1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 28
  3. TROY @ UTC
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 28

Troy Trojans at Chattanooga Mocs

McKenzie Arena · at Chattanooga
#147TROYTroy
@
#226UTCChattanooga
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
TROYThis seasonUTC
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TROY 77–74 · win probability TROY 62%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 150.6
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TROY has more of the edges

TROY 3, UTC 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
TROYBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: TROY 36.2, UTC 29.7. Allowed: TROY 31.4, UTC 42.6
TROYBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: TROY 34.5%, UTC 21.8%. Defensive: TROY 68.3%, UTC 68.3%
Context
Schedule so far
TROY has played the 166th-hardest schedule, UTC the 306th. A record against a soft schedule means less
TROYBig
TROY offense vs UTC defense
Offense 143rd of 366 against a defense 270th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: TROY plays 69.6 a game (141st fastest), UTC 67.6 (249th). Faster games mean more points
UTCSmall
Home court
UTC at home. This season: UTC 0-0 at home, TROY 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: TROY 11%, UTC 32%. Transfers in: TROY 6, UTC 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
UTC offense vs TROY defense
Offense 193rd of 366 against a defense 162nd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
TROY hits 33.0% and allows 31.6%; UTC hits 35.0% and allows 34.2%. Threes are 45.9% and 49.2% of their shots
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: TROY 51.5 and allows 50.2; UTC 54.2 and allows 51.7
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: TROY 17.3%, UTC 14.5%. Forced: TROY 16.7%, UTC 13.1%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TROY -3.4—
Total—150.6—
Projected score—TROY 77 · UTC 73.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadTROY -2.1—
1H total70.4—
1H projected scoreTROY 36.3 · UTC 34.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Troy 1, Chattanooga 1, even 3
TroyBetterChattanooga
G R. Davis TR9.9 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 14
UTCBig
G T. Darner9.8 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.8 ast Score 49
G D. Oday TR18.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 95
No call
G S. Cusano2.5 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked
G J. Hutchinson TR12.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.3 ast Score 76
Even
F T. Houser TR14.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.8 ast Score 68
F C. Diggs TR10.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 59
TROYBig
F Y. Levy TR5 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.7 ast Score 18
F K. Kiel3.6 pts · 3.5 reb · 1 ast Score 23
Even
F J. Bowman3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 22
TroyBetterChattanooga
TROY offense143rd of 366 · -4.3
TROYBig
UTC defense270th of 366 · -6.8
TROY defense162nd of 366 · -3.6
Even
UTC offense193rd of 366 · -5.9
Backcourt+1.4 · 3 players
TROYBig
Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players
Frontcourt-1.0 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-1.6 · 3 players
Bench-2.0 · 4 players
Even
Bench-1.1 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestTROY betterUTC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Troy
Guards
R. Davis31 min · TRD. Oday30 min · TRJ. Hutchinson29 min · TRH. Awata2 minJ. KontuniemiNewR. ValakouNew
Forwards
C. Diggs23 min · TRK. Kiel16 minM. Ikegwuruka13 min · TRS. Walters9 min · TRE. Griffin5 min
Centers
A. PachecoNew
Chattanooga
Guards
T. Darner29 minS. Cusano13 minH. Holland11 minL. VittersNewM. HamptonNewT. PowellNew
Forwards
T. Houser33 min · TRY. Levy21 min · TRJ. Bowman12 minA. SwiftNewC. HardawayNew
Centers
J. FleemanNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
TROYUTC
Scoring
77.3 #110Points per game74.1 #192
1.11 #113Points per possession1.10 #132
69.6 #141Pace (possessions)67.6 #249
Shooting
51.5 #171Effective FG%54.2 #60
33.0 #2293-point %35.0 #116
45.9 #473-point attempt rate49.2 #18
36.2 #147Free throw rate29.7 #319
Possessions
17.3 #226Turnover rate14.5 #40
34.5 #59Offensive rebound rate21.8 #358
15.0 #86Assists per game14.3 #127
Defense
74.5 #178Points allowed78.1 #269
1.07 #128Points allowed per possession1.15 #325
50.2 #111Opponent effective FG%51.7 #195
31.6 #47Opponent 3-point %34.2 #195
16.7 #173Turnovers forced13.1 #351
68.3 #243Defensive rebound rate68.3 #240
7.2 #107Steals per game5.0 #336
3.3 #169Blocks per game2.5 #305
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Troy

20-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-6 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Nebraska47–76
  • Wvs GA Southern77–61
  • Wvs Southern Miss78–70
  • Wvs UL Monroe80–65
  • Wvs Louisiana78–59

A week or more of rest.

Chattanooga

10-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs The Citadel85–88
  • Wvs VMI86–79
  • Lvs UNC Greensboro80–85
  • W@ The Citadel93–72
  • W@ Mercer94–90

A week or more of rest.