Kansas City Roos at Weber State Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 29, 4:00 PM ETDee Events Center · at Weber St

Final

#313WEBWeber St82▲ winner

Closing lineWEB -10.5✓ WEB covered by 10.5

Closing total155.5Under by 12.5

Season records: Kansas City and Weber St
KC	This season	WEB
0-5	Record	1-4
1-4	ATS	4-1
2-3	O/U	2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: KC 74–82 WEB · ✓ WEB (76%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
KC	23	38	61
WEB	35	47	82

1st half: KC 23, WEB 35 (WEB by 12). The model had WEB by 4.7 and a total of 72.7 (actual 58).

Team stats

KC		WEB
24-56 43%	Field goals	29-55 53%
6-20 30%	3-pointers	10-23 43%
7-14 50%	Free throws	14-20 70%
24 7 off	Rebounds	41 11 off
12	Assists	18
11	Steals	6
1	Blocks	4
13	Turnovers	15
17	Fouls	15
32	Points in paint	34
8	Fast-break points	8

Players

KC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
CJ Evans G	32	11	2	2	4-10	0-1
Jayson Petty G	31	13	3	4	5-10	3-5
D'Andre Harrison F	14	4	2	0	1-3	0-1
Kernan Bundy G	9	0	1	0	0-2	0-2
Addarin Scott F	8	4	4	1	2-3	0-0
Bench
Karmello Branch G	25	8	3	1	3-10	2-7
Jerome Palm F	24	13	5	1	6-8	0-0
Chris Dockery F	18	2	2	0	1-4	0-1
Kasheem Grady II G	14	0	1	2	0-1	0-1
Jamaria Clark G	14	5	0	0	2-3	1-2
Baba Mbengue C	8	1	0	1	0-0	0-0
Trey Booker-Lowery G	3	0	0	0	0-2	0-0

Did not play: Max Sims, Cory Curtis Jr., Jason Hilliard

WEB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tijan Saine Jr. G	32	11	1	5	3-6	0-1
Viljami Vartiainen G	29	17	4	1	6-11	5-10
Malek Gomma C	28	4	8	5	1-4	1-1
Jace Whiting G	24	12	1	2	5-7	2-4
Edwin Suarez Jr. F	23	16	12	2	7-13	0-0
Bench
Trevor Hennig G	30	13	0	3	4-8	1-4
Nigel Burris F	24	9	7	0	3-6	1-3
David Hansen F	4	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
ArDarius Grayson G	3	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Declan Cutler C	2	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Duce Paschal G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Bourgeois Tshilobo, Tyler Christensen, Anthony Moore, Brady Smith

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	WEB -10.5	WEB -8.1	KC +2.4	L WEB covered
Total	155.5	155.3	Under 0.2	W Under
Projected score	—	KC 73.6 · WEB 81.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WEB -4.7	WEB -12.0
1H total	72.7	58
1H projected score	KC 34 · WEB 38.7	KC 23 · WEB 35

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KC LLWLL	1-4	20%	1-3	1-4
WEB WWWWL	4-1	80%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: KC away, as underdog; WEB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
KC OOUUU	2-3	40%	0-5
WEB OUUOU	2-3	40%	1-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KClast 5	0-5 0%	1-4 20%	2-3 40%
WEBlast 5	1-4 20%	4-1 80%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kansas City

5 games played

Straight up

0-5

0% wins

Against the spread

1-4

20% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg +2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-50%

L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-420%

L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-340%

O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@SIU	L 78-101	+12.5	L −10.5	141.5	O 179
Nov 11	vsIONA	L 91-105	+4.5	L −9.5	156.5	O 196
Nov 15	@TEX	L 55-71	+31.5	W +15.5	159.5	U 126
Nov 19	@TCU	L 45-81	+23.5	L −12.5	150.5	U 126
Nov 24	@LIN	L 67-80	+4.5	L −8.5	152.5	U 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SIU

L 78-101

−10.5

IONA

L 91-105

−9.5

TEX

L 55-71

+15.5

TCU

L 45-81

−12.5

LIN

L 67-80

−8.5

covered 1didn’t cover 4avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SIU

L 78-101

+37.5

IONA

L 91-105

+39.5

TEX

L 55-71

−33.5

TCU

L 45-81

−24.5

LIN

L 67-80

−5.5

over 2under 3avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Weber St

5 games played

Straight up

1-4

20% wins

Against the spread

4-1

80% covers · avg +5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg +8.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-420%

L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-180%

W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@UTAH	L 89-92	+15.5	W +12.5	148.5	O 181
Nov 12	@USU	L 73-83	+22.5	W +12.5	156.5	U 156
Nov 15	@UCI	L 70-79	+11.5	W +2.5	151.5	U 149
Nov 19	vsCAM	W 91-85	-1.5	W +4.5	159.5	O 176
Nov 22	vsUTA	L 73-74	-2.5	L −3.5	149.5	U 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTAH

L 89-92

+12.5

USU

L 73-83

+12.5

UCI

L 70-79

+2.5

CAM

W 91-85

+4.5

UTA

L 73-74

−3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 1avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTAH

L 89-92

+32.5

USU

L 73-83

−0.5

UCI

L 70-79

−2.5

CAM

W 91-85

+16.5

UTA

L 73-74

−2.5

over 2under 3avg +8.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Kansas City Roos at Weber State Wildcats

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Kansas City

Weber St

Kansas City

Weber St