83

−13.5

UNM

L 87-93

+13.5

UTM

L 64-74

−3.5

MIZ

L 77-85

+18.5

CIN

L 51-88

−15.5

MEM

L 67-88

−0.5

MSST

L 56-94

−20.5

MVSU

W 89-69

+6.5

UAPB

L 79-90

−12.5

covered 6didn’t cover 8avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FSU

L 64-101

−1.5

UAB

W 77-74

−13.5

COLO

L 66-94

+3.5

L 64-66

−8.5

IUIN

W 101-80

−0.5

SIUE

L 68-83

+8.5

UNM

L 87-93

+31.5

UTM

L 64-74

−6.5

MIZ

L 77-85

+6.5

CIN

L 51-88

−6.5

MEM

L 67-88

+3.5

MSST

L 56-94

−4.5

MVSU

W 89-69

+13.5

UAPB

L 79-90

+9.5

over 7under 7avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Jackson State Tigers at Alabama State Hornets

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Jackson St

Alabama St

Jackson St

Alabama St