1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 18
  3. UTC @ WIN
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 18

Chattanooga Mocs at Winthrop Eagles

Winthrop Coliseum · at Winthrop
#226UTCChattanooga
@
#205WINWinthrop
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UTCThis seasonWIN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WIN 81–75 · win probability WIN 71%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 155.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WIN has more of the edges

UTC 2, WIN 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
WINBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UTC 21.8%, WIN 34.1%. Defensive: UTC 68.3%, WIN 72.3%
WINBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: UTC 29.7, WIN 44.0. Allowed: UTC 42.6, WIN 39.0
WINBig
WIN offense vs UTC defense
Offense 135th of 366 against a defense 270th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: UTC plays 67.6 a game (249th fastest), WIN 72.0 (35th). Faster games mean more points
UTCSmall
UTC offense vs WIN defense
Offense 193rd of 366 against a defense 298th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
UTC has played the 306th-hardest schedule, WIN the 206th. A record against a soft schedule means less
UTCSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UTC 54.2 and allows 51.7; WIN 49.7 and allows 51.5
WINSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UTC 14.5%, WIN 14.7%. Forced: UTC 13.1%, WIN 16.6%
WINSmall
Home court
WIN at home. This season: WIN 0-0 at home, UTC 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UTC 32%, WIN 13%. Transfers in: UTC 2, WIN 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Three-pointers
UTC hits 35.0% and allows 34.2%; WIN hits 33.2% and allows 32.9%. Threes are 49.2% and 44.1% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—WIN -6.3—
Total—155.8—
Projected score—UTC 74.8 · WIN 81

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadWIN -3.6—
1H total72.8—
1H projected scoreUTC 34.6 · WIN 38.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Chattanooga 1, Winthrop 1, even 3
ChattanoogaBetterWinthrop
G T. Darner9.8 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.8 ast Score 49
UTCBig
G M. Davis TR9.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.9 ast Score 12
G S. Cusano2.5 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked
No call
G S. Sims TR9.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 30
F T. Houser TR14.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.8 ast Score 68
Even
G A. Smith TR7.6 pts · 2 reb · 2.1 ast Score 60
F Y. Levy TR5 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.7 ast Score 18
Even
G S. Hendawy5.2 pts · 4 reb · 1 ast Score 30
F J. Bowman3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 22
WINSmall
F G. Natsvlishvili TR7.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 1 ast Score 43
ChattanoogaBetterWinthrop
UTC offense193rd of 366 · -5.9
UTCSmall
WIN defense298th of 366 · -7.6
UTC defense270th of 366 · -6.8
WINBig
WIN offense135th of 366 · -3.9
Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players
UTCBig
Backcourt-5.8 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.6 · 3 players
WINSmall
Frontcourt-0.5 · 1 player
Bench-1.1 · 1 player
Even
Bench-1.7 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestUTC betterWIN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Chattanooga
Guards
T. Darner29 minS. Cusano13 minH. Holland11 minL. VittersNewM. HamptonNewT. PowellNew
Forwards
T. Houser33 min · TRY. Levy21 min · TRJ. Bowman12 minA. SwiftNewC. HardawayNew
Centers
J. FleemanNew
Winthrop
Guards
M. Davis26 min · TRS. Sims25 min · TRA. Smith18 min · TRS. Hendawy16 minK. Fisher11 min · TRH. Harrison2 min
Forwards
G. Natsvlishvili20 min · TRT. Hamilton7 minT. HarrisNewJ. CwikNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UTCWIN
Scoring
74.1 #192Points per game81.5 #40
1.10 #132Points per possession1.13 #79
67.6 #249Pace (possessions)72.0 #35
Shooting
54.2 #60Effective FG%49.7 #250
35.0 #1163-point %33.2 #217
49.2 #183-point attempt rate44.1 #88
29.7 #319Free throw rate44.0 #10
Possessions
14.5 #40Turnover rate14.7 #52
21.8 #358Offensive rebound rate34.1 #63
14.3 #127Assists per game13.6 #177
Defense
78.1 #269Points allowed77.7 #261
1.15 #325Points allowed per possession1.08 #154
51.7 #195Opponent effective FG%51.5 #182
34.2 #195Opponent 3-point %32.9 #113
13.1 #351Turnovers forced16.6 #174
68.3 #240Defensive rebound rate72.3 #55
5.0 #336Steals per game6.6 #161
2.5 #305Blocks per game2.7 #281
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Chattanooga

10-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs The Citadel85–88
  • Wvs VMI86–79
  • Lvs UNC Greensboro80–85
  • W@ The Citadel93–72
  • W@ Mercer94–90

A week or more of rest.

Winthrop

20-11 in 2025-26 overall · 15-4 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs High Point76–91
  • Wvs Presbyterian73–71
  • Wvs Charleston So86–81
  • Wvs Presbyterian74–70
  • L@ Charleston So84–86

A week or more of rest.