South Carolina State Bulldogs at Winthrop Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 29, 4:00 PM ETWinthrop Coliseum · at Winthrop

#353SCSTSC State79final

Final

#205WINWinthrop101▲ winner

Closing lineWIN -20.5✓ WIN covered by 1.5

Closing total157.5Over by 22.5

Season records: SC State and Winthrop
SCST	This season	WIN
0-7	Record	3-4
3-4	ATS	6-1
2-5	O/U	2-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SCST 68–88 WIN · ✓ WIN (96%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SCST	36	43	79
WIN	45	56	101

1st half: SCST 36, WIN 45 (WIN by 9). The model had WIN by 11.8 and a total of 72.9 (actual 81).

Team stats

SCST		WIN
31-63 49%	Field goals	38-68 56%
9-21 43%	3-pointers	12-32 38%
8-12 67%	Free throws	13-15 87%
26 10 off	Rebounds	40 15 off
15	Assists	23
10	Steals	11
5	Blocks	4
14	Turnovers	14
19	Fouls	19
30	Points in paint	52
15	Fast-break points	18

Players

SCST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Florian Tenebay G	28	9	3	4	4-9	1-2
Rayniel Wright G	23	6	4	6	3-6	0-0
Obie Bronston Jr. G	23	14	3	1	5-14	2-7
Teon Tindal F	23	3	1	0	1-3	0-0
Cameron Clark F	13	4	3	0	2-4	0-0
Bench
Chris Parker F	29	13	4	1	5-10	1-2
Noah Treadwell G	24	17	0	1	5-7	4-6
Jayden Johnson G	24	11	0	2	5-9	1-4
Tim Okojie C	13	2	1	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Jamal Miles, D'Shay Knights Wright, Derwin Hodge Jr., Colin McKenzie, James Morrow

WIN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Logan Duncomb C	26	19	9	0	8-11	0-0
Kareem Rozier G	26	15	3	6	5-9	3-6
Kody Clouet G	24	21	5	2	8-13	5-9
Tommy Kamarad F	22	19	3	0	7-9	2-3
Isaiah Wilson G	10	2	1	3	0-1	0-1
Bench
Josh Meo G	22	6	2	3	3-4	0-1
Seifeldin Hendawy G	20	6	4	2	2-8	1-6
Daylen Berry G	18	2	0	6	1-2	0-1
Pharrell Boyogueno G	10	0	1	1	0-1	0-1
Braylhan Thomas G	10	7	1	0	3-7	1-3
Ed Nnamoko F	8	2	2	0	0-0	0-0
Cam Christy G	2	2	1	0	1-2	0-0
Henry Harrison G	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Tai Hamilton, Kaleb Evans

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	WIN -20.5	WIN -19.8	SCST +0.7	L WIN covered
Total	157.5	155.7	Under 1.8	L Over
Projected score	—	SCST 67.9 · WIN 87.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WIN -11.8	WIN -9.0
1H total	72.9	81
1H projected score	SCST 30.5 · WIN 42.3	SCST 36 · WIN 45

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SCST LLLWW	3-4	43%	3-3	3-4
WIN LWWWW	6-1	86%	1-0	3-1

Venue/role: SCST away, as underdog; WIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SCST UUUOO	2-5	29%	0-7
WIN UOUUU	2-5	29%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SCSTlast 7	0-7 0%	3-4 43%	2-5 29%
WINlast 7	3-4 43%	6-1 86%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SCST 0–1 WINWIN leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · SCST 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 6, 2022-23	SCST 67 @ WIN 81	WIN -11.5	WIN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

SC State

7 games played

Straight up

0-7

0% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −4.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −5.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-70%

L L L L L L L

7 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

L W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@LOU	L 45-104	+35.5	L −23.5	159.5	U 149
Nov 7	@SAM	L 72-82	+14.5	W +4.5	154.5	U 154
Nov 10	@NCAT	L 62-85	+2.5	L −20.5	159.5	U 147
Nov 14	@COFC	L 61-88	+18.5	L −8.5	156.5	U 149
Nov 19	vsUTC	L 66-78	+11.5	L −0.5	154.5	U 144
Nov 23	@SDAK	L 81-82	+15.5	W +14.5	160.5	O 163
Nov 25	@MIZ	L 66-98	+34.5	W +2.5	160.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LOU

L 45-104

−23.5

SAM

L 72-82

+4.5

NCAT

L 62-85

−20.5

COFC

L 61-88

−8.5

UTC

L 66-78

−0.5

SDAK

L 81-82

+14.5

MIZ

L 66-98

+2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LOU

L 45-104

−10.5

SAM

L 72-82

−0.5

NCAT

L 62-85

−12.5

COFC

L 61-88

−7.5

UTC

L 66-78

−10.5

SDAK

L 81-82

+2.5

MIZ

L 66-98

+3.5

over 2under 5avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Winthrop

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +9.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsQUC	W 81-74	-3.5	W +3.5	163.5	U 155
Nov 7	@GMU	L 90-96	+9.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 186
Nov 11	@CCU	L 66-72	-2.5	L −8.5	165.5	U 138
Nov 15	vsMER	W 105-69	-2.5	W +33.5	162.5	O 174
Nov 18	@ARK	L 83-84	+23.5	W +22.5	168.5	U 167
Nov 23	@JKST	W 80-62	-10.5	W +7.5	163.5	U 142
Nov 25	@NEB	L 73-80	+14.5	W +7.5	166.5	U 153

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

QUC

W 81-74

+3.5

GMU

L 90-96

+3.5

CCU

L 66-72

−8.5

MER

W 105-69

+33.5

ARK

L 83-84

+22.5

JKST

W 80-62

+7.5

NEB

L 73-80

+7.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +9.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

QUC

W 81-74

−8.5

GMU

L 90-96

+39.5

CCU

L 66-72

−27.5

MER

W 105-69

+11.5

ARK

L 83-84

−1.5

JKST

W 80-62

−21.5

NEB

L 73-80

−13.5

over 2under 5avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

SC State @ Winthrop

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

SC State

Winthrop

SC State

Winthrop